Tuesday , 23 January 2018


Inflation/Deflation

Which Measure of Inflation Is Closest to the Truth?

inflation

There is a strong belief that independent measures of inflation are false and not trustworthy. I address this issue and show how the rate of inflation is measured today, the historical background of it, and compare different methods to find out which one is closer to the truth.

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The Phillips Curve – What Must Be Done To Alleviate Persistently Low Inflation?

Inflation_Deflation2

There was a time when U.S. central bankers worried that inflation was too high, and they tried to bring it down. Now the opposite is true: the Federal Reserve is concerned that inflation has remained stubbornly low, and it’s trying to boost prices. The reason: persistently low inflation raises the risk that prices will actually start to decline. That’s bad news because it makes people less willing to borrow and spend—anticipating lower prices, consumers will put off spending—and could also lead to a fall in wages.

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Asset Inflation: We Should Begin To Worry

inflation

We are not yet hoarding toilet paper and baked beans, but the prospect that we will be driven to do so has already been signalled to us. This article draws on the evidence of extreme overvaluations in equities and bonds worldwide, and concludes the explanation lies increasingly in a greater perception of risk against holding cash, or bank deposits.

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What Goes Up Exponentially Eventually Drops Like A Stone – Got Gold?

bubbles

When growth becomes exponential the likelihood is that it won’t last and that there will a substantial move in the opposite direction. This article looks at the unsustainable trends in most asset classes, population numbers, inflation and credit growth and discusses the dire consequences that are most likely to unfold in the years to come as a result.

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What Inflation Actually Looks Like For Most Americans – and The Picture Is Not Pretty

inflation

I have long been a critic of government inflation statistics. Not so much with regard to the methodology they use, but because the measure of “average” inflation across the broad economy doesn’t really describe the inflation that the majority of Americans experience. I’ve written about that at length in several letters and now my good friend Ron Arnott, along with his associate Lillian Wu, presents us with a research paper that lays out what inflation actually looks like for most Americans – and the picture is not pretty.

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