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The Web is crawling with technical analysis (TA)…[and,] given its popularity, [begs the questions as to whether or not there] really is something to it. [Based on our research,] the short answer is no, not really, at least not in developed markets like the US or the UK… Furthermore, most of the popular TA indicators that are bandied around are nonsense jargon and should be ignored as useless noise. [Let us explain our position.] Words: 2143
February 5th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
What hope can there be for motivated stock pickers – no matter how much they sweat and toil – to outperform the low-cost index funds that simply mechanically track the market? Well – in spite of the absurd rise of the Nobel-acclaimed, and highly promoted, Efficient Market Hypothesis that claims that individual investors can’t beat the market – it turns out there is plenty! Just ask Warren Buffett, for one. [Let me explain.] Words: 1574
February 5th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
At the end of November 2011 the U.S. behavioral indicator for the U.S. stock market, based on insights on investor psychology, touched the crisis threshold for the fifth time (1971,1979, 1986, 2006) since 1970. If the current case follows the four prior cases, we expect a similar positive return from November 2011 to the end of October 2012 as in the four prior periods followed by a decline somewhere between 15% and 30%. [Let me explain.] Words: 317
January 29th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
U.S. stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since at least 1990, according to such commonly used valuations as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios as well as dividend yield…but [we ask,] cheaper than what? Different “investments” are valued differently at different times during the artificial central-banking business cycle that we must function under. In this case, we would argue, stocks are more likely reflecting potential chaos to come than a buying opportunity. Sure, there may be rallies during this fiat bear market but they should be considered within the context of the larger trends.
January 16th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395
January 8th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
[While] I do not prescribe to the 2012 end of the world or end of an era phenomenon, my recent fractal (pattern) analysis of the Dow suggests that it is forming a similar pattern to that which was formed in the late 60s to early 70s and if this pattern continues in a similar manner…the Dow could indeed have an annus horribilis (horrible year) in 2012. Let me explain. Words: 1416
January 6th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
This post initiates what I hope will become a multi-year tradition of listing what, according to munKNEE.com readers, were the most read articles in 2011 on how best to invest in the stock market from a broad, and therefore timeless, perspective. Introductory paragraphs and links to each article are provided in descending order of popularity. Enjoy!
January 1st, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
If you are tired of spending hours each week surfing the net or even visiting your up-to-now favourite financial site looking for articles that are extremely informative, relatively brief and very well-written, then go no further than munKNEE.com. Here is a sampling of articles posted on the site this past week related to what is happening in the economy and the gold market and what the future holds for its price. Words: 1628
December 26th, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
History has shown that investors who stick to disciplined, fundamental-focused strategies give themselves a good chance of beating the market over the long haul and James O’Shaughnessy has compiled data that stretches back to before the Great Depression…back-tested numerous strategies, and has come to some very intriguing conclusions. [Let me share some of them with you.] Words: 1325
December 23rd, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Stocks and commodities are under pressure from the rising dollar. We have already seen a sizable pullback but there may be more to come in the next few trading sessions. While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in. Words: 222
December 22nd, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
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