Friday , 28 October 2016

The Stock Market Will NOT Rise Indefinitely So Here Are 10 Investment Rules To Live By

As the markets are propelled higher by the successive interventions of the  Federal investing-2Reserve, it is hard not to think that the current rise will continue indefinitely, but the reality is that markets cycle from peaks to troughs as excesses built up during the up cycle are liquidated…This time…[will be no] different…[so what’s an investor to do? Below] are 10 basic investment rules that have historically kept investors out of trouble over the long term [and hopefully will for you as well]. 

So writes Lance Roberts ( in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled 10 Investment Rules to Live By.

[The following article is presented by  Lorimer Wilson, editor of and and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Roberts goes on to say in further edited excerpts: The 10 rules below are not unique by any means but rather a list of investment rules that in some shape, or form, has been uttered  by every great investor in history.

1) You are a speculator – not an investor

Unlike Warren Buffet who takes control of a company and can affect its  financial direction you can only speculate on the future price someone is  willing to pay you for the pieces of paper you own today.  Like any  professional gambler the secret to long term success was best sung  by Kenny Rogers; “You gotta know when to hold’em…know when to  fold’em”

2) Asset allocation is the key to winning the “long  game”

In today’s highly correlated world there is little diversification between equity classes.  Therefore, including other asset classes, like fixed  income which provides a return of capital function with an income stream, can  reduce portfolio volatility.  Lower volatility portfolios outperforms over  the long term by reducing the emotional mistakes caused by large portfolio  swings.

3) You can’t “buy low” if you don’t “sell high”

Most investors do fairly well at “buying” but stink  at “selling.”  The reason is purely emotional driven primarily by “greed” and “fear.”  Like  pruning and weeding a garden; a solid discipline of regularly taking  profits, selling laggards and rebalancing the allocation leads to a healthier portfolio over time.

4) No investment discipline works all the time but sticking to discipline always works

Growth, value, international, small cap or bonds all have had times when they topped the charts in terms of return.  However, like everything in life, investment styles cycle.  There are times when growth outperforms value, or international is the place to be, but then it changes.  The problem is that by the time investors realize what is working they are late rotating into it.  This is why the truly great  investors stick to their discipline in good times and bad.  Over the long term sticking to what you know, and understand, will perform better than  continually jumping from the “frying pan into the fire.”

5) Losing capital is destructive – missing an opportunity is not

As any good poker player knows, once you run out of chips you are out of the  game.  This is why knowing both “when” and “how  much” to bet is critical to winning the game.  The problem for  most investors is that they are consistently betting “all in all of the time.” as they are afraid of “missing out.”  The  reality is that opportunities to invest in the market come along as often as  taxi cabs in New York city.  However, trying to make up lost capital by not  paying attention to the risk is a much more difficult thing to do.

6) Your most valuable, and irreplaceable commodity, is “time”

Since the turn of the century investors have recovered, theoretically, from two massive bear market corrections.  After 13 years investors are now back  to where they were in 2000 if we don’t adjust for inflation.  The problem is that the one commodity that has been lost, and can never be recovered, is “time.” For investors getting back to even is not an investment strategy.  We are all “savers” that have a limited amount of time within which to save money for our retirement.  If we were 15 years from  retirement in 2000 – we are now staring it in the face with no more to show for it than what we had over a decade ago.  Do not discount the value of “time”  in your investment strategy.

7) Don’t mistake a “cyclical trend” as  an “infinite direction”

There is an old Wall Street axiom that says the “trend is your  friend.”  Investors always tend to extrapolate the current trend into infinity.  In 2007 the markets were expected to continue to grow as investors piled into the market top.  In late 2008 individuals were convinced that the market was going to zero.  Extremes are never the  case. It is important to remember that the “trend is your  friend” as long as you are paying attention to, and respecting, its direction.  Get on the wrong side of the trend and it can become your worst  enemy.

8) If you think you have it figured out – sell  everything

Individuals go to college to become doctors, lawyers and even circus  clowns.  Yet, every day, individuals pile into one of the most complicated  games on the planet with their hard earned savings with little, or no, education  at all. For most individuals, when the markets are rising, their success breeds confidence.  The longer the market rises; the more individuals attribute their success to their own skill.  The reality is that a rising market covers up the multitude of investment mistakes that individuals make by taking  on excessive risk, poor asset selection or weak management skills.   These errors are revealed by the forthcoming correction.

9) Being a contrarian is tough, lonely and generally right

Howard Marks once wrote that: “Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy.  Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, since momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions look correct for a while. (That’s why it’s essential to remember that  ‘being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being  wrong.’) Given the uncertain nature of the future, and thus the difficulty of  being confident your position is the right one – especially as price moves  against you – it’s challenging to be a lonely contrarian.”

The best investments are generally made when going against the herd.   Selling to the“greedy” and buying from  the “fearful” are extremely difficult things to do without a very strong investment discipline, management protocol and intestinal fortitude.  For most investors the reality is that they are  inundated by ”media chatter” which keeps them from making logical and intelligent investment decisions regarding their money which, unfortunately, leads to bad outcomes.

10) Benchmarking performance only benefits Wall Street

The best thing you can do for your portfolio is to quit benchmarking it against a random market index that has absolutely nothing to do with your goals, risk tolerance or time horizon.  Tom Dorsey summed this up well by stating  that:

Comparison in the financial arena is the main reason clients have trouble patiently sitting on their hands, letting whatever process they are comfortable with work for them. They get waylaid by some comparison along the way and lose their focus. If you tell a client that they made 12% on their account, they are very pleased. If you subsequently inform them that ‘everyone  else’ made 14%, you have made them upset. The whole financial services industry,  as it is constructed now, is predicated on making people upset so they will move their money around in a frenzy. Money in motion creates fees and commissions.  The creation of more and more benchmarks and style boxes is nothing more than the creation of more things to COMPARE to, allowing clients to stay in a  perpetual state of outrage.”

The only benchmark that matters to you is the annual return that is specifically required to obtain your retirement goal in the future.  If that rate is 4% then trying to obtain 6% more than doubles the risk you have to  take to achieve that return.  The end result is that by taking on more risk  than is necessary will put your further away from your goal than you intended when something inevitably goes wrong.

It’s all in the risk

Robert Rubin, former Secretary of the Treasury, changed the way I thought  about risk when he wrote: “As I think back over the years, I have been guided by 4 principles for decision making:

  1. the only certainty is that there is no  certainty,
  2. every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of  weighing probabilities,
  3. despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act and lastly,
  4. we need to judge decisions not only on the results,  but on how they were made.

Most people are in denial about uncertainty.  They assume they’re lucky, and that the unpredictable can be reliably forecast.  This keeps business brisk for palm readers, psychics, and stockbrokers, but it’s a terrible way to deal with uncertainty.  If there are no absolutes, then all  decisions become matters of judging the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of each.  Then, on that basis, you can make a good  decision.”

It should be obvious that an honest assessment of uncertainty leads to better decisions, but the benefits of Rubin’s approach goes beyond that.  For starters, although it may seem contradictory, embracing uncertainty reduces risk while denial increases it.  Another benefit of “acknowledged  uncertainty” is it keeps you honest.  A healthy respect for uncertainty, and a focus on probability, drives you never to be satisfied with your conclusions.  It keeps you moving forward to seek out more information, to question conventional thinking and to continually refine your  judgments and understanding that difference between certainty and likelihood can  make all the difference.


The reality is that we can’t control outcomes; the most we can do is  influence the probability of certain outcomes which is why the day-to-day management of risks and investing based on probabilities, rather than  possibilities, is important not only to capital preservation but to investment  success over time.

[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]


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