We have been following analyst predictions for gold & silver mining stocks and precious metals streaming companies on Yahoo.com for some time now. In this article we document their current consensus price targets and take note of recent target changes where applicable.
So writes Itinerant in excerpts from his exclusive posting on seekingalpha.com entitled Precious Metal Analyst Watch – April Edition.
This post is presented compliments of Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds), www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and the Intelligence Report newsletter (It’s free – sign up here).
In the article, which can be read in its entitety here (it can not be reposted as it would infringe on the arrangement the author has with seekingalpha.com), Itinerant goes on to say:
We prepared three individual tables with our data:
- one for gold mining companies,
- one for silver mining companies; and
- one for precious metal streaming companies.
These three tables are displayed below with comments given below each table.
Judging from the data provided by analysts the picks for the three categories for April would have to be (continue reading)
Detour Gold Corporation (DGC) is down 42% in spite no significant negative event to account for it other than the general disfavor of gold stocks. If you are looking for a stock that is a steal, Detour Gold is such a stock. Let me explain why.
When the price of gold is mentioned as costing “x dollars per troy ounce” do you fully appreciate the signifance of the term “troy”? When looking to buy gold jewellery do you fully understand what the difference is between an item that is 10 “karat” gold and another item stamped 18 “karat” gold (other than that it is much more expensive)? Let me explain. Words: 587
Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don’t let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873
There will come a time, and based on current charts no one knows when, that prices for gold and silver will become prohibitive and/or governments will do what they can to inhibit (steal) ownership, maybe even making it criminal to own or use in transactions. [That being the case we advocate that you go “get”] physical gold and silver [while the getting is good], consistently and at any price. The point here is not to “make money,” but to preserve and/or create wealth. [Let me explain.]
While for the time being gold has bounced off long-term support, the XAU has signalled that there are still lower prices ahead for gold mining stocks.
Out of this doom and gloom, there are opportunities – major opportunities! Fear has taken over the stocks of the TSX Venture and the last time that happened, it was the greatest buying opportunity of our lifetime. So it is now. If you want to buy low, and later sell high, the bargains are now waiting to be plucked. How jealous everyone would be if you had the foresight to buy when prices were so cheap. So, what are you waiting for?
Gold miners have been an embarrassment. A dollar put in gold five years ago would be worth about a $1.70 today; that same dollar in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) would be worth only $0.80. What explains this sorry performance?
3 critical drivers for gold, silver and their relative securities [are once again enticing] investors to…take stakes here. These catalysts…affect both the short-term and long-term, and so, at the very least, a floor may be developing.
The precious metals complex is arguably at its most bearish sentiment since the start of the bull market 12 years ago. Either the bull market is over or this will prove to be a tremendous buying opportunity. It’s clear that anyone who doesn’t believe in Gold for the long-term has sold and judging from the sentiment indicators, Gold is now in much stronger hands than when it was trading at these prices at the 2012 and 2011 lows. Despite all of the bearish sentiment, the panic and bad-mouthing, Gold (and Silver) has maintained its consolidation. Thus, if Gold is able to hold this support and turn higher, it should approach $1750 to $1800 faster than one would think. This year will go down in history as one of the best buying opportunities for both the metals and the stocks. Words: 675; Charts: 3
Looking at the recent Gold Miners price action and crash-like conditions, I cannot hide my excitement. As we judge the recent cyclical bear market within the longer term secular uptrend, we can see that Gold Miners are becoming very attractive. Whether it is the technically oversold levels that only occur a handful of times over a generation, the rock bottom valuations on nominal or relative basis, or the extreme sentiment that the overall sector is going through, all of these indicators point to one conclusion: we are fast approaching a major buying opportunity. [I support that contention below with the use of 8 charts and a full explanation of each.] Words: 1133; Charts: 8
President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that’s good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there’s no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years – statistical anomaly or otherwise – it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1
The price of gold, on a quarterly basis, is 86% correlated – yes, 86%! – to total government debt going back to 1975… and a shocking 98% over the past 15 years! [As such,] it would seem like a no-brainer investment thesis to buy gold… as a proxy for the not-otherwise-investable thesis that US total government debt will increase in the future. [But there is more – and it is disappointment for gold bugs – read on!]
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< p>< p>< noscript>I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2
The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events. The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2
The timing of this article may seem incongruous given the current weak performance of gold and gold stocks but that was the identical situation in each of the past manias – both the metal and the equities didn’t excel until the frenzy kicked in. The following documentation (exact returns from specific companies during this era are identified) is actually a fresh reminder of why we think you should hold on to your positions – or start accumulating them, if you haven’t already. (Words: 1987; Tables: 7)
If similarities between the 5 major spikes in the price of gold since 2001 were applied to the 5th price spike (August, 2011) going forward it would not be unreasonable to expect a spike to $2,600 in June or July of this year and another spike – to somewhere between $4,700 and $5,050 – in January/February of 2015.
Analyst after analyst (in excess of 170 at last count) has been forecasting what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 43 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 400
The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies [and that] gold is just creating the conditions – a T-1 pattern – necessary for its next leg up to what I expect to be…around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. [Let me explain.] Words: 560; Charts: 3
Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1