Saturday , 19 August 2017


Monthly Archives: December 2010

Stock Market Looking Too Good To Be True! Here's Why

From a historical standpoint, the dividend yield of 2% on the S&P 500 is too low. It smacks of a stock market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic in the sense that investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume that they will get the return via the capital gain. The last time S&P yields were around this level was in the summer of 2000, and we know what happened shortly after that! Words: 888

Read More »

Gold: The Ultimate Insurance Against Economic Armageddon

Most economists and investors still labor under the illusion that there’s a way out of debt that doesn’t involve a drastic reduction in the paper value of wealth but smart investors aren’t so sure and want at least a portion of their assets out of the financial system, i.e. in gold bullion. Words: 649

Read More »

The Dollar Bear Is Returning In 2011! Got Gold?

These days it is almost impossible to find anyone who is long-term bearish on [the U.S. dollar], the stock market or the economy but I think they are all going to be wrong - horribly wrong. I believe that in 2011 inflation will spike horribly, the dollar will collapse, the stock market will begin its third leg down in the secular bear market and the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one. Words: 555

Read More »

Your Gift For 2011: The HUI Is Going Up 70% In The Next 5 Months!

The Holiday Season often tends to usher in strength for the Precious Metals Sector and this is especially true for those Holiday Seasons which are related in a fractal pattern. Indeed, we expect to see a sharp rise (approx. 70%) in the HUI Index starting the week after Christmas with a secondary run-up into May of 2011. Words: 360

Read More »

Why Economy May See Another Flight to Safety in 2011

While growth of the global economy is sluggish and the outlook for meaningful improvements looks bleak, in a world with few options, muddling along doesn’t look so bad - and the U.S. is doing just that, due in large part from the aggressive stimulus policies. The question is, however, whether or not it will continue. Words: 761

Read More »

History Suggests Stocks Should Go Up Approx. 18% in 2011! Here's Why

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy in 2011 [but not for U.S. stocks if the history of] the Presidential Cycle is any indication. The third year of a president’s [four year] term is typically the strongest producing an average annual gain of 14.12% for the S&P 500 and, under Democratic leadership, that number moves even higher to an average gain of 17.7%! Words: 436

Read More »

Upcoming Market Decline Will Be Worse Than Last Time – Here's Why

Bernanke has massively increased the monetary response in an attempt to halt the secular bear, and we know how the last attempt to control the market turned out - we got the second worst recession since the Great Depression and the second worst bear market in history. I fully expect the next leg down in the secular bear to be even worse that the last one - not only in the stock market, but also in the economy. Words: 525

Read More »

Europe Has Its PIGS, America Its CAIN and Un(Abel) – Both Will Be Good For Gold

In Europe, they were able to come up with a clever moniker, PIGS, to succinctly represent [and name the countries in dire financial straights - Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece and Spain] the most boorish animals on the farm, and [I have taken it upon myself to call the U.S. state budget crises] the story of CAIN (California, Arizona, Alaska, Illinois, New York and New Jersey), the seven most rotten pillars of our union, and (Un)Abel, the country as a whole, which is (Un)Abel, i.e. unable, to do anything about the impending crises. Given the current political climate and implicit anti-bailout mandate of the new Congress, the Federal government might be powerless to do anything but accept painful state defaults. Before we know it, we could all be ancestors of evil... 2011 could be the year that CAIN starts to face some serious trouble, and may need some serious help to avoid killing his brother (Un)Abel! Words: 1529

Read More »

Why Quantitative Easing WILL NOT Help the Economy – But WILL Help Gold and Other Commodities!

At present, the governors of the Fed are creating massive distortions in the financial markets with little hope of improving real economic growth or employment... Quantitative easing promises to have little effect except to provoke commodity [gold and silver] hoarding, a decline in bond yields to levels that reflect nothing but risk premiums for maturity risk, and an expansion in stock valuations to levels that have rarely been sustained for long (the current Shiller P/E of 22 for the S&P 500 has typically been followed by 5- to 10-year total returns below 5% annually). [Let me explain.] Words: 3066

Read More »