…Charts provide certainty, for they are absolute and the final word at the end of day, week, month, etc. There can be no dispute over a bar’s high, low and close, plus the volume, for whatever the time period under consideration. There is a high degree of logic within them and, while there can be differences of opinion over their interpretation, establishing a fixed set of parameters can mitigate most any potential dispute. [So just what are the charts saying about the current trend in gold and silver? Let’s take a look.]
So writes Michael Noonan (http://edgetraderplus.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Gold And Silver – Greater Certainty Is Found In Charts.
[The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Little can be added to the ongoing developments, from a fundamental perspective, that has not already been painfully scrutinized and presented in charts. When a change does occur, it always, (or almost always, to stave off picky detractors) shows up in the charts in some form of a change in price/volume behavior.
Charts present nothing more than up to the moment past tense facts in the form of price and volume. They are not predictive in value, contrary to many misconceptions, but they can be helpful to read the market’s intent. When one can get a fix on the intent, what is then required is confirmation in order to then act upon the developing information.
If one forms an opinion (Definition: A belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty) based upon a reading of a chart’s developing market activity, the opinion can be proven wrong, with the blame being assessed against the “faulty” chart, surely not one’s opinion. Alternatively, if one makes a reasoned determination about a market’s intent and then waits for confirmation to validate the intent, the odds of being successful increase dramatically [and that is what I do exclusively in my analysis of the markets].
For many who played the futures market, expecting to score big time on the anticipated sharp increase in gold/silver prices, the losses have been huge over the past 20 months. Opinions can be costly. However, if one had waited for confirmation that prices were in a clear up trend, as opposed the protracted trading range and now down trend, losses would not have occurred or would have been relatively smaller.
Without rules for engaging the markets, opinions do not matter, and blaming charts for the wrong reasons is a refusal to accept responsibility for not using confirming rules. No one can escape from forming an opinion. The difference comes in how it is executed in the marketplace. An “unconfirmed” opinion can be dangerous. Even a confirmed one can still prove wrong, but the circumstances are totally different.
To the charts.
We can assert the trend is down [in gold and silver] because of lower lows and lower highs. June is now just half-way through the month, so not much credence can be placed on the abbreviated information. What can be seen [see chart below] at this point is a very small range…[that has continued] following a small range in May that closed poorly.
What we know for certain is that the downtrends [in both gold and silver have] not yet changed, so lower prices can be expected. Whether lower prices develop cannot be known, but it would be a safe bet to not buy into a declining market. We may hold an opinion that gold will ultimately be considerably higher in value, but there is no confirmation that price has begun to rally.
We have repeatedly advocated buying, and personally holding physical gold, but for a different stated purpose, as a measure of insurance and the potential for creating wealth, based upon past history.
We have stated that wide range bars with closes in the middle tend to contain prices for some time, moving forward. That is an assessment based upon fact from proven market behavior. [See Markets Provide Us The Best Information, click on http://bit.ly/18pk8yE, first 3 gold charts, as examples].
There is insufficient market activity from which to draw a conclusion, at this date. There will be some kind of developing market activity that will alert us to a potential change, and even that will have to be confirmed by subsequent market behavior.
Can this be stopping activity from which price will turn around, or is it a temporary resting area before price resumes the trend lower? We do not know. In fact, no one knows. What we do know is that it does not matter. All we, or anyone, need do is wait for the market to confirm its advertised intent, and then follow the market. Too many try to lead the market, based on (ego) opinion(s).
The daily [chart below] confirms the weekly and monthly, at least in that the (paper) futures market is not going up. There we see the power of a wide range bar containing subsequent price activity, and the last 18 TDs, (Trading Days) show how weak the rally attempts have been.
The chart “story” remains the same: the price of gold is not going up, for now, no matter whose “opinion” you hear/read.
Silver is a bit more interesting… Past swing highs can often act as support, and how price reacts to the potential support factor will determine if the high will hold.
Right now, the April 2008 swing high has slowed, if not stopped, the decline. Confirmation of the “opinion” comes from the position of the close 3 months (bars) ago. It was in the middle of the range, telling us buyers were present at the lows, (an example of the logic mentioned earlier), and the following 2 bars have also held. In addition, we are seeing a clustering of closes. What that means is a balance between the forces of supply and demand. From balance comes imbalance, so at some point, we can expect directional movement, up or down, from this area.
The obvious question is posed on the chart: “Where are the sellers?”
Silver did not hold the wide range down bar in April, as gold did, but in the process of breaking and going lower, it has not gone much lower. The momentum has stopped, and we see that in how some of the bars have formed, based on factual observations. More developing price/volume activity is needed to determine the market’s intent. For sure, the paper market is not headed higher, at this juncture.
We said silver was more interesting. The two failed probe lower bars are important pieces of information. They are a demonstrated form of buyers supporting the market. Will it hold is the question? (Will that observation be confirmed?)
Additional information helped to give added confirmation to what we posed last week. [W]ill it hold? The past 5 trading days say yes, at least for now. That could change next week, with additional information, but next week has not yet happened, so one can only base a decision on what is.
In the previous week and now with last week added, we are seeing a slowing of the downward momentum, (remember the monthly swing high potential support). Is it enough to stop the decline? It is a question many would like to know, but not important to know, because the market will provide us with confirming market behavior that will then put us in a position to possibly take a position. REMEMBER: If this happens, then do that. Just like not putting the cart before the horse, one does not “do that” before the If.
What we know for certain, based upon facts presented in the charts as derived from the market, the best source of all, is not to be buying the paper futures market…
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
Other Recent Noonan Articles:
Never go against the market. It does not matter what your beliefs are…It does not matter what the fundamentals are either. [What matters] is the TREND! Once you know the trend is up you need a game plan on how to participate from the buy side and when the trend is down, a plan ion how to participate from the short side. If there is no trend, then the odds are not favorable for either game plan.[So exactly what are the charts saying about the trend in gold and silver these days? Read on!] Read More »
The monthly silver chart does not reflect what could be viewed as ending action for the decline. If/as price rallies, it may be more of a futures selling opportunity than a sign of recovery. As the structure stands, odds favor lower price attempts. Read More »
The next chapter [in gold and silver] has yet to be written. One thing is likely to be certain, it will get uglier. The public will not be prepared for what could take a few more years to develop, and the potential for yet much lower prices for both gold and silver. Read More »