Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna tracks payroll tax receipts as a measure of real-time labor market health [see an earlier article on that chart and a host of others here] and the latest data for the current quarter show receipts growing 6% year-over-year. [It brings into question all those purveyors of doom who claim that a recesssion is just around the corner.]
So says Mamta Badkar (www.businessinsider.com) in edited excerpts from the original article*.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Badkar goes on to say:
By no means is the economy booming, but continued labor income growth similar suggests that a recession is not imminent. We will be watching to see if the upcoming employment data corroborate this view. [Below is said chart:]
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*http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-tax-receipts-suggest-recession-isnt-imminent-2012-7#ixzz210mAce1a (To access the above article please copy the URL and paste it into your browser.)
Editor’s Note: The above article may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
We love charts….so we reached out to some of the world’s most influential analysts, economists, hedge-funders and traders and asked them a simple question: “What charts are you always keeping your eye on?” [Here they are!] Words: 440
The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don't see imminent recession. Here's why.] Words: 1315
Econintersect has been playing with an economic index based on the world as seen by Joe Sixpack. For lack of a final name, we have used a development tag of “Joe’s Index” which is based on Joe’s real income and the change in his home value, which, to various degrees, Joe sees as income (and/or wealth) gain or loss. Joe’s Index is indicating Joe Sixpack is coming back to the consumption trough. [Let us explain why we have come to that conclusion.] Words: 380
Why read: It is foolish not to consider the possibility of depression, particularly in the face of the preponderance of commentary over the past many months that rampant inflation is on the horizon. [Here I review, analyze and comment on one such article on that possibility.] Words: 697
This past week we received the latest PMI readings for the world as a whole (48.9), the eurozone (46.4), and for 30+ individual countries [Read: Telling It Like It Is: Latest PMIs Reveal Truth About the Global Economy]…and the latest numbers signal contraction and even more so when adjusted to reflect the concentration of GDP by countries/region. [Let me explain.] Words: 600
I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher….Let’s take a look at why. Words: 530
“The most important issue in this year’s election is the economy. Unfortunately, this topic has now been “politicized,” which means that you can’t talk about it without being instantly cheered or jeered by fans of each respective political team…[the truth of the matter, however, is that] the economy is much more important than this year’s election or either political team….The first step is getting past the political blame-game and understanding what’s wrong…. Let’s go to the charts.”
The U.S. economic recovery has been weak and the looming fiscal cliff threatens to act as a further drag on the economy. Europe is imploding with the chances of a ‘Grexit’ increasing, and Spain’s economy deteriorating and risking contagion. David Rosenberg looks at the state of the U.S. and global economy via 51 depressing charts.
The deficits aren’t going to stop anytime soon. The debt mountain will keep growing…Obviously, the debt can’t keep growing faster than the economy forever, but the people in charge do seem determined to find out just how far they can push things….The only way for the politicians to buy time will be through price inflation, to reduce the real burden of the debt, and whether they admit it or not, inflation is what they will be praying for….[and] the Federal Reserve will hear their prayer. When will the economy reach the wall toward which it is headed? Not soon, I believe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of excitement. [Let me explain what I expect to unfold.] Words: 1833