Wednesday , 12 December 2018


Inflation/Deflation

Bottom Line: Make Up Of Workforce Is Suppressing Wages

With unemployment claims as a % of the population hitting record lows in each of the past 4 years and a record number of job openings, we can be assured that there is precious little slack in the labor market so why do wage growth measures fail to provide accurate conclusions. The answer is that the overall labor composition has shifted toward lower paid entry level Millennials replacing peak earning Boomers heading into retirement. Let me explain with the help of some enlightening charts.

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Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation Expectations?

The claim that, in normal times, energy prices have a direct influence on long-term inflation expectations is puzzling, as it seems to imply that monetary policy is not able to offset price shocks even five or ten years down the road. If confirmed, it could have significant implications on how inflation dynamics are forecast. Hence, we believe that the claim warrants further scrutiny.

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