Tuesday , 24 October 2017


Stock Indices

History Suggests Stocks Should Go Up Approx. 18% in 2011! Here's Why

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy in 2011 [but not for U.S. stocks if the history of] the Presidential Cycle is any indication. The third year of a president’s [four year] term is typically the strongest producing an average annual gain of 14.12% for the S&P 500 and, under Democratic leadership, that number moves even higher to an average gain of 17.7%! Words: 436

Read More »

Cycle Charts for the Dow, Gold and Oil Most Revealing!

Larry Edelson's proprietary cycle analyses suggests that we could experience declines in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 to 9,000 and 1,000, respectively, by April of 2011; a potential decline in the price of gold to as low as $1126 by August of 2011 and a decline in the price of crude oil to as low as $69 next year - before taking off to record highs. Words: 781

Read More »

Stock Markets Have Major UPSIDE Potential

The U.S. stock market finished the month of September with its best performance in 71 years, i.e. since September 1939. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as a benchmark of the total equity market, has gone up 10% since September 1 and all my analyses indicate that the market could see continued strength until at least sometime after the November elections. Words: 614

Read More »

Gold Will Go To $5,000 and the Dow To Above 27,000 by 2015

Warning! The forecasts you're about to read are controversial, and many will say I have lost my mind. No problem. Many have said the same about me numerous times in the past but the forecasts I speak of today are based entirely upon my proprietary trading models that... have successfully guided me and the investors that have followed me through every twist and turn in the economy and markets... since I developed them in 1982. Words: 895

Read More »

Dreaded "Hindenburg Omen" Indicator Suggests 77% Likelihood of Imminent Major Market Decline

The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [conversely, 23% of the time no significant market downturn occurred] and usually took place within the next forty-days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. The Omen was activated on the New York Stock Exchange on August 11 so the probability is that we will see a steep market decline sometime in September. Words: 871

Read More »

Siegel vs. Shiller + Bogle vs. Gross – On the Future of the S&P 500

The market is currently slightly over-valued now which is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. Eventually, however, interest rates will get to levels of at least 4% (which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I am no prophet but if I had to guess, I would think future returns will be somewhere between Bogle's and Shiller’s estimates, i.e. between 8% and 10%.

Read More »