I read many hundreds of articles every week looking for writers who have an in-depth understanding of our economy and who are not reticent to tell it like it is. Monty Pelerin (a pseudonym) does just that week after week, year after year. This post includes introductory paragraphs and links to 25 of his most enlightening and current articles. Take a look. There are bound to be several that will grab your interest.
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Without further delay, below are introductory paragraphs and hyperlinks to 25 articles representing just a sample of Monty Pelerin’s work as found in the Economy section of the munKNEE.com site. You won’t have time to read them all today so make sure you bookmark this page for future reference so you can come back to it when time permits.
Given the economic outlook, there seems little reason for stock prices to be as high as they are…This market could be called a “Madoff Market” in the sense that it is a Ponzi scheme, not the classic Ponzi scheme where exponential growth of new dupes is necessary to keep the scam going…but, rather, on exponential money creation. Fantasy is fun while it lasts but reality eventually intercedes and…[and it is] those way out in fantasy land [who] are especially vulnerable to disappointment [and] so it is for those betting on the stock market and an economic recovery. Let me discuss this further. Words: 1075
The question of how much gold or silver one should hold is a common one. The answer is usually expressed in terms of portfolio percentages, as in 10 – 20% of one’s investments. Such an answer is without basis. Why is 15%, for example, any better than 100% or 0%?
There is no recovery, regardless of what the elite and their minions in the media want you to believe. The economy is sick. It was made so by the malpractice of government and will become even weaker as government continues to administer the poison that got us to this point. The political class’s version of remedy is akin to the medical profession’s practice of bloodletting. Neither does any good and both, carried to extreme, are fatal. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 548
Politicians foolishly believe they can bend the laws of nature. They are fools for trying. Sadly, the pain and suffering that will be incurred will be borne by the millions of citizens dependent on markets and the economy. The economy cannot recover without a complete cleansing of the excesses that have built up over the last half century plus. [This article spells out why that is the case.] Words: 710
Those dependent on the welfare state are unaware that their benefits are not sustainable. Most believe tomorrow will be like today and the checks will keep coming from Mother Government. Political power was gained based on promising these benefits. No politician will risk his position by trying to reduce them. No democratic society has ever rolled them back via peaceful political means. [At worst,] the economy and society could end up in ashes [and, at best,] the world is in for a long period of stagnation, retrogression and conflict. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 1115
The world is hurdling toward what seems to be certain economic collapse so, if your expectations are similar to mine, then you should be exploring ways to prepare for something that eventually will become an economic dark age. Investment performance is always relevant and it has never been more important than in these difficult economic times – nor has it ever been more difficult. Markets have already changed and are getting worse…As the economy worsens, market movements [like the two 50% declines we have seen since 2000] are likely to become more pronounced [and, as such,] it behooves anyone with exposure to the stock market to understand what is happening and [take action to] protect themselves against further 50%, and possibly larger, downsides. [This article outlines how best to do just that.] Words: 1491; Charts: 2; Tables: 1
We are on the precipice of enormous financial and economic change. It is not change for the good, especially for the United States. Excesses and mis-allocated resources of several generations are about to be exposed as modern industrial nations sink deeper into the economic hole they have dug for themselves. The purging of these economic mistakes will be painful, could create new wars as politicians attempt to deflect blame and may end up changing the political form of government in some countries. (Words: 364; Charts: 1)
The USA continues to decline economically relative to some parts of the world, most notably those in Asia yet we still lead in many areas. Unfortunately being number one is some categories is not a good thing and our level of debt is one of these areas. In fact, our debt burden leads the world. [A look at the charts below illustrates that all too clearly.] Words: 272
The video* below is one of the best overviews of what is going on and one of the best explanations of what lies ahead that I have heard. As such, in my opinion, it is A Must Watch!
Investment “rules” that were relevant for a century are obsolete. They were based on a world where economies grew, people’s standard of living increased and outcomes tomorrow better than today. Arguably each of these conditions will not hold in the future but if they don’t, neither do the rules of thumb that guided investing last century. These guiding principles developed and worked in a world that that no longer exists but applying them in the future will result in devastating financial outcomes. [Let me explain.] Words: 1261
The corrosive nature of politics and government has destroyed the economy and the moral fiber of citizens. These issues are not insurmountable, but they are very close to being so. Their ramifications are potentially existential in nature: the average length of life, the very time span or cycle of a nation has been proven in history to be approximately 250 years. Since the USA was born in 1776 this says we have about 14 years of life remaining for America. The way things are going we don’t doubt it. [Let me explain.] Words: 768
Governments everywhere are becoming more distressed and desperate as economic realities dominate the political doublespeak. The world is at a dangerous point. Much of what we thought we knew and assumed regarding governmental behavior and economics is beginning to be reassessed. Governments of the world are out of money and out of ideas. The ponzi scam that has been perpetrated for over fifty years is collapsing under its own weight. There are not enough suckers and capital left to sustain the fraud. [Let me explain further.] Words: 999
The coming economic collapse (Depression) is inevitable but the route taken to this ending is uncertain. The road has parallel routes, either a deflationary collapse or a hyperinflationary collapse. Which route is taken depends upon government so, which will it be? Words: 1350
We are in the latter stages of the debt death spiral where debt and interest payments can only be made by adding more debt. This process has a sure ending. Like the flush of a toilet, the spiral goes faster and faster until it finally ends. [Let me put forth just how serious the problem is.] Words: 431
At the risk of looking/sounding like some crazed religious fanatic usually seen carrying a sign or proclaiming: “Repent, the end is near,” I shall avoid the word “repent”. To me, the rest of that proclamation appears accurate and reasonable, at least with regard to our economic condition. [Let me explain:] Words: 1896
Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but…unless deficits are dramatically reduced…. interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595
Is this the time to acquire gold? Or is this the time to run away from it? Either answer could be correct, depending upon what course government chooses. Government is at a decision point, one that will determine how our economic malaise next turns. [Let's review their choices.] Words: 922
When government is wounded, trapped and desperate, it lashes out like a wild animal. Survival in the political class is just as strong a drive as it is in the wilderness. I don’t know how government will lash out, but you are likely to see laws, restrictions and behavior you never imagined….Washington has demonstrated it will “print money” in whatever quantities necessary to stave off a sovereign bankruptcy and a Great Depression but this strategy cannot work forever because existing debt is already too high to be serviced. It is only a matter of time before the U.S. economy succumbs – unless it engineers a ‘soft default’ [which will save it's ass and get you shafted! Let me explain.] Words: 1394
Comments I have made that “when this [financial crisis] finally ends the big winners are apt to be the ones who have lost the least purchasing power. Keeping score in nominal dollars is likely to be meaningless. Gold tends to hold its purchasing power regardless of what happens to fiat currency.” have prompted questions about a) how to achieve such purchasing power with physical gold when this stage is reached, b) how to go about buying things with gold coins and c) how gold would be utilized under the assumption that a barter system would develop when dollars become worthless. [Let me explain.] Words: 700
The U.S. government has put us between the proverbial ‘rock and a hard place’. Cutting spending to improve our country’s financial situation would surely trigger rioting in the streets by those Americans most adversely affected yet not cutting spending will trigger much higher inflation – even hyperinflation – which will also result in rioting….Government cannot control how this ends. They may be able to tinker with the timing a bit and they still have the choice of poisons with which to destroy the country, [but] that the country is gone, that is no longer alterable. Words: 930
How this economic disaster ends is something about which many of us speculate. Two extreme endings are likely — a sudden deflationary collapse or a period of very high inflation/hyperinflation which ultimately cripples commerce and resolves itself in a deflationary collapse. In either case, the deflationary collapse is another Great Depression. It is important to know which route will occur because of what will happen to asset values along the way. Words: 1057
Money/credit expansion (inflation) is insidious and like an addictive drug. The first effects appear to be pleasant – a seeming increase, if not boom, in business; lower interest rates; more available credit and a decline in unemployment – BUT, unless the monetary stimulus is continued, and probably at increasingly higher doses, the temporary high disappears. Below is a sampling of what eventually happens when central bankers try to ‘help’ the economy by creating money out of nothing. Words: 799
Whether our current economic crisis will end with massive inflation or in a deflationary spiral (ultimately, either one results in a Depression) is more than an academic one. It is the single most important variable for near and intermediate term investing success. It is also important in regard to taking actions which can prepare and protect you and your family. [Here is my assessment of what the future outcome will likely be and why.] Words: 1441
The developed economies of the world have opened the money spigots…[and this] massive money and credit creation is sitting in the banking system like dry tinder just waiting for a spark to set it ablaze. How quickly it happens is anyone’s guess, but once it does we are likely to be enveloped in a worldwide inflation unlike anything before ever witnessed. [Let me explain further.] Words: 625
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