The Dow is up almost 28% but the chart below showing how it’s 12% annualized gain over the past 5-years compares with past bull markets suggest we are probably not at a top – that “We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!” Take a look.
So says Chris Kimble (blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com) in paraphrased excerpts from his original article* entitled Have historical peaks taken place when the Dow did this?.
[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Kimble goes on to say, in further edited excerpts:
A look at the chart below illustrates the average 5-year annualized gains of the Dow over the past century.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE (Source: Ryan Detrick at Shaeffer Research)
As you can see the only time over the past 100-years that a major top took place with 5-year annualized gains in the 12% range took was in 2007. Other than that, most of the key tops in the Dow have taken place with much higher 5-year average returns.
Might this suggest that we are probably not currently at a top as so many pundits are saying and that, in fact, “We ain’t seen nothin’ yet?”
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
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