Friday , 28 April 2017


Fasten Your Seat Belts! Here’s My U.S. Domestic Forecast For 2015

Fasten your seat belts! Below is my forecast (Part 3) of what will unfold in the U.S. in 2015.US-Flag Forecasts related to geopolitical particulars covering Russia, China, Japan, USA, Europe & the Islamic State (Part 2) and financial matters covering banking & oil (Part 1)) are covered in additional posts.

By James Howard Kunstler (kunstler.com) as originally* entitled Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane. Read Part 1 here; Part 2 here.

The USA Homefront 2015

The nation has gotten itself into a pretty sorry state:

  • the pervasive racketeering that poisons American life from the money-in-politics farce,
  • the shameless, chiseling medical-pharma cabal,
  • the SNAP-card and disability rights empire of grift,
  • the college loan swindle,
  • the disgusting security state apparatus,
  • the corporate tyranny of local life and economies,
  • the delusional techno-narcissism of the media,
  • the despotic and puerile gender preoccupations of academia.

It all adds up to a society that cares as little for the present as it does for the future – and that’s aside from:

  • the pathetic digital device addiction of the generation coming up, and
  • the sheer sordid behavior of the tattooed, drug-saturated, pornified masses of adults now forever foreclosed from a purposeful existence or a decent standard of living.

Physically America is a sorry-ass spectacle:

  • decrepitating cities,
  • abandoned Main Streets,
  • gruesome strip-mall highways,
  • repellent and monotonous suburbs,
  • dreary industrial ruins,
  • profaned countryside, and
  • desecrated coastline.

There is little left to actually love about This land is Your Land. We’ve made so many collective bad choices about how we live that one can’t help feeling we are simply a wicked people who deserve to be punished…

  • What used to be a working class with aspirations has devolved to the forlorn savagery averred to above.
  • Our thought-leaders are devoid of thought.
  • Our hopes and dreams are absurd sci-fi fantasies prompting us toward robot-assisted suicide.
  • Our political stratagems of recent years accomplish nothing except making more trouble for ourselves while inciting the enmity of people elsewhere.

Barack Obama’s signal failure — aside from letting the banks get away with murder and omitting to counter the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision — has been his total evasion of measures that would prepare the nation for the vast changes in social and economic imperative that will attend the transition out of the techno-industrial era when he is out of office. These include:

  • supporting local small scale agriculture (rather than giant corporate agri-biz);
  • promoting and supporting the reconstruction of local economic networks (Main Street business);
  • eliminating multitudinous federal regulations that prevent individuals and small enterprises from operating;
  • closing the hundreds of superfluous U.S. military bases around the world;
  • giving federal support to rebuild the U.S. passenger rail system;
  • promoting walkable communities — especially the re-activation of existing small towns and cities — instead of mindless obeisance to the suburban “home-building” industry (and its step-child in the commercial highway strip development racket) — and
  • truly reforming medical care without the connivance of the insurance racketeers.

Obama and his party can be faulted for fostering the myth that every young person needs a college degree — leading a whole generation into debt penury for no good purpose, while depriving society of a long list of vocational roles and livelihoods based on providing genuine service or value. We will be a nation of unemployed gender studies graduates instead of plumbers, electricians, organic farmers, arborists, carpenters, machinists, nurses and paramedics, small business owners, et cetera.

This enormous bundles of myths and misplaced expectations for yesterday’s tomorrow prevents the collective national imagination from summoning a revised American Dream based on repairing the massive destruction of recent decades.

The political mood has not been murkier in my longish lifetime.

  • Both major parties edge toward extinction…People who still read the news in some form and would like to care about their country deserve a new faction or party that can at least express their discontent with the current situation. They will surely not get this in the generally supposed coming contest between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. I hope they will be so insulted by this dynastic grab that more than one new party will form and make a big stank about it. The Tea Party was a good start in that spirit, but it tripped on its internal contradictions and its association with Dixieland-style religious fundamentalist idiocy and cracker war-mongering.
  • All that redounds on the current state of the Republican Party, a gang of venal ignoramuses pimping for lost causes. Despite having won the 2014 midterms, and capturing both houses of congress and governorships, they seem increasingly out-of-touch with the realities of economic contraction, peak oil, and climate irregularities. The old magic of stirring up the animals on social issues of abortion, bedroom activities, and allegiance to Jesus fail to move the old base, which is becoming economically quite desperate. That base also becomes conscious of how they have been hornswoggled into voting against their own interests for years in the sense that author Thomas Frank so aptly described in What’s the Matter With Kansas.

Race relations turned very sour in 2014 with more highly publicized killings of young black men in ambiguous circumstances.

  • The chief martyr of the year, Michael Brown of Ferguson, Mo., was a poor candidate for sainthood, and did not help advance the credibility of claims that police brutality rather than the misbehavior of young men is behind a lot of strife abroad in the land. One gets the feeling that black race hustlers are in the driver’s seat recklessly pushing African Americans toward open warfare with everybody else.
  • My view of the situation is…that black separatism and its offshoots in “diversity” politics and multi-culturalism tragically promote an antagonistic, alienated, oppositional black politics at the expense of a common culture for blacks and whites with common values and common standards of behavior.

It has gotten so bad that reasonable people can sadly conclude that the long civil rights project has ended in failure. We are treading on dangerous ground here, with foolishly outmoded ideas about what to expect from each other, and of course all this begs the questions: What now? What next?

Domestic Forecast Particulars for 2015 

  1. Markets tank in Q3 destroying the illusion of “recovery.” It becomes obvious that the story was a lie and the public mood grows much more surly.
  2. 2014 proves to be the year of peak shale oil. After the shakeout of 2015 due to low oil prices, production never returns to previous levels. The fairy tales of “energy independence” and “Saudi America” fall apart, deeply demoralizing a gulled public and adding yet another layer of discredit to the people in charge of things.
  3. Different kinds of political revolt break out around the country among varied groups, left, right, and center. Some of it revolves around life-and-death struggles for the souls of the floundering major parties. Some of it is organized violence against the government and especially against the US security state apparatus, including overly militarized local police forces.
  4. Low-grade racial warfare erupts across the U..S. Flash mobs, knock-out games, lootings, and hammer attack type outrages generate counter-attacks. By summertime the conflict heats up. Firefights become routine and casualties mount. President Obama proves to be tragically ineffectual in restoring peace.
  5. Anti-immigration sentiment in Europe spreads to the U.S. as falling oil prices produce political disorder in Mexico prompting tens of thousands to try to flee north.
  6. Bank of America is the first of the Too Big To Fails to enter the event horizon of failure. Obama can’t get Congress to go along with a bailout. By Thanksgiving, there is turmoil among the banks as they scramble to cover losses. A public furor over using taxpayer money to cover derivatives losses leads to an unprecedented concerted action by states to attempt “nullification” campaigns.
  7. Citibank applies for a bail-in of account holders. Dithering, frightened federal authorities are too slow to respond, permitting a run on deposits.
  8. Hillary is loudly booed and hectored at campaign stops as “a tool of Wall Street.” Her coffers overflow with TBTF bank contributions. She bows out of the presidential contest as the public mood toward her sours, but not before she generates a lot of resentful opposition and alienates many Democratic Party voters who are also furious over the eight-years of Obama’s “hope” and “change” hand-jive. Elizabeth Warren is dragooned to replace her — dubbed the “Un-Hillary” — rescuing the party from a near-death experience. She openly feuds with party bosses, who plot against her, and undermine her campaign.
  9. Senator Rand Paul agitates to abolish the Federal Reserve. His Senate colleagues are shamed into considering legislative reform of the Fed’s mandate. Debate on the issue is the only thing the Republican dominated congress and senate accomplish in 2015. Paul decides to challenge Jeb Bush for the 2016 nomination. This blows the Republican party apart.
  10. At Christmas 2015, the DJA sits at 13,500, the S & P is at 1200, gold is at $1750 and silver at $42.

Good luck everybody. Gird your loins and fasten your seat belts.

[The above article is presented by  Lorimer Wilson, editor of  www.munKNEE.com and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample hereregister here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

*Original Source: http://kunstler.com/forecast/forecast-2015/ (KUNSTLER © 2015. All Rights Reserved.)

Stay connected!

Related Articles:

1. My Financial Forecast For 2015 – Gird Your Loins & Fasten Your Seat Belts!

“Gird your loins and fasten your seat belts!” Below is Part 1 of my forecast for 2015 related to financial (incl. banking & oil) matters. Those related to geopolitical (incl. Russia, China, Japan, USA, Europe & the Islamic State) particulars and U.S. domestic (incl. political, political & societal) particulars are covered in subsequent articles. Read More »

2. Here’s My Geopolitical Forecast For 2015: “Good Luck Everybody!”

The signal event of 2015 will be the disintegration of Tom Friedman’s global economy, the trade and banking relations we have known for about a quarter century, especially the frictionless flow of goods and capital between East and West. Read More »

3. Financial Entertainment On the Breakdown of the USA: “The Mayans R Us”!

The Mayans R us. One year, they were cavorting bloodthirstily atop their garish painted pyramids and a generation later the jungle was stealing back over the temple steps and the population was a tenth of its former size. The same thing is going to happen to us, except there will be a hell of a lot more worthless, toxic debris left on the landscape. We enter 2015 with greater tensions than ever before and therefore the likelihood that the inevitable breakdown will release more destructive energy and be that much harder to recover from. Read More »