Friday , 20 April 2018


Stock Indices

Dow Theory: "Hats Off" to TRAN's "Heads Up"

Trading the TRAN all on its own will produce better returns than most systems when you have the power of the dominant Hurst cycles on your side - and all indications are that 'Sell in May' may be late this year ! Let me explain how the Dow Theory works and illustrate the ebb and flow of its signals with 2 charts. Words: 919

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S&P 500 is 45% Overvalued According to Reversion to Mean Analysis!

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without a crystal ball, we simply don't know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities [so let's do just that by looking at charts of the inflation-adjusted secular highs and lows and regressions to trend of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present so we can make some sense of it all]. Words: 682

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Dow Rebound From Last March 3rd Best on Record… But Are We Due For An Even Lower Low Soon?

[An analysis of the] 15 Dow recoveries since the origin of this legendary index in 1896 (excluding the Crash of 1929 which was an outlier), adjusted for inflation/deflation shows, in the chart below, that the current 470 day recovery (at time of writing) since its low in March 2009 is the 3rd best compared to all the other recoveries over the same period. That being said are we in for another one or two lows before the recovery takes off for good?] Words: 499

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Is the Stock Market Over-priced? These Charts Provide Some Insight

Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338

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Beware: The Dow 30’s Performance is Being Manipulated!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index – the oldest stock exchange in the U.S. and most influential in the world – consists of 30 companies and has an extremely interesting and distressing history regarding its beginnings, transformation and structural development which has all the trappings of what is commonly referred to as pyramid or Ponzi scheme. Words: 1233

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Ignore Your Financial Advisor: It's Time to Own Gold Not Stocks – Here's Why

I know quite a few people who are still invested in the stock market – if not up to their necks, then certainly for a lot of money. They smile knowingly and say, “Do you know a better place to have made money in 2010?” The answer is, “Yes – gold”, which is where I’ve been. Nevertheless, they do have a point: had I held less cash – and added Stocks to my portfolio – last year would have been even better than it was for my... [investment portfolio. That being said, I'm staying] out of the stock market until the FTSE reaches 3000 [and/or the Dow reaches 6,000 and/or so the S&P 500 reaches 600!] Words: 975

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The Greatest Bull Market in History is Underway! Here's Why

Recent market action is causing much anxiety [with] pundits hyperventilating about sovereign loan defaults. [Now,] after Ireland, their attention is focused on Spain and other European countries. The world seems to be filled with worryworts (which is bullish as the market always climbs a wall of worries) [- but worry not]. In terms of magnitude and duration, this bull market will surprise all. In fact, what investors are witnessing is one of the greatest bull markets on record. Within two years, the DJIA and the S&P will reach record highs. Beyond that, the S&P could well double from the current levels. Words: 852

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