Coming Move In Gold Will See It Reach $3,200 by Late 2014 or Early 2015
The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies [and that] gold is just creating the conditions – a T-1 pattern - necessary for its next leg up to what I expect to be…around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. [Let me explain.] Words: 560; Charts: 3
So writes Toby Connor (http://goldscents.blogspot.ca) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Major Top in Stocks & Major Bottom in Gold.
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Connor goes on to write in further edited excerpts:
I am confident the latest counterfeiting operation by the Fed will push stocks up to at least test their 2007 highs, and expect we will see a marginal break above that level sometime this year – probably by the end of the month. My current guess is that we will get a “sell the news” type of event as soon as the sequestration can is kicked down the road and that will mark the top of this particular intermediate cycle. Make no mistake, though, we are still in a secular bear market. Stocks are testing their all-time highs at the same time earnings are in decline, GDP has turned negative, and unemployment is starting to tick up.
Inflationary Surge Coming in Price of Gold
The stock market topping process will… be very extended and difficult…[and during the] process I expect to see an inflationary surge very similar to what happened in the oil markets during the 2007 top…This time, however, I don’t think it’s going to be oil leading the inflationary charge. In order to generate that kind of move we need something that has formed a long consolidation, similar to what happened in oil, and preferably an asset that has declined long enough and far enough to push sentiment to negative extremes capable of convincing everyone that the bull market is over. Those are the conditions necessary in order to generate a massive parabolic move over the next two years [and] the only asset that qualifies is, in my opinion, the precious metals markets.
What a T-1 Pattern Means for Gold
A T-1 pattern, similar to what happened in oil during ’07-’08, is now unfolding in the gold market. The rules of a T-1 pattern state that:
a move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move.
Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.
I think thegold chart is setting up to produce a monstrous T-1 pattern with a target around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. Investors just need to get through the bottoming process of this yearly cycle low. Considering that gold is now on the 15th week of its intermediate cycle, which usually lasts about 18-25 weeks We should be getting close. The last intermediate cycle ran a bit long at 25 weeks. Long cycles are usually followed by a short cycle so I would expect this cycle to run a bit short at 16-18 weeks.
All in all, I expect a final bottom sometime in the next 5-10 days and once that bottom has formed gold should be ready to break out of the consolidation zone it has been in over the last year and a half and get busy delivering the second leg of that T-1 pattern.
Editor’s Note:The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
One never knows exactly where Precious Metals are going so I always try to keep in mind a list of items that are probable based on the facts that are evident. I call this “what we know” and “what we don’t know” so let’s take a look what we “know” and “don’t know” at this point in time. Words: 872
My forecast — despite all the hate mail and pressure I get to change it — has not changed. Based on my systems and models, I will not turn bullish on gold until either spot gold has closed above $1,823 an ounce on a weekly and monthly basis – or gold cracks the $1,527 level and plunges to the $1,400 level or a tad lower. I know that’s not what you want to hear. I know that you are as eager as I am to see the next leg of gold’s bull market begin….[but its] time to shine is not here yet. It will come again so stay the course, build up your ammo, and be ready to pull the trigger when I issue a headline like “Back Up the Truck, NOW!”
Precious Metals are now at an important crossroad….Over the last several quarters, this sector has under-performed against equities as well as bonds but that might change very soon [as it is at several key decision points as to whether it goes up or down. Let me explain.] Words: 1080; Charts: 10
The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come. Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense. We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500 [so] if you are unable to buy at this time there is one thing you can do – to get into the fight and out of the stands. That act is do nothing, and do not capitulate. Let them play the price game, but give them nothing whatsoever of yours. Words: 758
There is a nasty game taking place which relies entirely on scaring you out of your wits. Yes, out of your mind, so you sell something of great value for peanuts to the exact party playing with your head via price. When you must look at the action, remember there is a buyer for every seller. That buyer is not scared out of his/her wits if you sell to stop the pain you are in. This period is, in my opinion, the last and largest attack you will see perpetrated on us before gold closes over $3500. This period of pain will not be measured in months, but counted in history as days. Stand firm and stay the course! Words: 787
Gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year yet, in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. This article discusses 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap. Words: 444
I expect gold to move sideways or trend down in the first half of 2013 [and, as such,] I would consider this as a good opportunity to buy gold as there is still no long-term fix in place for the economic and financial problems [that the U.S., and indeed the world, face. Here's why]. Words: 665; Charts: 5
People who are saying there is no reason to buy gold now, never understood the reason people were buying it in the first place. People weren’t buying gold because they were worried about a crisis in the Eurozone or weak US stocks. People were buying gold because central banks were printing too much money. It’s inflation that drives the gold train, not political uncertainty.
The mining stocks have been a disaster if you’ve invested in the average fund, GDX or GDXJ and if you’ve invested in the wrong stocks, they’ve been a total disaster and you will now hate the sector forever. We’ve certainly been surprised by this protracted struggle. In my articles you’ve heard me talk about accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities. The gold stocks are setting up similarly to the bottom in 2005 [and, as such,] are set to test a major bottom and could be on the cusp of a major reversal. Let me explain. Words: 438; Charts: 3
Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive. That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time.
President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that’s good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there’s no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years – statistical anomaly or otherwise – it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1
Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don’t let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873
The timing of this article may seem incongruous given the current weak performance of gold and gold stocks but that was the identical situation in each of the past manias – both the metal and the equities didn’t excel until the frenzy kicked in. The following documentation (exact returns from specific companies during this era are identified) is actually a fresh reminder of why we think you should hold on to your positions – or start accumulating them, if you haven’t already. (Words: 1987; Tables: 7)
There are countless articles available for free suggesting what to expect short- and long-term in the markets but what are those analysts who charge a fee for their insights and recommendations saying these days? Same old, same old or unique and actionable? One such subscription market timing service has pulled back the veil to give us a peek at what could well be unfolding. Words: 906; Charts: 8 links
All fundamentals and opinions are useless in the markets because they pertain to timing, and timing plays a huge role when investing/trading….[and only] put one’s belief system into a context with regard to the market[s]….It does not matter what others say about the market; what matters is what the market says about others. The market is, and always will be, the final arbiter of all “facts” and “opinions.” [This article give an update on exactly what the charts are currently saying about gold and silver.]
All known information is contained in the charts, and being able to read them is a distinct advantage. The best way to achieve that advantage is to learn to make distinctions contained in the charts from one day/week/month to the next and this article does just that for both gold and silver. [Take a look.] Words: 1375; Charts: 6
The U.S. Dollar is being very aggressively devalued in a parabolic…[manner] as we enter the final stage in the paper currency cycle. The government needs Gold to go vastly higher so the budget can be balanced after all of the paper promise debts are added to the balance sheet. Interestingly, Michael Belkin, arguably one of the best analysts in the world, expects earnings for companies to plunge this year causing the DJIA to crater about 30%. This fits with the kind of correction in the now high flying DJIA that we have discussed per the late 70’s charts where Gold and the Dow would meet between 10,000 and 12.000. Words: 1022
There is an increasingly disorderly currency war going on out there, and the advantage of gold is clear– they can’t print it, they can’t default on it, and there will always be demand for it. Simply put, in the global currency wars, owning gold is like abandoning the battlefield altogether. Words: 270; Charts: 2
When are Gold and Silver going to start a huge parabolic move up? I, personally, think that we are sitting at the cusp [of such happening] as we speak on an intermediate-term basis….Below are… the fundamentals and technical set-up [to that end].
Gold investors often fail to watch the Federal Reserve with enough attention to detail and can miss buying opportunities like the present one, as a result. The case for gold is as strong as ever and I outline in this article why with details you’re unlikely to see anywhere else. Words: 775; Charts: 6
Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2
The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events. The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
While the debate rages on about whether or not gold/silver are in some kind of investment bubble, the facts completely obliterate any possible argument supporting the “bubble” thesis. [Here they are.] Words: 585
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system…and the amount of money printed is absolutely staggering. As a result of this, inflation hedges, particularly Gold, have been soaring…[but] for gold, for example, to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it would have to hit $4,666 per ounce. Words: 581
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The closing of the gold window back in August 1971 has led governments worldwide to create endless amounts of worthless paper money and the resulting credit bubble has created a world debt exposure of over US$ 1 quadrillion (including derivatives). It has also created perceived wealth for big parts of the world’s population – a wealth which is only backed by promises to pay and by grossly inflated assets. Few people realise that this wealth is totally illusory and will implode considerably faster than the time it took to create it. [Let me explain.] Words: 890
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767
The correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89.65%! More specifically, the correlation from 1975 until April 1979 and from January 2008 until today is an astonishing 97.83% suggesting that gold will reach an ultimate top of $5,000 per troy ounce before the bubble bursts. Words: 330
It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Furthermore, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. If real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade). Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate. [Let me explain.] Words: 982
I believe that the price of gold will… reach… $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 [per troy] ounce…during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it…[although] prices will remain extremely volatile – with big swings both up and down along a rising trend…The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, demographic, and political developments [and in this article] I review some of these developments and trends – so that you can come to your own “golden” conclusions. Words: 3800
[Here is a summary of my]…thoughts on the 2011 gold price peak relative to the last time a long term bull market ended (back in 1980): Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter. A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…[Let me explain further.] Words: 359; Charts: 1