Tuesday , 19 September 2017


Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Recession Coming?

So says James Picerno (www.capitalspectator.com) in edited excerpts from an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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Picerno goes on to say:

The Chicago Fed index’s three-month moving average slipped to –0.28 in August from –0.27 in July, the Chicago Fed reports. No one will confuse that reading with a healthy economy, but it’s not a recession signal either. Technically, we’re in a “below trend” environment. By the rules of this benchmark, the tipping point is when the three-month average falls below -0.70. The latest reading of -0.28 for August is slightly above that level, but the margin of comfort is minimal.

Conclusion

It seems that we’re one exogenous shock away from deep trouble.

*http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2011/10/one_exogenous_s.html#more
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