Larry Edelson’s proprietary cycle analyses suggests that we could experience declines in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 to 9,000 and 1,000, respectively, by April of 2011; a potential decline in the price of gold to as low as $1126 by August of 2011 and a decline in the price of crude oil to as low as $69 next year – before taking off to record highs.
So says Larry Edelson (uncommonwisdomdaily.com)
My cycle charts – my market roadmaps – for the Dow, gold and oil are based on actual signals from my computer models… [the result of] 32 years of research and development…are right far more often than they are wrong. [In fact,] they are my main forecasting tools. [Let’s take a look at what they reveal.]
Future Dow 30 and S&P 500 Stock Market Cycle
All of my cycle indicators continue to strongly suggest that the March 2009 low at 6,469 in the Dow and 667 in the S&P 500 were major lows and that the broad stock markets are now back in long-term bull markets [and are] headed to new record highs by late 2015, early 2016. That’s not to say there won’t be any pullbacks in stocks going forward. There will be.
For the next four years, the Dow and S&P 500 will cycle up and down in a very wide trading range, then blast off to new highs in late 2015. You can see the projected pattern in this monthly S&P 500 cycle chart. Some key cycle signals to watch:
a) in the Dow Industrials:
i) a closing above 11,256 will lead to a cycle rally to 11,887.19 [with] support going into April of next year at 9,034.
ii) in between 11,256 and 9,034 the Dow cycle is essentially neutral in trend on a long-term basis.
iii) a close above 11,887.19 is an all-out buy signal.
b) in the S&P 500:
i) in between 1,292.90 and 1,007.40 on the downside the S&P 500…will swing wildly and, as such, the cycle is effectively neutral in trend.
ii) [there will probably be a test of] the 1,000 level going into April of next year, but
iii) any close above 1,292.90 is an all-out buy signal.
The Cycle for Gold: Downside of $1,246; Upside of ?
Short term, the cycle indicates that gold is topping and likely headed into a cycle low due in August of next year… [which] could simply mean that gold trades sideways with the sideways cycle trend ending in August, and then gold blasts off again.
a) If the cycle for gold closes below $1,246 …we will likely see a move down to the $1,126 level heading into August 2011 but that’s about it for the downside in gold. Even in the worst of cases, I do not see gold moving lower than that.
b) On the flip side, if gold closes above its recent record high… at any time… gold will blast off and cycle sharply higher into August of next year.
c) So right now, in between $1,246 on the downside and gold’s current trading levels — the cycle for gold is effectively neutral, neither in danger of falling sharply, or taking off to the upside.
Market Cycle for Crude Oil: $69.15 – $125
Oil is still very much in a long-term uptrend cycle. I expect it to reach an intermediate-term high next September, somewhere north of $125 a barrel and then, after a cycle decline into 2012, I expect new record highs in oil in November 2013.
a) for the next few months the price of oil is likely to continue to cycle in a very wide range defined by $84.55 on the upper end and $69.15 per barrel on the lower end.
b) a weekly close above $84.55… will then [lead to] $125 oil next year.
c) the cycles now show the next major turning point for oil in September 2011. Could we be facing another 911 (9/11/11) then? I am not the superstitious kind but every cycle has an uncanny way of shedding light on the future – in more ways than most would like to believe.
Keep the above signals and cycle turning points on your radar!