Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theory: Dow Set to Tumble to 8,000
August 28, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
U.S. stocks could sink by more than 20 percent if the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is breached, according to Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International Inc. Words: 524
Gold Will Go To $5,000 and the Dow To Above 27,000 by 2015
August 19, 2010 by Editor · 2 Comments
Warning! The forecasts you’re about to read are controversial, and many will say I have lost my mind. No problem. Many have said the same about me numerous times in the past but the forecasts I speak of today are based entirely upon my proprietary trading models that… have successfully guided me and the investors that have followed me through every twist and turn in the economy and markets… since I developed them in 1982. Words: 987
Dreaded “Hindenburg Omen” Indicator Suggests 77% Likelihood of Imminent Major Market Decline
August 19, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [conversely, 23% of the time no significant market downturn occurred] and usually took place within the next forty-days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. The Omen was activated on the New York Stock Exchange on August 11 so the probability is that we will see a steep market decline sometime in September. Words: 871
Napier: U.S. Stocks to Decline To 6 Times Earnings by 2015 – 2020!
July 3, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The next decade will surely be especially turbulent, because that’s when markets and politics will sort out what the inevitable train wreck in the US entitlement programs will look like. Words: 713
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Richard Russell: The Dow at 400 is Nolonger an Absurd Joke – Got Gold?
June 25, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think it’s a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent. Words: 524
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John Hussman: 80% Probability of +40% Market Plunge By End of 2010!
June 22, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold [before the end of] 2010. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we’ve observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle. Words: 503
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Siegel vs. Shiller + Bogle vs. Gross – On the Future of the S&P 500
April 12, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The market is currently slightly over-valued now which is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. Eventually, however, interest rates will get to levels of at least 4% (which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I am no prophet but if I had to guess, I would think future returns will be somewhere between Bogle’s and Shiller’s estimates, i.e. between 8% and 10%.
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Will We See the Dow at 4000 Once Again?
February 15, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Investors have a short memory, in 1995, the DJIA was around 4000. Today our economy, it could be argued, is actually weaker than it was back then. Words: 427
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Reuters 2010 Equity Forecast: Hang Seng UP 24%; S&P 500 UP 9%; Nikkei UP 7%
January 21, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
An explosive rally in world stock markets from multi-year lows in March has lost some momentum but most major indexes will rise further by end-2010, according to a Reuters poll of more than 200 strategists. Words: 391
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RBC: Dow to Reach 14,000 in 2010 Before Correcting
January 20, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
We think that the DJIA will need to get back to near the former highs around 14,000 (i.e. +6.5% from Y/E ’09) sometime in late summer or early fall before investors become overly-bullish and the risk of another major pullback (-7.0% to 12,000 by Y/E ’10) increases once again. Words: 265
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