Economy

I am worried about the possibility of a second dip - of a new recession beginning sometime in the next year or so - before the current recovery has had a chance to produce much improvement. Verbally-intuitively, the case for a second dip still seems pretty overwhelming to me. I take comfort in the knowledge that I tend to have a pessimistic bias, and in the fact that sophisticated quantitative models are generally putting the odds of a second dip quite low. On the other hand, successfully forecasting recessions has not been a strong point of quantitative models. Words: 1433

The market basically doesn't want a recovery right now. It loves high unemployment and a bad economy because it allows the Fed to keep rates at zero which is highly profitable for Wall St via the games that I described above. Of course our crippled economy is an absolute nightmare for the rest of us as we lose our jobs and our homes as Rome continues to burn. Words: 1248

Absolutely every currency in the world is going to reach its intrinsic value in the next few years. Basically all the governments are going to wind up destroying their national currencies. That won't be just an academic thing; it will have the consequence of destroying a lot of the middle classes around the world. That will likely create ugly political and sociological fallout. Words: 3299

Just as 2007 and 2008 were the years of subprime woes, 2010 will go down as the year of Option Adjustable rate Mortgage (ARM) resets. This crisis is about to unleash a fury no one's prepared for. It won't be as bad as subprime, of course — it'll be worse. Words: 557

It remains to be seen if we will experience a deflationary period, but if we do, obviously cash will be king. Always remember: the best have cash at tops and bottoms of markets. [Are you one of 'the best'?] Words: 453

Given that governments are reluctant to take their lumps now, what are the odds that they will do the right thing — outright default and debt restructuring — three years hence when the debt bubble is that much larger, the economy is in worse shape, and the pain of default and austerity is much higher than today's? The words "slim" and "none" come to mind. The world is firmly ensconced on the path to an inflationary depression. Words: 1119

It is clearly evident that America's debt picture is truly astronomical and, like the situation with Greece, the debt cannot, and never will, be repaid. Indeed, any way you look at it, the consequences for the United States, let alone the many other haunted economies, are grim, dismal - even disastrous. Words: 1166

Japan is flirting with becoming the Greece of the East. Japan’s legendary household and corporate savings are on a downward trend [and, while current] domestic savers have always been forgiving of the government’s overspending, when [their] savings become inadequate to fund the government’s drain, other investors will be much less sympathetic. Words: 508

If you think home prices have hit bottom and are now headed back up for good, think again! Round two is about to begin. Words: 552

In his April 2010 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist Prechter predicted that these same eight indicators would switch from bullish to bearish by May 7th. Considering the events on May 6th and 7th he is once again sounding prophetic. This is extremely important as the media would have you believe that the events of May 6th were the result of a "fat finger". Words: 1154