Economic Overviews

I use three approaches to shape my world view and then combine them to get a much clearer picture of what likely lies ahead. My goal today is to share with you how I come up with a view of the Big Picture and to share my outlook for 2013. Words: 873

Barron's have just come out with the forecasts of 10 top analysts and ALL their forecasts are positive. There is not a single forecaster who expects the S&P 500 to fall in 2013 and there is only one forecaster who expects the 10 year bond yield to fall from its current level of 1.7% and he only sees a 10 bps decline to 1.6%. [Look at the average forecasts for each item at the end of the post.]

One couldn't imagine any better Christmas gift for hard assets and stocks than Ben Bernanke's surprise introduction of QE4 right on the heels of QE3. Call the duo QE7. "QE7" promises to expand the monetary base far faster than the markets had been discounting [which is great for gold] and also raises the floor under stocks. I suspect we'll close 2012 with a run at the highs, and possibly climb just short of 1,600 on the S&P 500 sometime in Q1. As for Treasury bonds, well, could this spell the end of the bond market? [Let's look at the ramifications of QE4 more closely.] Words: 516

[The just announced] QE4 will see the Fed buying $85B per month in U.S. Tbonds and Fanny/Freddie bonds with newly printed dollars - essentially debasing the dollar by 1 $trillion per year. The cold reality, however, is that each time QE is launched we get less wealth-effect bang for the buck and more inflation and, IMO, by the time it's switched off in mid-2014, we will have a real-world inflation rate of 5%+. (Words: 863; Charts: 2)

As Ayn Rand said “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality” so, with apologies to Ayn Rand, let’s explore some examples of ignoring reality. (Words: 1132; Charts: 1)

We are in for a tough time for the next four years if the chart below, showing a big dive in economic development expectations, is any indication - ahd here is probably why that is the case. (Words: 200; Chart: 1)

Goldman Sachs has been out with a number of reports in recent weeks highlighting their positioning for 2013. While it's important to keep in mind that these kinds of reports are no holy grail... it is always good for brain storming and, after all, it's not like Goldman Sachs is a bunch of dummies.

Been too busy to stay informed about developments on the financial/economic scene this week? Here are links to 6 of the “best-of-the-best” articles which have been edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure you a fast and easy read. Enjoy!

Although our supposed leaders are presumably highly intelligent, educated, and knowledgeable, they act largely “brain-dead” as they lead the United States down an unsustainable path that guarantees eventual catastrophic financial destruction. Do you own enough gold and silver that you would feel safe in a such a financial melt-down? If not, why not? Words: 817

Wall Street has been transformed into a gigantic casino where people are betting on just about anything that you can imagine. This works fine as long as there are not any wild swings in the economy and risk is managed with strict discipline but, as we have seen, there have been times when derivatives have caused massive problems in recent years - the government bailout because of derivatives at AIG; the failure of MF Global because of bad derivatives trades; and the 6 billion dollar loss that JPMorgan Chase recently suffered because of derivatives - [but the next] derivatives panic that comes will destroy global financial markets, and the economic fallout from the financial crash that will happen as a result will be absolutely horrific. [Let me explain my contention.] Words: 1485