Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below further reformatted and edited [..] excerpts from Larry Edelson’s (www.uncommonwisdom.com) original article* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Edelson goes on to say:

Major Forces That Will Drive Precious and Base Metals Higher
First, let’s review the major forces that are poised to drive gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, tin and more — higher and higher and why you should make metals investments a key part of your investment portfolio.

Force #1: Asia
There’s no question that Asia’s rise in the world is unprecedented and it’s being led by China’s economy which has grown at an average rate of about 10% for the last eight years. Moreover, not only is it just high growth in Asia, it’s growth that’s starting from a level that saw 1.4 billion people in China — and another 1.6 billion people in the rest of Asia — emerge out of absolute poverty and now that China and Asia are modernizing, the standard of living of 3 billion people — nearly half the world’s population — is soaring.

Consider, for instance, car ownership in China. Right now, even after almost two decades of explosive economic growth, car ownership in China is still only about 40 vehicles per 1,000 people, compared to 900 per every 1,000 in the U.S. If that stat just rises to 100 cars per every 1,000 people in China — which is certainly not a stretch of the imagination — the demand for cars will overwhelm the markets for steel, aluminum, platinum, palladium, rubber, iron – you name it. That’s just autos and that pales in comparison to what’s happening to the demand for copper and other metals for housing, urban construction, infrastructure projects, and more in Asia and that is why China, in particular, has been on a rampage to secure natural resources, especially metals, all over the world.

The pace of China’s acquisitions of natural resource companies is exploding higher! Just look at the history. In 2002, China made only 1 deal in natural resource acquisitions; 2 deals in 2003; 3 deals in 2004; 11 deals in 2005; 25 deals in 2006; 33 deals in 2007; 53 deals in 2008; and more than 166 deals in 2009, mostly in natural resources! Asia and China’s demand alone would be enough to send metals prices higher but one of my major points today is that it’s not just Asian demand this time around. Demand for metals, indeed all natural resources — what I call tangible assets, real wealth — is being multiplied many times over by …

Force #2: U.S. Debt Implosion
Not only is Asian demand soaring but it’s happening at a time when the world is awash in debt and fiat currency and that is particularly true of the U.S., unfortunately. The U.S. is now the most indebted nation on the planet, and those debts — $136 trillion — are having immutable consequences on today’s economy and nearly all asset prices. Most of all, it’s changing the way they view the dollar! Hardly surprising, when you consider that even if the government could somehow pay off that debt at the rate of $100 million per day, every day starting right now, it would take more than 3,450 years to do so. As such, savvy domestic U.S. and international investors are now realizing that America’s massive debts are unpayable!

Force #3: The Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar
As a result of #2 above, the favorite debt solution of central bankers and politicians will be to pay off government debts with ever cheaper currency.

Step-by-step, international investors and international organizations are aggressively pushing to replace the dollar with a new reserve currency [which explains] why — despite recent disasters with other currencies like the British pound or the euro — the dollar is still down 32% since its high back in 2001. Moreover, it’s also why the dollar’s role as a reserve currency is being challenged all over the world, and why I believe we are now facing a final day of reckoning for the dollar.

A plunging dollar – a fiat paper currency losing purchasing power — is presenting investors with a whole different ball game. It means that if your capital is denominated exclusively in U.S. dollars and it does NOT include a strategy for protection against the falling dollar … you may be actually LOSING money even without knowing it as your money gradually buys less and less. Therefore, to truly preserve your capital and its purchasing power, you may decide you need to go on the offensive with a strategy that includes strategic contra-dollar investments such as precious and base metals that protect your wealth and allow you to grow it as well just like other savvy investors are doing with tangible assets and resources that not only provide the world with the basic necessities of life, but actually rise in value as the dollars falls.

These powerful forces — Asian demand, the financial crisis, and the falling dollar — give you a triple tailwind to invest in precious and base metals — and to propel those investments higher to protect and grow your wealth.

Most Metals Remain Cheap on an Inflation-adjusted Basis
Most believe that the prices of the precious and base metals are already high, or, that they’ve seen their highs just before the financial crisis hit and that they offer very little upside profit potential – but nothing could be further from the truth! The FACT of the matter is that the prices of most metals remain cheap on an inflation-adjusted basis — and have loads of catching up to do on the UPSIDE! For instance, consider:

a) aluminum
Its peak inflation-adjusted price was near $10,000 per metric tonne back in 1933 and its current price is about $2,000 per tonne. In other words, aluminum is selling for less than about one-fifth of its prior peak value — and could rise more than 400% in price in the months and years ahead.
b) tin
Its all-time peak in 1978 on an inflation-adjusted price was near $60,000 per metric tonne and today it sells for about $19,000 per tonne – or less than one-third its peak value.
c) copper
The price of copper, perhaps one of the most important base metals of all sold at an all-time peak in 1973-4 on an inflation-adjusted price of more than $17,000 per metric tonne and yet sells for only $6,700 per tonne today, i.e., about 40% of its prior peak value, and can more than double in price in the years ahead, from roughly $3 a pound today to over $6 a pound!
d) platinum
Its inflation-adjusted high: Nearly $3,000 an ounce in 1979. Its price today: Just a tad over $1,500 an ounce. In other words, platinum prices are set to DOUBLE.
e) palladium
Its inflation-adjusted high was more than $2,000 an ounce back in 1917 but is now trading for just $435 an ounce, showing it has the potential to gain more than 400%.
f) silver
Silver would have to rise almost ten-fold to reach its 1980 high in inflation-adjusted terms!
g) gold
g is for gold. Adjusted for inflation today’s price of around $1,200 gold the precious yellow metal is actually selling at just a tad more than HALF its all-time high. Its previous 1980 peak — in today’s dollars — is $2,271 per ounce. In other words, gold prices could EASILY double again in just the next couple of years. Moreover, at $1,200 an ounce, I believe gold investors are banking on the dollar’s purchasing power remaining stable which it is not going to do…
- not with the financial crisis still roaring
- not with governments around the world contemplating spending even more money to try and stimulate their economies
- not with the Federal Reserve continuing to print paper dollars like there’s no tomorrow
- not with other central banks around the world … in China, India, Russia and more — actually buying up gold reserves to protect themselves from the dollar’s inevitable decline!

Three Longer-term Price Scenarios For Gold

I. Orderly decline in the dollar = $2,300/ounce
I believe that, no matter what, gold is going to hit its inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 an ounce — at a minimum but that assumes an orderly decline in the dollar, and an orderly process of phasing in of an eventual new world reserve currency of some kind.

II. More dramatic decline in the dollar = $3,000/ounce
In this scenario, where the world’s currency markets continue to show the kind of volatility that’s recently occurred with rising global uncertainty regarding the outcome, gold could eventually reach $3,000 an ounce.

III. Collapse in the dollar = $5,000/ounce
In scenario three, where the dollar falls completely out of bed and the markets take over, I wouldn’t be shocked to see $5,000 an ounce for gold.

Bottom Line
Gold is showing you that soaring economic growth in Asia coupled with the financial crisis, which is going to inevitably pound the dollar lower, devaluing its purchasing power step-by-step, are converging to give you an investment sector that’s perfectly positioned to not only help you protect the value of your money in the months and years ahead, but also give you multiple opportunities for profits.

3 General Steps Investors Should Take

Step 1:
For ultimate protection, and for future profit potential, I believe that everyone should have up to 25% of their liquid investment funds in gold and gold-related opportunities. Naturally, each investor needs to take a look at his or her individual investment needs but whether you invest 10% or 25% in gold, I recommend your allocation be further subdivided into four equal units.

Using a 25% allocation, here’s how it would break down:
a) 6.25% in bullion, in ingots or bullion coins such as the American Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf. Given the storage hassles and costs, there’s no need to put more than that in bullion

b) 6.25% into the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, symbol GLD, and

c) 6.25% divided equally amongst my three favorite gold mutual funds as follows:
i) Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX)
ii) U.S. Global Investors World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX)
iii) U.S. Global Investors Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX)

d) 6.25% divided equally into the following top-rated gold mining companies that own the majority of the gold reserves in the world today:
i) Goldcorp Inc., (GG)
ii) Barrick Gold Corp., (ABX)
iii) Kinross Gold Corp, (KGC)
iv) Gammon Gold, (GRS)

Step 2:
Diversify beyond gold to the other metals that are benefitting from this environment — rising Asian demand coupled with a long-term bear market in the dollar. Consider an assortment of my favorite Exchange Traded Funds such as:
a) ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL)
b) ETFS Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT)
c) ETFS Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR)
d) PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB)

Step 3:
Also consider the intelligent purchase of short- and long-term call options on metals companies, bearing in mind that options are not for everyone, and certainly not for ALL of your money as they are volatile, speculative investments. However, the purchase of options has two unique advantages in that you can never lose a penny more than you invest and you get virtually unlimited profit potential!

Step 4:
Consider active guidance in the area of metals investing, and all natural resources.

*http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/your-single-best-defense-9722?FIELD9=2 (Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. To view archives or subscribe, visit our web site.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
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See larger image Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis: Finding Investment Opportunities by Tracking Global Market Trends (Hardcover) By (author) Bud Conrad List Price: $27.95 USD New From: $15.61 In Stock Used from: $15.50 In Stock

Recent research by H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc. suggests that there no “better measure of currency depreciation or a better predictor of inflation and its manifestations” than gold and, as such, “equity investors [can best] protect their portfolios by diverting part of their holdings to gold.”

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below reformatted and edited [..] excerpts from R. David Ranson’s original report* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Ranson goes on to say:

Asset markets reflect inflation long before economic statistics reveal it
Over long periods of time [i.e. 50 years] the relationship of the price of gold with the cost of living is almost exactly one for one [but] the average time lag between price movements in gold and U.S. consumer-price changes is five or six years long. [As such, the] current practice that defines inflation de facto as the change in the official cost of living index can be highly misleading… For investors, inflation is ultimately nothing more or less than the depreciation of their currency and it is vital to recognize it as soon as it is reflected in asset market prices [and] for that purpose, the consumer price index is [of] no use at all.

U.S. equities underperform when the dollar depreciates relative to gold
Returns from investments such as commodities and real estate are positively correlated with gold-price movements most of the time, and so these are inflation hedges. Bonds and most stocks, however, are vulnerable to inflation because their returns tend to be negatively correlated with gold…To protect against inflation, therefore, a U.S. fixed-income or equity investor must hold inflation-hedge assets whose price movements anticipate changes in conventional measures of inflation many years before they become visible. Gold is such an asset. TIPS [Treasury Inflation Protected Securities in the U.S. and Real Return Bonds in Canada] are not.

For purposes of designing portfolios that are insured against inflation, gold again plays a double role.
1. The correlation of its price movements with those of any investment portfolio serves as an objective measure of the vulnerability of the portfolio to the dollar’s depreciation.
2. Gold is also an asset that can be included in a portfolio of stocks or bonds to reduce its vulnerability.

Sensitivity of an equity portfolio to the gold price
[First, let's look at the correlation factor.] The correlation between the total return from an equity portfolio and changes in the price of gold is not simultaneous [i.e. approx. 5-6 years says Wainwright].

[Now, let's review the vulnerability factor.] The average cumulative return from an investment in the S&P 500 index following a major rise in the price of gold as compared with that following a major decline [has] a time lag stretching out for three to five years [and, as such,]…the admixture of gold in an equities portfolio will reduce its volatility and protect it from inflation. The first and obvious channel is the contemporaneous inverse correlation between equity returns and the gold price change. As a result of this correlation, annual returns from the mix have a lower standard deviation than those of annual returns from either asset alone. The delayed inverse correlation is even stronger. The presence of gold protects the portfolio against damage to the portfolio that will not be felt in the form of stock market responses for several years into the future. This correlation, which is also inverse, reduces even further the volatility of the mix if we measure returns over multi-year time frames.

[To put the above in other words, gold] tends to produce particularly high returns following years in which its own price has already risen and credit spreads in the corporate bond market have widened [and] under symmetrically opposite conditions it produces very low returns. [Source: See 'Research Summary: Systemic asset allocation strategies from market signals of growth and inflation,' Tactical Aset Selector, Wainwright Economics, May 31,2010, especially Figure Three.]

Measuring the riskiness of a mix of equities and gold
Naturally, the inclusion of gold in any portfolio tends to reduce the standard deviation of returns from the portfolio…the annual return from gold has a substantially higher volatility than the annual return from stocks. [As their analyses revealed:]
1. The point of minimum volatility in a mix of the two is reached in a portfolio containing 31 percent gold and 69 percent S&P 500…[while]
2. the mix that maximizes the ratio of return to risk is slightly different: 32 percent gold, 68 percent stocks…

[It must be emphasized, however, that] we are chiefly concerned here with still another distinct definition of risk: the sensitivity of the portfolio to inflation [and such an analysis suggests a different gold-to-stock split on that basis]…We know [as mentioned previously,] that the damage to a stocks portfolio from a rise in the price of gold lasts about five years… [and have determined that:]

1. the sensitivity of portfolio returns to the cumulative change in the price of gold is almost exactly zero at a mix of 15 percent gold and 85 percent stocks [and that,] according to our calculations, such a portfolio is almost exactly immune to the damage that inflation (as expressed by the gold price) does to stocks.

Investment conclusion
Including gold bullion in an equities portfolio has the effect of lowering the volatility of portfolio return and raising the return-risk ratio, just as the inclusion of any other asset would. Gold, however, has a special risk-reducing property that other assets lack. It is not only a hedge against inflation, but a market leading indicator of inflation and, better still, a direct measure of the damage done by inflation to an equities portfolio. The negative impact on stock returns from a rise in the price of gold lasts for at least five years.

We calculate that a US equities portfolio in which 15 percent of the assets are diverted to gold bullion would be effectively immune from damage due to a rising gold price. That is equivalent, we believe, to immunity from inflation.

*http://bmgbullion.com/doc_bin/Gold%20immunizing%20equities%20-%20June%202010.pdf

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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See larger image The Inflation Crisis and How to Resolve It (Hardcover) By (author) Henry Hazlitt List Price: $14.00 USD New From: $7.00 In Stock Used from: $6.21 In Stock

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below further reformatted and edited [..] excerpts from Michael Trudeau’s (http://bartergoldandsilver.wordpress.com/) original article* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Trudeau goes on to say:

The freedom to own and retain gold bullion in the U.S. is a temporary freedom, a revocable privilege, and not a basic right. This has been demonstrated on four occasions in American history. Gold was confiscated under F.D.R. in 1933, under President Lincoln in the Civil War and twice prior to the signing of the Constitution. U.S. citizens were only given back this temporary freedom in 1975.

The Possible Ramifications of a MAJOR Crisis
Few would argue that we are rapidly headed for, if not already in, a national crisis. Each month the balance of trade deficit gets worse, while the national debt continues to grow. The FDIC is self-admittedly broke and today could not even repay 10-cents on the dollar, plus we are told that over 1000 banks are operating at dangerous levels — less liquid than many banks which closed right after the crash of 1929. The number of banks closings is already well ahead of 1929 levels and rising.

Our lawmakers have been busy spending billions and now trillions of dollars a year, which we do not have. They call it “deficit spending.” You might call it “robbery”. At this pace it is obvious we are in a full blown, old fashioned national crisis, the kind where hard working people have lost a large portion of their wealth over the past few years and are about to lose the rest of their entire life savings if action is not taken now.

Might Uncle Sam Want You (i.e. Your Gold Bullion)!
When [the proverbial _ _ _ _ ] hits [the fan], Uncle Sam will not worry about you or your life savings. Uncle Sam will be in a panic to get his books balanced to continue foreign trade and more borrowing if anyone will lend to us anymore. How could the books get balanced in a hurry? Fairly simply: by collecting all available valuable assets and having them reappraised upward.

Need an example? How about 1933 — under F.D.R. gold was confiscated and accumulated at $20.57 an ounce. Once collected, the U.S. government graduated the price of gold up to $35, an increase of approximately 70%.

They say those who are not students of history are doomed to repeat it. Don’t get caught with your Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, Pandas, Pesos or other bullion coins when the hammer falls.

What Gold Should You Own?
The reason you own gold [or are seriously thinking of doing so] is to be safe from any emergency or crisis, especially a national crisis, so what should you do? May I suggest the following strategy: convert a portion of your assets (a minimum of 25% to 30%) into [one or all of] the following:
a) pre-1933 or commemorative U.S. gold coins which have historically withstood the scrutiny of both the U.S. Supreme Court and the Treasury Department scrutiny
b) British Sovereigns
c) Francs
d) silver dollars (but not junk silver which is considered bullion).

The above are classed as collectibles and, as such, you will enjoy several privacy and tax advantages not possible with bullion. There is also a proven wealth building potential due to increasing demand and diminishing supply. Bullion in any form is clearly subject to confiscation. Confiscation is more than just a possibility – it is a reality as a “bust” cycle nears. Do not buy more bullion than you can afford to lose.

When you buy the above mentioned coins to protect your assets, you are simply converting a percentage of your paper assets into precious metals, which will rise in value as the paper money decreases in value, therefore ensuring that your present wealth or assets are protected and you may have a gain on top of that. At some point, when things stabilize, you just convert your precious metals back to paper.

In these economic times the only people who will be able to protect what they have left are the people holding a percentage of their assets in the right kind of precious metals.

*http://bartergoldandsilver.wordpress.com/

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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See larger image Collecting and Investing Strategies for United States Gold Coins (Paperback) By (author) Jeff Ambio List Price: $34.95 USD New From: $23.05 In Stock Used from: $21.99 In Stock

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Monty Agarwal (www.moneyandmarkets.com) goes on to povide a basic primer on hedge funds to help you decide if these unique investments are possibly right for you:

What Are Hedge Funds?
The first hedge fund came out in 1949 as a strategy to neutralize the effect of overall market movements on a portfolio. The strategy was simply to buy stocks that were expected to rise and selling short stocks expected to fall. The concept was to add BALANCE — to produce returns that were not market-dependent and tended to hedge a portfolio’s market exposure. Nowadays, that has changed in a very fundamental way: besides protecting a portfolio from downside risk, hedge funds often go for maximum return by deploying large amounts of leverage and investing in several asset classes among global markets.

Who Invests in Hedge Funds?
Hedge funds are private partnerships that are open to a limited number of investors, with qualification criteria determined by the SEC. To get into one, you’ll need to prove you have a net worth greater than $1 million and meet a minimum income requirement. The reason for these stringent requirements is simple: The SEC feels that hedge funds are riskier and less transparent than mutual funds and most other investments. Beyond high-net-worth individuals, institutional investors are also a dominant force behind the rising popularity of hedge funds. Two such groups are:

1. Pension Funds
Unfortunately, U.S. corporate and government pension funds rarely have enough money in their kitty to cover all their expected future liabilities to their members. In fact, assuming the most likely future scenario, the expected shortfall is almost $1.5 trillion! This is a major reason why pension fund managers have reached beyond traditional investment vehicles to seek outsized returns and many fund managers think hedge funds are the best places to find them.

Estimates vary but up to 20 percent of European and American pension funds — plus 40 percent of Japanese pensions — are believed to invest in hedge funds.

2. Endowments
Endowments include colleges and universities as well as charitable institutions. In the latest National Association of College and University Business Officers Endowment Study, hedge funds made up 18 percent of college and university portfolios on a dollar-weighted basis. This puts hedge funds second only to stocks (with a 48 percent allocation).

Additionally, the data reveals another not-so-surprising trend – the larger the institution, the higher the percentage of assets invested in hedge funds.

Four Key Benefits Of Investing in Hedge Funds

Benefit #1 — True diversification across multiple asset classes
Hedge funds operate in any and every asset class imaginable, from the traditional equities and bonds to currencies, commodities, real estate, and even fine art.

Benefit #2 —True global diversification
While most of the strategies used by hedge fund managers are concentrated in developed countries, there are funds focused on the emerging markets of Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. I’m also seeing hedge funds foray into frontier markets — extremely underdeveloped markets of Africa and the Middle East.

Benefit #3 — Non-correlation with traditional investments
The instruments used by hedge funds are diverse. Hedge funds can utilize futures, swaps, and options. This allows them to produce returns that vary wildly from those of broad markets and more common investments.

Benefit #4 — The concept of absolute returns
Hedge funds exist to make money in any market environment. They’re not content to help you “lose less money than the averages.” They make their fees only if they give you a positive absolute return. This is a very powerful incentive. It’s backed by years of solid performance. It’s the main reason the hedge fund industry has been attracting capital from all kinds of investors.

The annualized returns from 1997 to 2008 of 5 of the 6 hedge fund strategies commonly used outperformed the S&P 500 index by more than 2 to 1 during that period of time.

Clearly, if you are qualified for a hedge fund — or a fund of hedge funds — and you can gain the knowledge to help you avoid the pitfalls, this is not a track record you can afford to ignore.

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/hedge-fund-investing-37513 (Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
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See larger image The Future of Hedge Fund Investing: A Regulatory and Structural Solution for a Fallen Industry (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover) By (author) Monty Agarwal List Price: $65.00 USD New From: $35.40 In Stock Used from: $25.99 In Stock

Below are further edited excerpts (by Lorimer Wilson) from Harry S. Dent Jr.’s (www.hsdent.com) book ‘The Great Depression Ahead’ in which he advises, in detail, how we should deploy our assets in the 2010s based on his demographic approach to forecasting.

1. Late 2009 to mid-2010:
a) Sell commodities and commodities and energy stocks.
b) Allocate 100% to T-bills or money markets and safe currencies.

2. Mid- to late 2010:
Start to allocate to 30-year Treasury bonds only after their yield begins to spike.

3. Late 2010 to mid- 2011:
a) Allocate to 20-year corporate bonds when yields go to extremes.
b) More conservative investors should focus on AAA corporate, more aggressive investors toward BAA.
c) All investors must recognize, however, that even high-quality bonds will be in question as to their viability, given that the downturn between mid-2009 and 2012 is anticipated to be more extreme than anything we have seen since the early 1930s, mid-1970s, or early 1980s.

4. Mid-2011 to mid-2012:
Allocate to long-term municipal bonds when yields seem to be peaking (high-tax-bracket investors).

5. Mid- to late 2012:
a) Aggressive/growth investors: allocate majority into Asian stocks and lesser into U.S. multinational, technology and health care, with minor allocation in long-term corporate, Treasury, or municipal bonds.
b) Conservative investors: focus largely on 10- to 30-year Treasuries and 20-year corporate AAA bonds, with minor allocations in multinational, health-care, and Japanese stocks.

6. Late 2011 to early 2015:
Look for selected opportunities in real estate (small condos and starter homes early on; vacation and retirement homes later; trade-up homes by 2015).

7. Mid- to late 2014:
Aggressive/growth investors: allocate more to leading stock sectors such as China, India, health care, multinational, technology, and financials on a likely short-term correction between late 2013 and late 2014.

8. Early to mid-2017:
a) Sell stocks in all sectors.
b) Convert largely back into long-term bonds and, to a lesser degree, into T-bills or money markets.

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
- Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.
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See larger image The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History (Hardcover) By (author) Harry S. Dent List Price: $27.00 USD New From: $6.64 In Stock Used from: $2.83 In Stock

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Lorimer Wilson goes on to say:

Some Predictions Do Come True
Such warnings and predictions were often derided as just negative nonsense coming from alarmists, ‘party poopers’, ‘Chicken Littles’, ‘perma-bears’, ‘doom and gloomers’ and the like rather than from the insightful economists and financial and market analysts who made them. To their collective credit they were all substantially correct in their prognoses of what we could expect to happen as exemplified by what actually did in the latter half of 2008 and early 2009. It cost many investors 50+% of their stock market investments, 25 – 35% of the value of their home or even the loss of their house itself, more than 10% their jobs and many more meaning full employment. Perhaps we should have paid more attention to what they said and as I compiled in the 6-part series back in 2006 regarding the “Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World’s Financial Experts” followed up by a 4-part series entitled “Warning! Fiscal Hurricane Approaching! Is Your Portfolio Secure?”

Once again warnings and predictions are being put forth about the next crisis to befall us and this time around it behooves us to pay more attention and make sure this time that we are better positioned to survive and prosper whatever comes our way. Below is a major market forecast and investment advice based on demographic analyses of Harry S. Dent Jr. who has ‘been there, and done that’ successfully in the past and is once again forecasting what his research indicates is in store for us over the next decade. It should be ignored at our peril.

Dent, the author of ‘The Roaring 2000s’, ‘The Roaring 2000’s Investor’, ‘The Next Great Bubble Boom’ and his latest book entitled ‘The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History’ states that “The most important cycle change for your wealth, health, life, family, business, and investments is just ahead during the first and last depression you are likely to experience in your lifetime.”

Dent makes it clear that his predictions, while almost always contrary to most economists and expectations, have almost always proved to be correct because his predictions are based on the same sound and quantifiable logic insurance actuaries use with a high degree of accuracy to predict, decades in advance, when people will die. Dent says he applies the same science to predicting what things will happen in between birth and death – such as when people enter the workforce, get married, spend, are most productive, borrow, invest, retire, buy houses and so on. He believes that such a study of demographics and other key cycles allows him to determine the future based on the facts of the present and of demonstrated behavior so he can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python.

With that understanding of the basis for his forecasting Dent provides 13 (befittingly) dire predictions of what we can expect to encounter in this decade in edited and reformatted excerpts from “The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History”, namely:

1. Dow will Rebound to 10,000 – 13,200 by end of 2009
A massive stimulus plan will bolster the economy somewhat into 2009 for a likely rebound in the Dow to between 10,000 and 13,200 [Editor's note: 10,500 actual at end of 2009].

2. Oil to Retest $147 High and Possibly Reach as High as $215+ by mid-2010 Before Declining to $40 – $60 by 2015
Oil prices will likely rise to a commodity bubble peak of between $180 and $215, possibly even more, and if not that high then, at an absolute minimum, retest its 2008 high of $147, between late 2009 and mid-2010. We should then see a major crash in oil prices, beginning in 2010, back into the $40 – $60 range, and possibly even lower, between 2012 and 2015 which will continue for years.

3. Commodities will Peak by mid-2010
Commodities in general, including gold and other precious metals despite their crisis hedge qualities in the past, will likely peak by mid-2010. It will probably be 2020 or 2023 before we see the next sustained commodity boom and bubble which should last into 2039 – 2040.

4. Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
The next accelerated stock crash, led by emerging markets, Asian stocks, financial stocks and tech stocks – and finally by oil and commodity stocks – will likely occur between late 2009 and late 2010, when most of the damage will occur, and continue off and on into mid- to late 2012. The Dow will fall at least to 4,500 and more likely as low as 3,800 by mid-2012, the 1994 low where the stock market bubble first began.

5. Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.

6. Market will Rally from 2012 until 2017
A substantial bear market rally will likely occur between around mid-2012 and early to mid-2017 and then a less severe downturn will occur from around mid-2017 into early 2020 or as late as early 2023.

7. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011.
[Editor’s Note: According to a recent research paper on “Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions” by David Barro, a professor of economics at Harvard, there is a 20% probability of a stock-market crash if the economic decline is between 10% and 25% and a 28% possibility if it is associated with a major war of the magnitude of World War 1 and World War ll. Conversely, if a minor depression occurs first we can expect a market crash to follow 69% of the time and 83% of the time if the depression is major i.e. the economic decline is in excess of 25%. As such, should our current recession escalate and culminate in a minor or major depression by 2011 it may well follow that we will indeed experience another major stock market crash in 2012 as Dent forecasts.]

8. Unemployment Could Increase to 12 – 15% by 2011
Unemployment could reach 12-15%, or possibly higher at the peak of the depression.

9. Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
A rise in inflationary trends from mid-2009 into late 2009 or early mid-2010 will then reverse to an ominous deflationary trend in prices, as the economy slows and all assets deflate, as they have done after every bubble boom in history. It is not that the government will not try to inflate its way out of this next crisis by cutting interest rates and undertaking public works projects, etc. but that the massive write-off of real estate and business loans will outweigh those efforts and contract the money supply.

10. Interest Rates will Increase
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates aggressively from mid-2009 forwards [Editor's note: this did not happen and does not look like it will happen until well into 2010 at the earliest] due to rising inflationary pressures which will contribute to the on-going crash of the stock market down to the 3,800 to 4,000 level.

11. U.S. Dollar will Decline
The U.S. dollar, which declined in early 2008 in the face of a strong stock market and which strengthened considerably during the Crash of ’08, is likely to decline again into 2010 – 2012 as the stock market declines considerably further. The dollar will then strengthen again before we see the second milder stage of the depression between mid-2017 and early 2020 or 2023.

12. Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from October 2008 Levels
A more severe deflation cycle in housing will begin between late 2009 and mid-2010 and will likely last until somewhere between mid-2011 and 2013, and possibly as late as early 2015 in larger homes. During that period the average American house price will fall at least a further 40% and as much as a further 60% from today’s (fall of 2008) market prices.

Housing has remained essentially flat when adjusted for inflation over the last century except during the extreme bubble after 2000 and the deflation cycle of the early 1900s and 1930s. As such, the current grossly overvalued house prices of today, coupled with expected rising unemployment deflationary trends and the continued real estate slowdown due to the aging of the massive baby-boom generation, will likely make such a decline in house prices a reality.

13. Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012
Dent concludes by saying “If you thought 2008 was scary, 2010 to 2012 will be the greatest economic and banking crisis since the 1930s. You must be prepared in advance to survive this most difficult season. Do not accept the proposition that you cannot, or should not, take steps to guard against losses. As an investor, it is your money, your future, and your responsibility to protect yourself in the best way possible and there will be the greatest reward for those who do prepare during this once-in-a-lifetime ‘great sale’ in financial assets.”

How Best to Invest and Prosper during the Tumultuous Times Ahead (according to Dent)
1. Early to mid 2009:
a) Sell stocks [Editor's note: markets actually went up + 60% from low of March 6, 2009], except commodity and energy sectors.
b) Allocate between commodities and T-bills or money markets and /or safe currencies.

2. Late 2009 to mid-2010:
a) Sell commodities and commodities and energy stocks.
b) Allocate 100% to T-bills or money markets and safe currencies.

3. Mid- to late 2010:
Start to allocate to 30-year Treasury bonds only after their yield begins to spike.

4. Late 2010 to mid- 2011:
a) Allocate to 20-year corporate bonds when yields go to extremes.
b) More conservative investors should focus on AAA corporate, more aggressive investors toward BAA.
c) All investors must recognize, however, that even high-quality bonds will be in question as to their viability, given that the downturn between mid-2009 and 2012 is anticipated to be more extreme than anything we have seen since the early 1930s, mid-1970s, or early 1980s.

5. Mid-2011 to mid-2012:
Allocate to long-term municipal bonds when yields seem to be peaking (high-tax-bracket investors).

6. Mid- to late 2012:
a) Aggressive/growth investors: allocate majority into Asian stocks and lesser into U.S. multinational, technology and health care, with minor allocation in long-term corporate, Treasury, or municipal bonds.
b) Conservative investors: focus largely on 10- to 30-year Treasuries and 20-year corporate AAA bonds, with minor allocations in multinational, health-care, and Japanese stocks.

7. Late 2011 to early 2015:
Look for selected opportunities in real estate (small condos and starter homes early on; vacation and retirement homes later; trade-up homes by 2015).

8. Mid- to late 2014:
Aggressive/growth investors: allocate more to leading stock sectors such as China, India, health care, multinational, technology, and financials on a likely short-term correction between late 2013 and late 2014.

9. Early to mid-2017:
a) Sell stocks in all sectors.
b) Convert largely back into long-term bonds and, to a lesser degree, into T-bills or money markets.

[Dent goes on to provide additional advice on which assets to invest in up to 2036 which I have excluded here as our interest and focus is much more short-term given our current economic, fiscal and investment environment.]

Before you dismiss Dent’s assessment of what the future holds for us consider this: ‘The Great Depression Ahead’ was written in the fall of 2008 yet Dent projected on page 56 that:
1. many banks would:
a) fail – that has and is happening;
b) have to merge with others – that has already happened;
c) have to be bailed out by the government – that has already happened;

2. the Fed would have to cut short-term interest rates to near zero – that has already happened;

3. the federal deficit would soar to in excess of a trillion dollars – that is already a reality and

4. the 30-year Treasury bond would eventually fall to something like 2% in yields and that is developing.

Dent has a knack for telling us what we would rather not hear but it behooves us to make the most of his insights for what they are worth. Dent encourages everyone to apply for his free periodic e-mail updates to his basic forecasts and investment strategies and to check out ‘Free Downloads’ at www.hsdent.com for further and more current information.

*http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/wilsonl031809.html

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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In further edited excerpts from the original article* John Reese (validea.com) goes on to say:

It may seem like jumping the gun, given that both Canada and the U.S. have been experiencing deflation in recent months but the threat is serious. For investors, that raises two key questions:

1. Does Inflation Mean Troubled Times for Stocks?
Many say high-inflation periods are indeed trouble for stocks. As inflation rises, governments will raise interest rates, the theory goes, and investors will flee stocks and head to Treasury bills.

The reality is much more complex. While history has shown that the stock-fleeing scenario can happen, it doesn’t always. In 1975, when U.S. inflation averaged 9.2 per cent, the S&P 500 surged about 30 per cent while 10-year U.S. Treasury bills averaged an 8-per-cent yield. In 1980, when inflation averaged 13.6 per cent – the highest annual reading of the past 60-plus years – the S&P gained almost 30 per cent, while 10-year T-bills yielded an average of 11.4 per cent throughout the year.

Over the longer term, some of history’s top strategists actually say that inflation is a big reason to buy stocks – not to avoid them. Foremost among them is Warren Buffett. His inflation research goes way back. In 1977 – just before the U.S. was about to enter into one of the worst inflationary climates in history – in a column for Fortune magazine he said, “stocks are probably still the best of all the poor alternatives in an era of inflation – at least they are if you buy in at appropriate prices.”

Why keep your long-term focus on stocks if inflation is coming? For starters, they have an overall advantage over fixed-income investments because of the equity risk premium – the notion that stocks return more than fixed income investments over the long haul because investors demand greater returns for taking on greater short-term volatility.

Just as importantly, when you factor in inflation, that advantage becomes even greater. When inflation hits, stocks can draw on increasing earnings streams as companies raise prices and increase profits to keep up with inflation. Most bonds and bills can’t do that and when inflation is factored in, the equity risk premium becomes crucial. Fixed-income investments, because their nominal yields are usually lower than nominal stock returns to begin with, have a much bigger percentage of returns eaten away by inflation.

In his book “Contrarian Investment Strategies” , David Dreman noted that from 1946 to 1996, compound returns after inflation for stocks were better than those of bonds 84 per cent of the time if your holding period was five years. Stocks also outperformed T-bills in 82 per cent of those five-year periods. Using 10-year periods, stocks beat bonds 94 per cent of the time and T-bills 86 per cent of the time. When you look at 20-year holding periods, stocks beat both bonds and T-bills 100 per cent of the time.

2. How Can You Position Your Portfolio to Deal With an Inflationary Climate?
If you knew, if and when, major inflation was going to set in and how long it would last, you might – and, I stress, might –be able to make some short-term profits by jumping back and forth between stocks and fixed-income investments but no one knows those factors in advance, which is why I’m sticking with stocks.

My Buffett-based approach targets stocks that have boosted earnings per share in at least nine of the past 10 years, have 10-year average returns on equity of at least 15 per cent and have positive free cash flows, all of which align with Mr. Buffett’s inflation-protection advice. My model is quite stringent, and currently gives 100 per cent scores to less than a dozen stocks in the market.

*http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/experts-podium/ask-buffett-if-inflation-comes-stocks-are-best-bet/article1279016/?service=mobile

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
- Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.
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See larger image Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies (Hardcover) By (author) Jeremy Siegel List Price: $34.95 USD New From: $18.99 In Stock Used from: $16.64 In Stock

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Hans Wagner (www.tradingonlinemarkets.com) goes on to say:

There are several types of portfolio investing risk. Knowing the risk is the first step to making better investing decisions.

Macro Risk Categories

1. Systematic risk, also known as market risk, is the risk associated with the overall market. An example is that the overall trend of the stock market dictates a substantial part of the total return. In this case, owning stocks from different sectors does not diversify away the systematic risk of the market.

You can mitigate systematic risks by hedging your positions with non-correlated assets or employ good stop management techniques to preserve your capital. While stops are not part of the Modern Portfolio Theory, they have their use and should be part of your overall strategy. Changes in interest rates, recessions, and major catastrophes are examples of systematic risk as they affect the entire market.

2. Unsystematic risk, also known as specific risk or diversifiable risk, is the risk inherent in each investment. Investors can offset specific risk with proper diversification. For example, if you place all your money in a biotechnology company that has just received news that the FDA will not approve a new drug, you have encountered unsystematic or specific risk. This news would cause the share price to fall precipitously. Had you owned shares of several biotechnology companies, or better yet companies in other industries, you would have reduced your risk.

Core Asset Characteristics
When examining a complete portfolio it is imperative to consider fully the important factors that comprise your investable core assets. Dr. David Swensen, the Nobel Price winner in economics, has identified three characteristics of core assets that should be part of your evaluation to help reduce systematic or market risk:

1. Use assets to hedge the market risk of other assets. For example, real estate is a good hedge against the ravages of inflation, while bonds offer protection from a financial crisis. By recognizing these inherent characteristics of your core assets, you can hedge some of the market risk inherent in an investing portfolio. There should be fundamentally based market returns from the asset class. If you are depending only on active management of the asset class, you are increasing the risk of losses by not being invested in the market.

2. Rely on liquid markets where there is a ready market to buy and sell your core asset. Assets that cannot be immediately priced and sold, are subject to sudden and deep losses. Liquid markets give you the opportunity to employ stop loss techniques should the market turn against you as in a recession.

3. Your stock portfolio is part of your total asset valuation that includes savings for emergencies, real estate, bonds, and possibly precious metals. By taking this broad perspective, you have a better chance to employ overall hedges that are non-correlated to address market risk.

Asset Correlation
In Modern Portfolio Theory, the most efficient method is to create an optimal mix of asset classes that generate the highest return to risk ratio. By owning assets that do not correlate with each other, you can reduce the risk in your portfolio. In a general sense, stocks and bonds tend to have a negative correlation. When stocks perform well, bonds do not and when bonds perform well, stocks do not.

Market sectors have various levels of correlation. Owning sectors that are not correlated highly help to reduce your risk. For example, stocks are closely correlated to their sector. In this case it’s better for the investor to own the sector rather than the individual. Owning the sector helps to achieve some diversification, reducing specific risk of stock ownership.

Primary Asset Classes
By owning asset classes that are not highly correlated, you can reduce your risk. The primary asset classes to consider are:
1. Common assets of bonds, equities, real estate and cash
2. Geographies including the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Latin America, rest of Asia, the Middle East.
3. Bond types such as Treasuries, corporate, short-term or long-term
4. Major currencies including the US Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro, the Japanese Yen

When you blend asset classes that have a low correlation to each other, you are lowering the risk in your portfolio. Many investors fail to incorporate this thinking when they build their portfolios. Using the R-Squared factor, a correlation of 1 indicates the asset classes are perfectly correlated. A correlation coefficient of zero indicates there is no correlation in the performance of the asset classes. For example, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 have a near perfect correlation of 0.97, whereas the average correlation among S&P sectors is 0.32.

Asset allocation is the most essential factor in building a high performing portfolio. Paying attention to the risk of each asset class allows you to create a portfolio that can beat the market in good times as well as bad.

*http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Articles/Trading_Discpline/Portfolio_Risk_Management.htm (To receive our free monthly newsletter on the stock market trends, please send an email to service@tradingonlinemarkets.com with your email address stating you wish to receive the Free Monthly Newsletter and you will be added to the list.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
- Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.
- Buy the book below from Amazon. It’s pertinent to this article and inexpensive too.

See larger image Asset Allocation For Dummies (Paperback) By (author) Dorianne Perrucci, Jerry A. Miccolis List Price: $24.99 USD New From: $5.71 In Stock Used from: $6.78 In Stock

Gold Bullion up 24%
While gold bullion was ‘only’ up 24%* (and silver up 49.3%*) it did nothing more than match the performance of the S&P 500 and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB indices at 23.5%* for both. Why all the hype regarding gold bullion over the past few months when most other commodities and their related stocks and long-term warrants did so much better?

HUI up 42%
A basket of large cap gold and silver stocks, as represented by the HUI, was up 42.2%* (the Gold Miners Index and its ETF proxy were up 36.4%*).

S&P/TSX up 52%
An investment in Canada’s heavily commodity based S&P/TSX a year ago would have generated a 52.3%*.

Commodity Companies Index (CCI) up 126%
Those investors who invested in a basket of stocks consisting of all 36 companies involved in commodities with long-term warrants, as included in my proprietary CCI consisting of
a) 29 companies involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver ( 22), uranium (1), cobalt (1), molybdenum (1), lead (1), coal (2) and iron ore (1)
b) 3 companies involved in buying secondary gold or silver production, i.e. royalty streamers
c) 2 companies involved in oil and gas production and exploration and
d) 2 merchant banks involved in financing commodity-related projects,
would have experienced an impressive gain of 125.8%* in 2009.

Commodity Company Warrants Index (CCWI) up 242%
The very, very few in the know who invested in a basket of the 47 warrants associated with the above commodity categories (6 companies offer two or three long-term warrant hence the larger number) that trade on the American or Canadian stock exchanges, as per my proprietary CCWI, were up an amazing 242.3%* in 2009. Yes, that is correct: 242.3%!!

For those many who are not familiar with warrants they give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the common shares of the company at a specific price within a specific time period after which, if not exercised, they expire worthless but which can be traded as required just as with the associated stock.

In previous articles I have gone on and on about the leverage advantage (i.e. enhanced returns) of warrants and here is a perfect case in point. The warrants in the CCWI generated twice the returns of their associated stock in the CCI with the same degree of risk. That’s the major advantage of warrants vis-a-vis their associated stocks.

Gold and Silver Companies Index (GSCI) up 85%
To be totally objective in this analysis, however, the average increase in the stock of the 22 companies with long term warrants that were exclusively involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver were up, according to my proprietary GSCI, somewhat less but still an impressive +84.5%* for the year.

Gold and Silver Warrants Index (GSWI) up 140%
It gets better! The long-term warrants of the 22 companies involved in the mining, developing or exploring of gold and/or silver appreciated, according to my proprietary GSWI, by 139.7%*.

Royalty Company Stock up 93%
Had you invested in the stock of the 3 companies, with long-term warrants, that buy the secondary gold and silver production from base metal miners at fixed prices you would have had a 92.6%* return in 2009.

Royalty Company Warrants up 213%
Best yet the warrants of these 3 companies were up 2.5 times that of their associated stock at 213.0%*. How’s that for enhanced returns!

Where Should You Invest in 2010?
As you will recall I recently wrote an article entitled “Gold:Silver Ratio Screams Buy all Things Silver!” whose conclusions, coupled with the conclusions in this article, strongly suggest that the buy of this decade will be the warrants of gold and silver mining stocks and, more particularly, the warrants of gold and silver royalty companies and specifically the warrants of silver royalty companies.

Conclusion
Don’t follow the herd when it comes to investing in gold (and silver) in 2010. Remember, gold was ‘only’ up 24%* in 2009 and the HUI ‘only’ 42%* yet the long-term warrants of the gold and silver mining companies were up 140%* and the long-term warrants of the gold and silver royalty companies were up 213%* on average. If the current bull market in commodities continues in 2010 it behoves you to seriously consider investing some money accordingly.

The next time you read an article hyping why you should buy gold consider the better returns available were you to invest in an alternative to gold bullion itself.

*All performance return calculations in this article have been on the basis of realizing profits in U.S. dollar terms. The original article was posted on Kitco as “Did your Gold Investments Return 24% in 2009 – or 179%?” with differences in some numbers because lower Canadian dollar performance numbers were mistakenly used in some cases.

The constituent companies in each of the GSCI/GSWI or CCI/CCWI can be found under the “Warrants/LEAPS/Options” section in articles entitled “GSCI/GSWI Constituent Companies” and “CCI/CCWI Constituent Companies”.

Editor’s Note:
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- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
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See larger image FORTY YEARS A SPECULATOR (Paperback) By (author) FRED CARACH List Price: $18.48 USD New From: $17.54 In Stock Used from: $16.99 In Stock