Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660
So says Alasdair Macleod (www.goldmoney.com) in edited excerpts from his original article*.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) edited the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
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Macleod goes on to say:
The one chart which defines the background to all the events [that will unfold] in the coming years is the Mises Institute’s True Money Supply (TMS) for the US dollar. TMS consists of cash, checking accounts and no-notice deposit accounts, as well as a few other minor cash balances. It represents the actual cash and electronic cash in the system that is instantly available for purchases of goods and services, and the chart goes back to 1959.
The Hyperbolic Course of the True Money Supply
The dotted line [in the graph above] is the exponential growth trend, in other words the maximum rate of growth that can continue for ever. This trend was valid until mid-2002…[at which time the] TMS began accelerating at a faster rate telling us that TMS growth [had] entered a hyperbolic phase when the Fed eased rates in the wake of the dot-com collapse. Put another way, TMS is already hyperinflationary.
Bear in mind that economists are now telling central banks to accelerate monetary growth even faster to offset the tendency for bank credit to contract. They see no other way to avoid a bank balance sheet implosion with all the deflationary consequences that implies. [As such,] the prospects for 2012 and thereafter are for TMS to continue its hyperbolic trend…[as it] supply funds for a government deficit completely out of control. Also bear in mind that when such a trend becomes established it becomes almost impossible to stop, since the whole debt-based economy and the banking system would collapse.
The Hyperbolic Course of the Price of Gold
The chart [below] shows gold’s established hyperbolic course…[as] put together by Armand Koolen… In Koolen’s words, the hyperbola fits in with the official gold price in the early 1900s, the revaluation to $35 in 1934, the onset of the secular bull market in 2001, the bottom in October 2008 and its approximate track since then.
His discovery is interesting. Singularity for this curve, or the point where the gold price goes to theoretical infinity, is in February 2014, only 26 months away. Unless this long-term trend is somehow broken, gold is also telling us the dollar is heading for hyperinflation.
It would be a mistake to vest magical powers in such an extraordinary discovery, but given [that] TMS itself is showing signs of going hyperbolic we must sit up and take notice… [It will prove to be virtually impossible] to stop printing money at an accelerating rate [as evidenced by the fact that when the ECB showed a reluctance to do so it threatened]… to collapse the eurozone. Will the Fed pull the trigger on the US economy or chicken out? The answer is clear.
What Does the Future Hold?
We can expect:
- a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…
- followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation
- nominal interest rates will then rise at the market’s behest
- bringing a sovereign debt crisis for the dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…
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1. Egon von Greyerz Interview on Future QE, Hyperinflation and the Price of Gold
A final or total catastrophe of the currency system will occur as a result of unlimited money printing that will lead to hyperinflation. Stock markets will benefit temporarily from this QE [but we expect that the] markets will fall 90% against gold in the next few years. The correction in the precious metals [will] likely [soon] be over and we should see the metals going to new highs in 2012. Words: 450
Everyone must be wondering where this “unprecedented global financial crisis”, (the World Bank’s words), is heading. What follows, for what they are worth, are my cogitations on this crisis. Words: 1641
3. Continuing High Unemployment = More Money Printing = Higher Gold & Silver Prices
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate set by Congress of maximum employment and stable prices. During Chairman Bernanke’s most recent press conference he indicated that the Federal Reserve has done a better job of maintaining price stability while falling short of fostering maximum employment. [As such,] we believe the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the monetary base and weaken the dollar as long as unemployment remains elevated. While the economy (measured by real GDP) and the unemployment rate have not benefited from a substantial increase in the monetary base, the price of gold and silver have benefited from money printing. We believe this statement is quite important for monetary policy and for investors. [Let us explain further.] Words: 388
4. The U.S. is Headed Toward a Complete and Utter Collapse of its Financial System
The U.S. is headed inexorably toward a systemic failure, a complete and utter collapse of the financial system. TARP and all the other machinations have not improved the underlying insolvency of the banking system. They have, however, deferred a collapse and ensured that it will ultimately be worse. [Let me explain.] Words: 1385
It all comes down to this: We have to match growth to debt. If we can’t create miracles from growth, we have to consider inflation to reduce the value of our debt. [Those are the] only two ways out of our current global economic mess – innovation and inflation. As the saying goes, we should hope for the best (more innovation) and prepare for the worst (higher inflation). [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 1195
6. Alf Field’s 7 “D’s” of the Developing Disaster Revisited
When the supply of something is increased sharply relative to demand, the value of that commodity will decline. If the supply continues to increase rapidly and indefinitely, then that item will become worth less and less, with the potential to finally become nearly worthless. This is the Developing Disaster facing the US Dollar and the world. This is the factor that could become the single most important criterion in investment allocation decisions and possibly even for individual financial survival…[Let me explain this further by reviewing the 7 major problems facing the U.S. (and thus the world) and how they all will lead to problem #7 – devolution.] Words: 1520
It is my view that the world has entered a new boom-bust cycle driven by oil prices. Oscillating oil prices – as opposed to credit cycles – will repeatedly stimulate and crash the highly levered global economy. Governments have not recognized this new cycle, and as part of a fruitless effort to retain control over deteriorating real growth and rising unemployment central banks will print more and more money, risking a hyperinflationary depression (stagflation at best). [As such,] the only respite for many investors is gold. [Let me explain.] Words: 925
8. Why Negative Real Interest Rates + Stimulative Money Supply = $10,000/ozt. Gold
Question: What do you get when you mix negative real interest rates with stimulative money supply efforts by global central banks? Answer: An exceptionally potent formula for higher gold prices that could send gold to the unimaginable level of $10,000 an ounce. [Let me explain further.] Words: 1049
9. Niall Ferguson: U.S. Playing “Russian Roulette” Assuming Interest Rates Will Remain Low
Countering Krugman’s argument that today’s low interest rates show that no one is worried about lending money to us and, therefore, that we should borrow and spend our way to prosperity, Ferguson argues that today’s interest rates are irrelevant. When countries get into trouble, he says, they get into trouble quickly – the way Greece and…
10. Debt Bubble: We’re in a Dangerous New Phase – Here’s Why
The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Largarde, said Friday the world economy is entering a “dangerous new phase.” Lagarde is referring to a debt bubble, the likes of which the planet has never seen before, and the possibility that it could all unravel at any moment. Uncertainty over the debt crisis in Europe is what caused the Dow to crash more than 300 points at the end of last week. What is Lagarde going to do about the debt problem? Words: 1752
The kind of impact [our economy is] going to have will not be like flying into the side of a mountain. It will be the kind of crash that skids over land, clipping trees and buildings until the plane ends up wingless in a smoldering heap. I just hope the fuel tanks don’t ignite when the long rough ride is over. [Let me explain.] Words: 832
It really is hard to find the words to describe the true horror of the national debt of the U.S. The U.S. government has been on the greatest debt binge in all of human history, and a day of reckoning is coming that is going to be so painful that it is going to shock America to the core. We have lived so far above our means for so long that none of us really has any concept of what “normal” is like anymore. The United States has enjoyed the greatest party in the history of the world, but now this decades-old party is ending and the bills are coming due. Our current system is headed for an inevitable collapse. There is no way of getting around it – a horrific economic collapse is coming [and] it is going to change the world. You better get ready. [Let me explain further.] Words: 1771
The new [debt ceiling deal] legislation will add $2.4 trillion to the $14.3 trillion national debt in a little over a year – and we don’t even start saving money until after the debt reaches $16.7 trillion! This bill doesn’t even cut the deficit. It just slows the growth of government spending to around 8% a year! So, even if Congress cuts $2.1 trillion out of the budget over the next 10 years, we will still be running annual deficits of more than $1 trillion…[That means that in addition to a deficit that will continue to grow we can look forward to a shrinking economy, an imploding U.S. dollar and exploding inflation. Some future! Let me explain.] Words: 827
14. What Would USD Collapse Mean for the World?
I came to the conclusion several years ago that it was just a matter of time before the world realized that the relative functionality of the U.S. dollar was about to go belly up – to collapse – and that that time happened to coincide with that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012! Words: 881
If the debt ceiling deal agreement is fully implemented [it is only going to exacerbate America’s financial and economic woes and accelerate the demise of the U.S.] Dollar Standard which is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its demise is imminent. The only question is will it be death by fire—hyperinflation—or death by ice—deflation? Fortunes will be made and lost depending on the answer to that question. [Let me explain how the collapse of the dollar could well unfold.] Words: 944