Thursday , 16 August 2018


Economic Overviews

This Indicator Is A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008? Well, while these warnings (called yield curve inversions) are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years- followed relatively quickly by a recession - but are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.

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Gold Is the Latest Asset To Join the Global “Death Cross” Parade!

The crossing of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average has been long used a signal of trend change and...is known as the "death cross" and such death crosses are popping up in a large number of assets including, gold, silver, copper, bitcoin, China's stocks, Germany's DAX, Emerging Market stocks, bonds, and FX and, perhaps most ominously, the Global Most Systemically Import Banks (G-SIBs).

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Major Bear Market Risks Remain Low For the Next 6 Months – But Then What?

Successfully predict the start of the next recession, plus or minus a few months, and you stand to make a lot of money. Not only can you reposition your portfolio towards bonds and cash – typically the best place to be during periods of economic malaise – but you can also sell your stocks at or near the market’s peak. If your primary objective is to invest in sync with the primary trend of the market (which typically follows the economic business cycle), then predicting the onset of a recession is your most important task.

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Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade

What rankles Canadians the most is the total mischaracterization of the trade relationship and the complete denial by the Trump Administration as to the facts of the bilateral relationship. Let’s look at the overall situation and then some specific sectors that have been singled out in the cross-border trade disputes.

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The Data Says This Bull Market Still Has Legs

Over the next 12-18 months we expect the US market to outperform the rest of the world as we head into the final stages of this economic expansion. This article is a quarterly review our US macro indicators to see if they confirm or reject our primary macro thesis.

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