Asset Allocation

For the moment, things are looking pretty good in the United States but...our financial markets are perfectly primed for a fall. Sadly, most people did not see the crash of 2008 coming, and most people will not see the next one coming either.

Since 2008 stocks have risen dramatically throughout every stage of quantitative easing but, when the various phases of quantitative easing have ended, stocks have always responded by declining substantially...only to eventually start rising again was a new round of quantitative easing. So what will happen this time?

No stock market crash (a decline greater than 15%) has occurred over the past 30 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen except on one occasion (the mini-crash of July/August 2011). As such, without an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe from experiencing a major stock market correction. On the other hand, if we have an official Hindenburg Omen, then a critical set of market conditions necessary for a stock market crash exists. As of September 19th, 2014, we have such a condition in the market...

To make sense of stocks, bonds and currencies, you need to discern some of the madness (convincingly irrational behavior by policy makers) that’s unfolding in front of our eyes. We assume no responsibility if you turn mad yourself in reading this analysis. Here it is.

Ever since the world suffered a near collapse of its economic and financial system in 2008, investors throughout the world have purchased physical gold in increasing volume. Everywhere, that is, except if you lived in the United States where the opposite was the case. Here's why.

Look for huge volume and accumulation in gold and silver over the next few weeks and in some high quality junior mining stocks. Negative capitulation followed by strong accumulation could be the indicator that the smart money expects gold and silver to bottom. The question for many is when this will occur. It should be soon as this correction in the junior miners has been one of the worst and longest in decades providing possibly a once in a generation buying opportunity.

The S&P 500 has rallied for three years in a row, without a significant correction. This puzzles many observers who consider equities to be overvalued. Many experts predicted a correction (or worse) this year - after predicting one last year which has not happened - so how high is the S&P 500 valuation, after all?

The ultra-wealthy are able to stay ultra-wealthy for a reason, and they are usually a step or two ahead of most of the rest of us, so do they know something that we don't? Yes, like any rational person should be able to see, they realize this financial bubble is going to end very, very badly and are making moves to protect themselves from the inevitable chaos that is coming.

It is frighteningly clear to any objective analyst and/or intelligent investor that the present bull market rally in stocks (2006-2014) is "beyond the pale" (outside the bounds of acceptable behavior) i.e. the excess valuation is dangerously above the market excesses of the 1920s.

Most of the hundreds of financial articles posted every week are just "financial entertainment" - unfounded forecasts, fear mongering or cheer-leading. That being said, there are a number of articles that are absolutely MUST READS if you want to become an informed investor and be in position to understand what is evolving in the financial environment and be in a position act accordingly. Here they are.