Thursday , 28 March 2024

Stock Indices

Could Dow 20,000 be Just Around the Corner?

Most first quarter 2011 earnings reports are in and...over three-quarters exceeded expectations... [with] results showing a desirable combination of growing revenues, profitability and cash flow ... [As such,] today's stock market valuations are conservative compared to typical bull markets accompanied by investor enthusiasm. In the past, using 2011's estimated earnings, the average P/E ratio could easily be 15 and...that would put the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 15,000 today – about 20% above today's level. [Were we to] add in high optimism like the kind we've seen in other investments recently, a 20 P/E ratio would be possible - and the DJIA would be 20,000 – 60% higher [than it is today! Let's take a look at the possibility.] Words: 540

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Counterpoint: Equities Are NOT Overvalued

There are different ways to interpret corporate profits and different ways to measure them [and in this article I substantiate] my belief that profits are quite strong and that the market is almost certainly not overestimating their value [unlike other analysts who, in articles here and here, and using different criteria, have come to different conclusions. Please read all the various points of view and come to your own conclusions.] Words: 646

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5 Signs All is Not Right With the Markets (+2K Views)

A number of secondary indicators are showing worrisome negative divergences... indicating that the risk-reward tradeoff [for stocks] is becoming increasingly unfavorable. [As such,] the prospect of selling in May and going away is starting to sound good right now. [Let me explain.] Words: 536

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Dow Theory: "Hats Off" to TRAN's "Heads Up"

Trading the TRAN all on its own will produce better returns than most systems when you have the power of the dominant Hurst cycles on your side - and all indications are that 'Sell in May' may be late this year ! Let me explain how the Dow Theory works and illustrate the ebb and flow of its signals with 2 charts. Words: 919

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S&P 500 is 45% Overvalued According to Reversion to Mean Analysis!

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without a crystal ball, we simply don't know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities [so let's do just that by looking at charts of the inflation-adjusted secular highs and lows and regressions to trend of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present so we can make some sense of it all]. Words: 682

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Dow Rebound From Last March 3rd Best on Record… But Are We Due For An Even Lower Low Soon?

[An analysis of the] 15 Dow recoveries since the origin of this legendary index in 1896 (excluding the Crash of 1929 which was an outlier), adjusted for inflation/deflation shows, in the chart below, that the current 470 day recovery (at time of writing) since its low in March 2009 is the 3rd best compared to all the other recoveries over the same period. That being said are we in for another one or two lows before the recovery takes off for good?] Words: 499

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