Americans, don’t think for one moment that the crises in Europe are irrelevant! This past April the U.S had the largest monthly decline in exports to Europe in the past 7.5 years and this trend will only get worse – much worse – as the crises spread and linger. Exports to Europe are now down 2.7% from April 2011, the first yearly decline since February 2010. The chart below says it all.
(The chart above is courtesy of Stone & McCarthy, Research Associates)
The easing of export growth does not bode well for the U.S. economy.
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I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher….Let’s take a look at why. >Michael “Mish” Shedlock< (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) Words: 530
“The most important issue in this year’s election is the economy. Unfortunately, this topic has now been “politicized,” which means that you can’t talk about it without being instantly cheered or jeered by fans of each respective political team…[the truth of the matter, however, is that] the economy is much more important than this year’s election or either political team….The first step is getting past the political blame-game and understanding what’s wrong…. Let’s go to the charts.”
The U.S. economic recovery has been weak and the looming fiscal cliff threatens to act as a further drag on the economy. Europe is imploding with the chances of a ‘Grexit’ increasing, and Spain’s economy deteriorating and risking contagion. David Rosenberg looks at the state of the U.S. and global economy via 51 depressing charts.
The deficits aren’t going to stop anytime soon. The debt mountain will keep growing…Obviously, the debt can’t keep growing faster than the economy forever, but the people in charge do seem determined to find out just how far they can push things….The only way for the politicians to buy time will be through price inflation, to reduce the real burden of the debt, and whether they admit it or not, inflation is what they will be praying for….[and] the Federal Reserve will hear their prayer. When will the economy reach the wall toward which it is headed? Not soon, I believe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of excitement. [Let me explain what I expect to unfold.] Words: 1833