Williams: Expect Hyperinflation Within the Next 5 Years
March 10, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations, yet the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out. Words: 1096
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Risk for the Economy is Deflation, NOT Inflation
March 9, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Presently, the federal government is increasing spending that in the end may actually retard economic activity, and is also proposing tax increases that will further restrain private sector growth. In other words, fiscal policy is executing a program that is 180 degrees opposite from what it should be to stimulate the economy. How is it possible to get an inflationary cocktail out of deflationary ingredients? Words: 1461
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Coming Currency Debasement Good for Gold
March 9, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
When I look strictly at what’s actually going on in the world, I have to think that gold will go to at least $2,000 in this cycle and there are very credible scenarios in which it could go to a multiple of that number. Why am I so bullish for the yellow metal? Let me tell you why. Words: 469
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A Look into the Future for Stocks, the Dollar, and Gold
March 8, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The only, truly accurate and profitable way to invest in the markets is to understand and quantify the markets differing personalities, which is what the rigorous study of market cycles does for you. Right now, for instance, although we are starting to see more negative news come to the forefront (as compared to the last nine or 10 months where the market was rallying), I can assure, the negative news you are hearing will pale in comparison to the news that will come out in the months ahead as the 40-month cycle for stocks turns down. Words: 1065
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Stocks are Now Overbought, Overvalued and on Borrowed Time: Credit Suisse
March 3, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The cards may be stacked against equities in 2010. After one of the most spectacular rallies in the history of the equity markets from its March, 2009 low stocks are now arguably overbought, overvalued and on borrowed time Words: 773
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Belt-Tightening Too Soon Would Cause World to Sink into Deflationary Quicksand
March 3, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
While belt-tightening is indeed required cutting too fast would tip the West back into slump and kill tax revenues, solving nothing – a risk that austerity priests rarely acknowledge. Pacing is everything. Words: 620
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Crisis and Aftermath: Economic Outlook and Risks for the US
February 28, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
This boom will be pleasant while it lasts. It might go on for a number of years, in much the same way many people enjoyed the 1920s. Be that as it may, we have failed to heed the warnings made plain by the successive crises of the past 30 years, and this failure was made clear during 2008–09. The most worrisome part is that we are nearing the end of our fiscal and monetary ability to bail out the system. In 2008–09 we were lucky that major countries had the fiscal space available to engage in stimulus and that monetary policy could use quantitative easing effectively. In the future, there are no guarantees that the size of the available policy response will match the magnitude of the shock to the credit system. Words: 2262
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Will Risk ‘Aversion’ be King Throughout 2010?
February 27, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
After the global financial system was on the brink of collapse in late 2008, it became apparent in early 2009 that disaster had been averted. When Bernanke announced that he saw “green shoots” in the U.S. economy, it was a green-light for global investors to start dipping their toes back in the water. Gradually investors started feeling better about the world and as they felt better, they started taking on more risk. It was a shift in focus, away from the mandate of “return OF capital” back toward one of “return ON capital.” So, what’s in store for 2010? Will it be risk aversion or risk taking? Words: 884
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Why the Fed MUST Continue to Buy Its Own Debt
February 26, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The FED chose to solve the problem of too much debt by creating even more debt by taking the unprecedented action of buying it’s own debt under euphemisms like “quantitative easing” and “debt monetization” and also covert buying to artificially force negative real return rates of interest. Through this course of action, the FED so far has been able to turn what would have been a rapid deflationary collapse into a decaying inflationary depression which is euphemistically called “a recession that is now over”. Words: 955
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Is Gold a Buy at Today’s Price?
February 26, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
There is enormous embedded inflation already and more to come. The high-powered money has already been created; it is leveragable and it is there to increase velocity. It is politically expedient for policy makers to inflate away the burden of existing and future US debt repayment. As such, higher prices must follow. Words: 908
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