Thursday , 28 March 2024

Economy

China’s Debt Bomb & What Might Spark the Fuse

The ramp up in Chinese debt accumulation has been a leading concern of investors for years. The average total debt of emerging market economies is 175% of GDP, and skyrocketing corporate non-financial debt has launched China far beyond that number. The real question is: by how far? The answer is disconcerting, because nobody really knows. In today’s chart, we look at various estimates to the size of China’s debt bomb, its payload, and what might spark the fuse. Words: 354

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What Inflation Actually Looks Like For Most Americans – and The Picture Is Not Pretty (+2K Views)

I have long been a critic of government inflation statistics. Not so much with regard to the methodology they use, but because the measure of “average” inflation across the broad economy doesn’t really describe the inflation that the majority of Americans experience. I’ve written about that at length in several letters and now my good friend Ron Arnott, along with his associate Lillian Wu, presents us with a research paper that lays out what inflation actually looks like for most Americans – and the picture is not pretty.

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The “Greater” Depression Has Started & It’s Quite Different From the Last One

To most people, a depression means '30s-style conditions, and since they don't see that, they can't imagine a depression. That's because they know what the last depression was like, but they don't know what one is. It's hard to visualize something you don't understand...Nobody can predict with absolute certainty what this depression will be like...[but one] can be fairly well-assured it won't be an instant replay of the last one...To define the likely differences between this depres­sion and the last one, it's helpful to compare the situa­tion today to that in the early 1930s. The results aren't very reassuring.

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China’s Much Ballyhooed Attempt To Transition From A Manufacturing to Service Economy Means…

The Chinese government is [trying to]...transition the economy away from its reliance on manufacturing, which is shrinking, into a service economy [but is failing to accomplish this objective in spite of] a glorious debt-and-stimulus binge for the past few months. [Unfortunately,] these policies [may do nothing more than] add to the already insurmountable mountain of debt [of which] a good part is now going bad.

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Exodus From U.S. Dollar Has Begun – Got Gold? (+2K Views)

Before the U.S. dollar became the world's reserve currency that honor was held by Britain, then France, the Netherlands, Spain & Portugal and the U.S. dollar is no less susceptible to succumbing to the same change. In fact, many nations have been actively turning their back on the dollar over the past decade.

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What the Heck is Going on With the Dollar and “Fear”? (+2K Views)

People are once again fleeing into gold, silver. They’re dumping the dollar and stocks, and they’re betting big on volatility and fear. The irony is, though, that there is no fear according to the “fear index” that speaks of “complacency”. This utter disregard for reality by stock and bond investors, who now no longer feel the need to be compensated for the risks they’re taking, except at the very riskiest end of the scale, is one of the greatest accomplishments of central banks, and at the same time one of the greatest risks out there.

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Mexico’s Economy Showing Serious Signs Of Strain

Pemex, Mexico’s over-indebted, money-losing state-owned oil giant, appears to be in a state of terminal decline. To survive, it needs some last-minute reprieve or miracle...For the broader Mexican economy, Pemex’s woes are just part of the problem. With the overseas market for Pemex’s oil shrinking,...while the company’s production continues to crumble, Mexico will depend even more on its manufacturing sector but that too, is showing serious signs of strain.

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