What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? Are we optimistic about the future? America has turned into a giant confidence game. The governing elite spend their time spinning stories about recovery and manipulating public opinion so people will feel good and spend money. Facts are inconvenient to their storyline. The truth is for suckers. They know what is best for us and will tell us what to do and when to do it. [Let me give you some examples.]

So says Jim Quinn (www.theburningplatform) in edited excerpts from his original article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Quinn goes on to say, in part:

The false storyline last week was the dramatic surge in new jobs. This fantastic news was utilized by the six banks that account for 80% of the stock market trading to propel the NASDAQ to an eleven year high and the Dow Jones to a four year high. The compliant corporate press did their part with blaring headlines of good cheer. The entire sham was designed to make Joe the Plumber pull out one of his 15 credit cards and buy a new 72 inch 3D HDTV to watch the Super Bowl. When you watch a CNBC talking head interviewing a Wall Street shyster realize you have the 1% interviewing the .01% about how great things are.

What you most certainly did not hear from the brain dead twits on CNBC and MSM is that:

• the NASDAQ is still down 42% from its 2000 high of 5,048 and
• the S&P 500 is trading at the exact same level it reached on April 8, 1999.

12 or 13 years of zero or negative returns are meaningless when a story needs to be sold. Last Friday the hyperbole utilized by the media mouthpieces was off the charts, leading to an all-out brawl between the critical thinking blogosphere and the non-thinking ”professionals” spouting the government sanctioned propaganda. Accusations flew back and forth about who was misinterpreting the data.

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I found it hysterical that anyone would debate the accuracy of BLS (Bureau of Lies & Swindles) data. The drones at this government propaganda agency relentlessly massage the data until they achieve a happy ending. They use a birth/death model to create jobs out of thin air, later adjusting those phantom jobs away in a press release on a Friday night. They create new categories of Americans to pretend they aren’t really unemployed. They use more models to make adjustments for seasonality. Then they make massive one-time adjustments for the Census. Essentially, you can conclude that anything the BLS reports on a monthly basis is a wild-ass guess, massaged to present the most optimistic view of the world. The government preferred unemployment rate of 8.3% is a terrible joke and the MSM dutifully spouts this drivel to a zombie-like public. If the governing elite were to report the truth, the public would realize we are in the midst of a 2nd Great Depression.

The unemployment rate during the Great Depression reached 25%. Without the BLS “adjustments” the real unemployment rate in this country is 23%. Cheerleading and packaging the data in a way to mislead the public does not change the facts:

• The data being dished out by the government on a daily basis does not pass the smell test! The working age population since 2000 has grown by 30 million people. The number of people working has grown by only 4.7 million. A critical thinker would conclude the unemployment rate should be dramatically higher than the reported 8.3% but the government falsely reports the labor force has only increased by 11.8 million in the last eleven years. They have the gall to report that 17.9 million Americans just decided to leave the workforce. The economy was booming in 2000. It sucks today. Don’t more people need jobs when times are tougher? The Boomers retiring storyline has already proven to be false. The fact that 46 million (15% of total population) people are on food stamps is a testament to the BLS lie. A look at history proves how badly the current figures reek to high heaven:
  • 2000 to 2011 – Not in Labor Force increased by 17.9 million.
  • 1990′s – Not in Labor Force increased by 5 million.
  • 1980′s – Not in Labor Force increased by 1.7 million.
• The Not in the Labor Force category is utilized to hide how bad the employment situation in this country really is. They conclude that 17 million out of 38 million Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 are not in the labor force. That is complete bullshit! From the time I turned 16, I worked. Everyone I knew worked. I worked through high school and college. It is a lie that 45% of these people don’t want a job. If you dig into their data, you realize the horrific state of employment in this country:
  • 74% of 16 to 19 year olds are not employed
  • 85% of black 16 to 19 year olds are not employed
  • 31% of black 25 to 54 year old men are not employed
  • 40% of 20 to 24 year olds are not employed
  • 22% of 25 to 29 year old males are not employed
  • 22% of 50 to 54 year old males are not employed
  • According to the BLS, 11% of men between 25 and 54 are not in the labor force

“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

In light of the unfolding global sovereign debt fiasco that has turned out to be less of a waterfall and more of an avalanche [than anticipated I present below a description of the 5 stages of collapse and discuss our preparedness. If you haven't read it yet, perhaps you should.] It has been read by 70,000+ people so far – and is still being read by an average of 1,500 people each month – on my site alone.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth.

Applying the Kübler-Ross Model to Economic Collapse

Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of:

• resource depletion,
• catastrophic climate change and
• political impotence.

So far, [however,] little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found a continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s “Long Emergency,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

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For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases.

Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point. Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, for example, [did not deprive the population of] food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. Many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout [the decline. Even though] there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse [and this] allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States…

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase [of collapse] to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual…

The 5 Stages of Collapse

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed [to] resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

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Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition…Let us sketch out this process.

Stage 1 (Financial) Collapse Scenarios

Stage 1 collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts:

1. a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development.
2. men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “fucked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘fucked up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the U.S. the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems…fit to do is:

• extend further credit to those in trouble,
• set interest rates at far below inflation,
• accept worthless bits of paper as collateral and
• pump money into insolvent financial institutions.

This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

Stage 2 (Commercial) Collapse Scenarios

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example:

• repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population.
• promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defence forces to maintain law and order.
• order the Army Corps of Engineers to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced.
• reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent.

With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. 

A much more likely scenario, however, is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests and:

• impose austerity conditions,
• maintain law and order through draconian means, and
• aide in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations.

As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

Stage 3 (Political) Collapse Scenarios

After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more”…

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 (Social) Collapse Scenarios

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

Stage 5 (Cultural) Collapse Scenarios

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book The Mountain People. If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

Conclusion

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

(In light of the unfolding global sovereign debt fiasco, I have issued an update [which I urge you to read. In it I come to the conclusion that, after] almost four lost years of both government and finance betting on a future that cannot exist, doubling down every time they lose again, the Five Stages of Collapse was nothing but a nice theory.

The [actual] effect, I think, will be to compress financial and political collapse into a single chaotic episode. Commercial collapse will not be far behind, because global commerce is dependent on global finance, and once international credit locks up the tankers and the container ships won’t sail. Shortly thereafter it will be lights out.)

*http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

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So says Prieur du Plessis (www.investmentpostcards.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* which is of such a nature that, as editor editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) I present a live hyperlink directly to the article rather than providing an edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

*http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/01/23/baltic-dry-index-%e2%80%93-sell-off-overdone/

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Lorimer Wilson is editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds). The views and conclusions of the email below are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

George Soros…is more concerned with surviving than staying rich…He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of “evil.” Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether. [Perhaps] we should be, too, [but as] we have often explained, [such comments ar nothing more than] the fear-based promotions of the power elite to frighten the middle classes into giving up power and wealth to globalist institutions. Let us explain. 

So says an article* posted at www.TheDailybell.com that I encourage you to read.

*http://www.thedailybell.com/3535/Soros-Threatens-Blood-on-the-Streets

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So says Mike Larson (www.moneyandmarkets.com) in edited excerpts from his original article*.

 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Larson goes on to say, in part:

What is QE – REALLY?

QE is money printing by a country’s central bank – and…

• it devalues the currency of the country doing the printing,
• it erodes the purchasing power of the country’s citizens,
• it inflates the price of commodities, making every gallon of gas you buy and many of the groceries you purchase more expensive,
• it drives down the yield on virtually all of your savings vehicles, forcing you to scrounge for pennies in your couch cushions or take on huge risks to generate the same amount of income you made previously and
• it artificially boosts the value of paper assets, including everything from junky bonds to stocks.

In other words, if you’re an average American, you get screwed, but if you’re a seven-figure-salary investment banker at Goldman Sachs, you hit paydirt. You can peddle more stocks and bonds, make a lot of money doing so, and maybe afford a new Ferrari or house in the Hamptons. Ain’t life grand?

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The fatal flaw of QE, though, at least in terms of its impact on the REAL economy, is those pesky side effects. Sure, QE temporarily juices stock prices but because it also drives up the cost of living, it drives down the disposable income of everyday citizens. Eventually prices rise so high that no one can afford them, and that’s when the economy collapses…

What to Do

Never mind that [QE] won’t work, at least if by “work,” you mean help the real economy. Fed policymakers like Ben Bernanke aren’t going to let the facts get in the way of a good story. They need to look like they’re not just sitting on their hands so they’re going to keep doing the same wrong things, expecting a different result.

The best way to protect yourself is to own some gold, own select fixed income investments that do NOT pose excessive risk, and own select stocks with solid fundamentals.

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/fed-pledges-low-rates-forever-what-it-means-48834?FIELD9=2

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1. 2012: More Money-printing Leading to Accelerating Inflation, Rising Interest Rates & Then U.S. Debt Crisis! Got Gold?

Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660

2. IMF Begs Policymakers to Prevent World Economy From Falling into a 1930s-style Death Spiral!

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) painted a stark picture of the global economy this week slashing the outlook for world growth while forecasting a damaging recession in Europe that will leave no country, including Canada and the U.S., unscathed. The report stated that financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated and, as such, policymakers must immediately move forward together to save the world economy from falling into a 1930s-style death spiral because the longer corrective action is put off the worse it will actually get. Words: 640

3. Why More QE is Coming and What That Means for the Future Price of Gold

Most traders and some economists believe the Fed will step in with another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) in the first half of 2012. This will pump up the stock market, particularly bank stocks, giving the impression that the US economy can’t be that bad, after all, [but in the process] debase the dollar and reduce purchasing power. [This, in turn, will result in higher]…inflation causing prudent investors to buy more gold. [Let me explain further what I see transpiring this quarter and why.] Words: 718

4. These 5 Apocalyptic Engines Causing Hyperbolic Growth in US Money Supply

I recently wrote an article showing how US True Money Supply (TMS) appeared to be growing at a hyperbolic rate [see here], and that gold was also on a hyperbolic course…Hyperbolic growth in the quantity of money ends with hyperinflation… [and] both TMS and the dollar price of gold are pointing to a hyperinflationary outcome. This article explains why this might be so. Words: 764

5. Economic System a Legal Ponzi Scheme on the Verge of Collapse!

Countries around the world, particularly in the West, are hopelessly in the red, with debt rising every day. Even worse, politicians seem paralyzed, unable — or unwilling — to do anything about it. It is a global disaster that threatens the immediate future… [Let me explain.] Words: 1132

6. What is Money – Really – and Why Do We Need to Own Gold – Really?

Have you ever wondered what money really is [and why we need to own some gold as a result]? You’ll notice that everyone you read has a strong opinion , but who’s right? [Let look at the situation and see if we can come to an answer that we both can agree on.] Words: 3086

7. Egon von Greyerz Interview on Future QE, Hyperinflation and the Price of Gold

A final or total catastrophe of the currency system will occur as a result of unlimited money printing that will lead to hyperinflation. Stock markets will benefit temporarily from this QE [but we expect that the] markets will fall 90% against gold in the next few years. The correction in the precious metals [will] likely [soon] be over and we should see the metals going to new highs in 2012. Words: 450

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) painted a stark picture of the global economy this week slashing the outlook for world growth while forecasting a damaging recession in Europe that will leave no country, including Canada and the U.S., unscathed. The report stated that financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated and, as such, policymakers must immediately move forward together to save the world economy from falling into a 1930s-style death spiral because the longer corrective action is put off the worse it will actually get. 

So conveys an article written by Eric Lam (www.financialpost.com) which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Lam goes on to say, in part:

In its January World Economic Outlook update, the IMF cut its projection for global growth in 2012 to 3.3%, down 70 basis points from its forecast in September. The global economic body blamed this largely on a “mild recession” expected this year after the eurozone entered a “perilous new phase” toward the end of 2011.

Eurozone Outlook

The IMF now expects the eurozone to contract by 0.5% in 2012, a full 1.6-percentage-point cut from the September forecast, before returning to minimal growth of 0.8% in 2013.

Canadian Outlook

Canada, which has become a relative economic bright light thanks to a rigorous financial regulatory system, will not escape the wrath of a European implosion with the IMF now forecasting 1.7% growth in 2012, a 20-basis-point cut.

“Watch out for the links between commodity prices and Canada. That has been very important the past two years,” Mr. St-Arnaud said. The IMF has also scolded Canada for its excessive housing market in the past, even as the Bank of Canada continues to expect household balance sheets to widen.

American Outlook

The United States will fare slightly better, growing by 1.8% in 2012, unchanged from earlier predictions. While there have been glimmers of positivity in recent economic data from the U.S., a strong recovery from supply-chain disruptions after the Japanese earthquake, and stabilizing oil prices, these are not expected to be significant-enough developments to sustain momentum going forward.

Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging markets are also expected to slow because of fallout from the euro crisis, with growth cut to 5.4% (down 70 basis points) including a 70-basis-point trim to 7.3% for developing Asia. China is expected to grow 8.2%, an 80-basis-point cut.

IMF Report Dire For Good Reason

The IMF Report said that:

“The current environment — characterized by fragile financial systems, high public deficits and debt, and interest rates close to the zero bound — provides fertile ground for self-perpetuating pessimism and the propagation of adverse shocks, the most critical of which is a worsening of the crisis in the euro area. Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated.”

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Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, warned in a speech in Berlin earlier this week that the new forecasts, dour as they are, nevertheless assume a “constructive policy path that is by no means assured” and called on policymakers to save the world economy from falling into a 1930s-style death spiral going on to say:

“The longer we wait, the worse it will get. The only solution is to move forward together. Our collective economic future depends on it. Why did 2011 turn out so badly? Put simply, policymakers let an old wound fester, and in doing so made the situation worse. From this perspective, 2012 must be a year of healing.”

*http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/24/imf-slashes-world-outlook/

Why spend time surfing the internet looking for informative and well-written articles on the health of the economies of the U.S., Canada and Europe; the development and implications of the world’s financial crisis and the various investment opportunities that present themselves related to commodities (gold and silver in particular) and the stock market when we do it for you. We assess hundreds of articles every day, identify the best and then post edited excerpts of them to provide you with a fast and easy read.

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1. Why Did the Baltic Dry Index Collapse? Here’s Why

The Baltic Dry Index is generally viewed as a leading indicator of global economic activity as dry bulk primarily consists of commodities such as building materials, coal, metallic ores and grain. My research, however, indicates that global manufacturing demand has very little to do with it but, rather, Chinese manufacturing demand – but not the actual level of manufacturing as measured by the CFLP Manufacturing PMI. [Let me explain.]

2. George Soros Predicts Economic Chaos/Conflict in Europe and Riots in the U.S.!

George Soros…is more concerned with surviving than staying rich…He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of “evil.” Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether. [Perhaps] we should be, too, [but as] we have often explained, [such comments ar nothing more than] the fear-based promotions of the power elite to frighten the middle classes into giving up power and wealth to globalist institutions. Let us explain.

3. Bank of Canada Report Suggests Economic Situation is Dire and Could Deteriorate Rapidly!

One typically doesn’t look to government bureaucracies to receive hard-nosed, objective discussions on the economy so you can magine my surprise when the latest Financial System Review, published semi-annually by the Bank of Canada, landed in my inbox and I discovered that it contained a very sobering look at Canada’s economy and the many systemic risks the country is facing! It’s not surprising that this report was not picked up by the main stream news, because if they did the popular opinion of Canada’s invincible, recession-proof economy might begin to crumble. [Let me explain.] Words: 2400

4. Where Is This Unprecedented Global Financial Crisis Headed? A Retrospective from Alf Field

Everyone must be wondering where this “unprecedented global financial crisis”, (the World Bank’s words), is heading. What follows, for what they are worth, are my cogitations on this crisis. Words: 1641

5. News Flash! OECD: Decisive Action Required Quickly to Avoid Massive Economic Disruption, a Credit Crunch and a Global Recession

Decisive policies must be urgently put in place to stop the euro area sovereign debt crisis from spreading and to put weakening global activity back on track. [If not we can expect to see a] massive escalation in economic disruption, an increase in the risk of a credit crunch [and] the global economy tipping into a recession. Words: 834

6. Canadian Government Claims “All’s Well” at Home but Calls Europe’s Debt Woes “Dire”

In a speech to the Canadian Club in Toronto this past week Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty urged European leaders to find a solution to their debt crisis as it has spread beyond the eurozone and into credit markets worldwide creating a “dire and pressing problem” that threatens the rest of the world with possible “social unrest and instability”. Words: 870

7. Canada’s “Misery Index” On The Rise – but Still Below the Misery in the U.S.

Canadians may wish to consider the underlying trends in inflation and unemployment before making major financial decisions. Recent unemployment data in Canada shows unemployment at 7.3% [vs. 9.0% in the U.S.] and inflation rising to an uncomfortable 3.2% [vs. 3.6% in the U.S. for a Misery Index of 10.5 vs. 13.6 in the U.S.]

There has been an alarming development for the obscure, yet instructive Baltic Dry Index…[which] tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials (iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer and even plastic granules)…It is down 48.4% in the last month…[and] down 54.4% in the last three months. [Let me explain why and how to invest accordingly.]

As you can see in the chart above, the Index is down 48.4% in the last month and it’s down 54.4% in the last three months. The culprit? Why, Europe, of course. You’ll recall that European sovereign debt fears spiked (again) last October – and that’s precisely when the Baltic Dry Index also began its descent. Coincidence? I think not.

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The obvious takeaway from today’s chart? Steer clear of companies that sell cyclical products exclusively in European markets and…avoid U.S. stocks with heavy European exposure. A recession is afoot in Europe, if not already underway.

* http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/01/20/most-alarming-chart-all-week-2/

Why spend time surfing the internet looking for informative and well-written articles on the health of the economies of the U.S., Canada and Europe; the development and implications of the world’s financial crisis and the various investment opportunities that present themselves related to commodities (gold and silver in particular) and the stock market when we do it for you. We assess hundreds of articles every day, identify the best and then post edited excerpts of them.

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Related Article:

 The Baltic Dry Index: Why You Should Use It and How to Do So

The Baltic Dry Index is, in my opinion, the best leading economic indicator to follow when the media is telling us the economy is looking great one week and then predicting a double dip recession the next. Let me explain. Words: 933

Related Articles:

1. 2012: More Money-printing Leading to Accelerating Inflation, Rising Interest Rates & Then U.S. Debt Crisis! Got Gold?

Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660

2. Alf Field’s 7 “D’s” of the Developing Disaster Revisited

When the supply of something is increased sharply relative to demand, the value of that commodity will decline. If the supply continues to increase rapidly and indefinitely, then that item will become worth less and less, with the potential to finally become nearly worthless. This is the Developing Disaster facing the US Dollar and the world. This is the factor that could become the single most important criterion in investment allocation decisions and possibly even for individual financial survival…[Let me explain this further by reviewing the 7 major problems facing the U.S. (and thus the world) and how they all will lead to problem #7 - devolution.] Words: 1520

3. Why Hyperinflation is Not Likely – Let Alone Imminent

The National Inflation Association (NIA) has just posted an article* which makes a number of interesting arguments for the advent of hyperinflation and, while I agree with the conclusion that we could potentially face such an event, I see it as just one of a few possible outcomes. Let me comment on the specific points in the NIA article. Words: 1666

4. Continuing High Unemployment = More Money Printing = Higher Gold & Silver Prices

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate set by Congress of maximum employment and stable prices. During Chairman Bernanke’s most recent press conference he indicated that the Federal Reserve has done a better job of maintaining price stability while falling short of fostering maximum employment. [As such,] we believe the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the monetary base and weaken the dollar as long as unemployment remains elevated. While the economy (measured by real GDP) and the unemployment rate have not benefited from a substantial increase in the monetary base, the price of gold and silver have benefited from money printing. We believe this statement is quite important for monetary policy and for investors. [Let us explain further.] Words: 388

5. Where Is This Unprecedented Global Financial Crisis Headed? A Retrospective from Alf Field

 

Everyone must be wondering where this “unprecedented global financial crisis”, (the World Bank’s words), is heading. What follows, for what they are worth, are my cogitations on this crisis. Words: 1641

 

6. Egon von Greyerz Interview on Future QE, Hyperinflation and the Price of Gold

 

 

A final or total catastrophe of the currency system will occur as a result of unlimited money printing that will lead to hyperinflation. Stock markets will benefit temporarily from this QE [but we expect that the] markets will fall 90% against gold in the next few years. The correction in the precious metals [will] likely [soon] be over and we should see the metals going to new highs in 2012. Words: 450

 

7. Why Negative Real Interest Rates + Stimulative Money Supply = $10,000/ozt. Gold

 

 

 

 

Question: What do you get when you mix negative real interest rates with stimulative money supply efforts by global central banks? Answer: An exceptionally potent formula for higher gold prices that could send gold to the unimaginable level of $10,000 an ounce. [Let me explain further.] Words: 1049