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“The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History” – By Harry S. Dent Jr.
The most important cycle change for your wealth, health, life, family, business, and investments is just ahead during the first and last depression you are likely to experience in your lifetime. Words: 418
Below are further edited excerpts (by Lorimer Wilson) from Harry S. Dent Jr.’s (www.hsdent.com) book ‘The Great Depression Ahead’ in which he advises, in detail, how we should deploy our assets in the 2010s based on his demographic approach to forecasting.
1. Late 2009 to mid-2010:
a) Sell commodities and commodities and energy stocks.
b) Allocate 100% to T-bills or money markets and safe currencies.
2. Mid- to late 2010:
Start to allocate to 30-year Treasury bonds only after their yield begins to spike.
3. Late 2010 to mid- 2011:
a) Allocate to 20-year corporate bonds when yields go to extremes.
b) More conservative investors should focus on AAA corporate, more aggressive investors toward BAA.
c) All investors must recognize, however, that even high-quality bonds will be in question as to their viability, given that the downturn between mid-2009 and 2012 is anticipated to be more extreme than anything we have seen since the early 1930s, mid-1970s, or early 1980s.
4. Mid-2011 to mid-2012:
Allocate to long-term municipal bonds when yields seem to be peaking (high-tax-bracket investors).
5. Mid- to late 2012:
a) Aggressive/growth investors: allocate majority into Asian stocks and lesser into U.S. multinational, technology and health care, with minor allocation in long-term corporate, Treasury, or municipal bonds.
b) Conservative investors: focus largely on 10- to 30-year Treasuries and 20-year corporate AAA bonds, with minor allocations in multinational, health-care, and Japanese stocks.
6. Late 2011 to early 2015:
Look for selected opportunities in real estate (small condos and starter homes early on; vacation and retirement homes later; trade-up homes by 2015).
7. Mid- to late 2014:
Aggressive/growth investors: allocate more to leading stock sectors such as China, India, health care, multinational, technology, and financials on a likely short-term correction between late 2013 and late 2014.
8. Early to mid-2017:
a) Sell stocks in all sectors.
b) Convert largely back into long-term bonds and, to a lesser degree, into T-bills or money markets.
Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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Posted by Editor on Mar 7 2010, With 0 Reads, Filed under Asset Allocation, Investing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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