Wednesday , 19 June 2019


Stock Indices

Investor Fear Gauge: What Everyone Should Know About VIX

VIX is the ticker symbol for the volatility index that the Chicago Board Options Exchange created to calculate the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 index for the next 30 calendar days. The formal name of the VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index [and informally as the investor fear guage]. Below is some introductory material on the VIX offered up in a question and answer format: Words: 915

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Relax! World's Stock Markets in Panic Mode but Its Not the End of the World – Yet

The plunge in global markets this week qualifies as a genuine panic according to the VIX index of implied equity volatility divided by the yield on 10-year Treasuries which measures how pessimistic the market is, and how much actual deterioration in the fundamentals there has been... [So,] are we finally on the cusp of "the end of the world as we know it"? Words: 437

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Dow Theory Signals New Bear Market is Imminent

In a first since the bear market bottom of March 9, 2009 and the Dow Theory bull market indication on July 24, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have signaled the beginning of a bear market. [Let us explain.] Words: 824

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This Pattern Forecast the Crash

Given that the financial system is now even more leveraged than it was during the tech bubble… and that we’ve added TRILLIONS in debt to the U.S.’s balance sheet...another systemic collapse [was to be expected and, in fact, was predicted by]... a stock market pattern that has occurred multiple times in the last century - and everytime it did, things got UGLY [- just like it is doing this time. Let's take a look.] Words: 422

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Don't Buy Yet – Wait Until a Renewed Uptrend is Confirmed!

[To say that the market has capitulated] implies that the market has bottomed and that now is a good time to buy stocks. In my opinion, that is completely wrong. The market is building momentum to the downside...[and] the odds are that the inevitable reactionary bounce is a short reprieve on the way further down. If the capitulation results in a new and meaningful uptrend (and that is a big “if”), we will see that in the charts. Words: 552

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Market Crash Will Hit By Christmas 2011! Here's Why

At the beginning of 2011 USA Today reported...[that] Ned Davis Research says the S&P 500 will make a run at the 2007 high of 1,565, hit a “midyear peak” [and] then it will crash as interest rates rise...concluding that “the midyear peak could mark the end of the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 and the start of a new cyclical bear market.” Words: 637

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Why the Dow Could Hit 20,000 by 2014

To move up from the current 12,600 level to 20,000 by the summer of 2014, the Dow would need to rise about 16.5% each year or about 58% in a three-year period and in the past 25 years the Dow has risen by this much on at least 13 occasions. During those times, there was only one period of sustained annual gains, when the Dow rose an average of 26% from 1995 through 1999. The key question: what would it take to justify a three-year, steady, robust gain? It all comes down to corporate profits [and the extent to which] multiple investors are willing to assign [dollars] to these profits. [Let me explain.] Words: 761

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Any Way You Look At It the S&P 500 is Overvalued In Excess of 40%!

The S&P 500 is considerably overvalued - somewhere in the range of 34% to 61% - depending on which of 4 market valuation indicators are used and whether the valuation is based on the arithmetric or geometric mean of each. While these findings are not useful as short-term signals of market direction...they play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns and suggest a cautious outlook and guarded expectations. [Here are the details.] Words: 676

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A Violent Correction Is Coming For the S&P 500! Here's Why

Valuation-based forecasting models leave little doubt that stocks are priced to deliver very poor long-term returns and the cyclical bull market from 2009 is an extreme move that will almost certainly be followed by a violent correction. [Let me explain.] Words: 701

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