Tuesday , 28 January 2020


Economy

How Americans View Recent Trade With Canada & China

Most people are not experts on the subject of trade so perceptions of trade relationships in the public eye are still a crucial indicator of how one's country is doing vs. each other. If the majority of Americans think they are getting the short end of the stick on international trade, this sentiment ultimately affects how politicians campaign, how policy decisions are made, and the success of the wider economy. Today’s chart, breaks down the data from a recent Gallup poll on how Americans view the country’s trade relationships.

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This Indicator Is A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008? Well, while these warnings (called yield curve inversions) are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years- followed relatively quickly by a recession - but are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.

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Bottom Line: Make Up Of Workforce Is Suppressing Wages

With unemployment claims as a % of the population hitting record lows in each of the past 4 years and a record number of job openings, we can be assured that there is precious little slack in the labor market so why do wage growth measures fail to provide accurate conclusions. The answer is that the overall labor composition has shifted toward lower paid entry level Millennials replacing peak earning Boomers heading into retirement. Let me explain with the help of some enlightening charts.

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Gold Is the Latest Asset To Join the Global “Death Cross” Parade!

The crossing of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average has been long used a signal of trend change and...is known as the "death cross" and such death crosses are popping up in a large number of assets including, gold, silver, copper, bitcoin, China's stocks, Germany's DAX, Emerging Market stocks, bonds, and FX and, perhaps most ominously, the Global Most Systemically Import Banks (G-SIBs).

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Major Bear Market Risks Remain Low For the Next 6 Months – But Then What?

Successfully predict the start of the next recession, plus or minus a few months, and you stand to make a lot of money. Not only can you reposition your portfolio towards bonds and cash – typically the best place to be during periods of economic malaise – but you can also sell your stocks at or near the market’s peak. If your primary objective is to invest in sync with the primary trend of the market (which typically follows the economic business cycle), then predicting the onset of a recession is your most important task.

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Setting The Record Straight On Canada-U.S. Trade

What rankles Canadians the most is the total mischaracterization of the trade relationship and the complete denial by the Trump Administration as to the facts of the bilateral relationship. Let’s look at the overall situation and then some specific sectors that have been singled out in the cross-border trade disputes.

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