Economic Overviews

10 Possible “Grey” Swan Events For 2018

By definition it is impossible to predict black swan events but one can predict what their cousin, the grey swan, is up to. These are the unlikely events that lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community and Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has come up with 10 potential grey-swan events for 2018. Here they are!

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A MAJOR Political & Financial Upheaval/Revolution Is Underway

Today, we’re seeing the greatest political polarization since the Civil War, a debt and financial asset bubble that makes the Roaring 20s look like child’s play, and income inequality greater than that experienced in 1929 and the discovery of a rare convergence of three-long term cycles points to a revolution - a true revolution.

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NO ONE IS INTERESTED IN THE TRUTH – HERE IT IS!

Today everything must be dumbed down to the lowest common denominator of readers or viewers... Any news must be superficial and short. Most content must have an entertainment or gossip value. All serious matters are either left out or covered very briefly. We are now in the age of instant gratification. Viewers’ interest can only be kept by short superficial language, lots of big images and constant change of focus. No one is really interested in the truth but, nevertheless, here it is!

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What the Economic & Financial Tea Leaves Are Saying

My reading of the economic and financial tea leaves is that the economy continues to grow at a sub-par pace (about 2%), just as it has for the past 8 years. I don't see evidence of a coming boom, or of an imminent bust... just more of the same. Dull. Here are a baker's dozen charts, with the latest updates, to flesh out the story:

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