I am astonished to see how much money the central banks are printing and how their balance sheets are expanding. We have the absolute perfect recipe for hyperinflation and thus a massive increase in the price of gold and silver.

So said Egon von Greyerz (www.goldswitzerland.com) in edited excerpts from an interview* with King World News.

 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

von Greyerz went on to say, in part:

It’s not just the ECB balance sheet that’s gone up in the last six months or even the last three months by hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s the same with the Fed, Bank of Japan, The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. They are all exploding. This can lead to only one thing -  an explosion higher in gold and silver prices and the beginning of the massive inflation, which will lead to hyperinflation. Unfortunately, the market seems to be totally ignorant of this.

Regarding the Fed

The recent Fed action is totally consistent with what we’ve said for some time. The Fed knows they have to continue to print money and they will print unlimited amounts of money. On top of this, the U.S. is not taking any measures whatsoever to cut down on spending.

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Every year the Fed is printing between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. As you know, just during President Obama’s term the debt in the U.S. has gone up by about $4.5 trillion. This is about 30% of total borrowing in the U.S. It’s just incredible and it’s accelerating – but they are not the only central bank doing this. The ECB is in the same mess…

Regarding Gold

The move in gold, so far, looks extremely good. I’m always pleased that we don’t have a straight move up, although I do think we will have faster moves higher in the not too distant future. This is strong action with small corrections.

I think that within the next couple of months we will certainly be touching $1,900 and continuing higher from there. I don’t think $1,900 will be a stopping point for very long.

Regarding Silver

I really like the action of silver. Silver still hasn’t broken out like gold has, but I can see $37 being taken out within the next 30 days and then we will just start flying from there. It won’t take long to get up to $50 again.”…

Regarding Mining Shares

Regarding mining shares, I like them here. We’ve started buying them. We prefer physical bullion, but we’ve now started buying mining shares because they are massively undervalued and they will move a lot faster than the metals…

Conclusion

[As I said at the top of the article the actions of the central banks around the world] can lead to only one thing – an explosion higher in gold and silver prices and the beginning of the massive inflation, which will lead to hyperinflation.

*http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/vongreyerz-gold-market-positioned-for-massive-upside-move/

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1. Creating More Inflation is Now the Official Policy of the Fed

The Fed is completely convinced that without an inexorably rising rate of inflation there won’t be enough money made available to finance our rapidly increasing national debt. [As such, they have just] disclosed that they now have an inflation goal of at least two percent . As a result, we are stuck with a perpetually decreasing standard of living, a middle class that is on the endangered species list and provided the holders of U.S. dollars a target rate for its destruction…[Indeed,] Bernanke’s actions are so destructive to savers that I’m sure if he were a broker, he would be telling his clients to buy more gold.

2. Williams STILL Believes a Hyperinflationary Great Depression is Coming! Here’s Why

The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last five years continue to deteriorate yet they remain just the precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system, as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment.

3.  Why More QE is Coming and What That Means for the Future Price of Gold

Most traders and some economists believe the Fed will step in with another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) in the first half of 2012. This will pump up the stock market, particularly bank stocks, giving the impression that the US economy can’t be that bad, after all, [but in the process] debase the dollar and reduce purchasing power. [This, in turn, will result in higher]…inflation causing prudent investors to buy more gold. [Let me explain further what I see transpiring this quarter and why.] Words: 718

4. 2012: More Money-printing Leading to Accelerating Inflation, Rising Interest Rates & Then U.S. Debt Crisis! Got Gold?

Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660

5. These Indicators Say Inflation to Go to 4% Soon – and 6% by 2014

In response to the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed injected unprecedented levels of liquidity into the banking system. While inflation has been modest to date, an analysis of similar periods in history shows that it typically takes more than two years for the impact on consumer prices to be seen. Consequently, we are now at a pivotal point in the current cycle as Fed stimulus began more than two years ago. [Let me explain further.] Words: 2755

6. Will This Be The USA in 2012?

The economic condition of the country continues to decline toward its rendezvous with an, as yet, unknowable catastrophe. Here is… a look (not a prediction) at a series of not improbable events that could develop [and which] would change our economic world overnight. Words: 1550

7. Coming Inflation to Make U.S. Dollar Not Only Worth Less – But Worthless!

The Federal Reserve is now trying to figure out ways to boost inflation expectations… so that Americans are encouraged to spend more before their money is worth less. Unfortunately, not only will their money soon be worth less, it will literally become worthless! Words: 904

8. News Flash! The Fed Has Declared That It MUST Create Inflation! Got Gold?

In… September’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, the Fed officially announced that … “Unless … underlying inflation moved back toward a level consistent with the Committee’s mandate, they would consider it appropriate to take action soon” and take “… possible steps to affect inflation expectations.” That’s Fed-speak for a MANDATE TO CREATE INFLATION! Words: 694

9. The Fed MUST Inflate Away Debt or Default So MAJOR Inflation IS Coming!

If our assessment is correct, over the coming years, stocks, precious metals, commodities and real-estate will appreciate in value versus paper currencies. Furthermore, on a relative basis, we expect precious metals and commodities to outperform all other asset-classes. Conversely, we anticipate that cash and fixed income instruments will probably turn out to be the worst assets to own over the next decade. Words: 869

10. Major Changes in Inflation, Interest Rates, ‘Taxes’ and U.S. Dollar Coming

The economy is now so manipulated by politicians, big bankers, and special-interest groups that making sense of the markets has become an almost impossible feat. Which is to say, it must push even harder on the levers of its printing presses, further setting the stage for the massive period of inflation we continue to see as inevitable… and for a stunning rise in interest rates. Words: 968

11. Gold Price Keeps Going Higher As U.S. Debt Keeps Increasing – Got Gold?

Will our National Debt be trillions higher than today in a few years? If you think the answer is yes, than buying physical gold today is a good idea. It’s that simple. Just look at the chart. Words: 140

12. Here’s Proof: Global Central Bankers are Driving Up the Price of Gold!

Check out this chart (via Ed Yardeni) that shows the price of gold relative to U.S. Treasury and U.S. agency securities held by the Federal Reserve and other central banks – a VERY interesting correlation to say the least. Words: 260

Graduating from college can be an exciting and stressful time. Suddenly you need to find a job, replay loans and make solid financial decisions. Fortunately, you don’t need to be unprepared. Below are some budgeting basics to keep your spending under control, some suggestions on how to set financial goals and a list of the top 10 American cities for starting out.

Muhammad Saleem contributed the graphics below from www.onlinecollege.org as presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!). Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.  

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1. Think Differently and Become More Successful in Business, Life and Making Money! Here’s How

Objective and independent thinking is increasingly important to investing and trading success, particularly in the current and prospective economic and financial market times. How do you score yourself against the 15 ‘successful people traits’ outlined below? Words: 855

2. Do You Have What It Takes to Become Filthy Rich?

Saving money isn’t all about whether or not you know how to score screaming bargains. It has more to do with your attitude toward money. Many millionaires, in fact, have frugal ways and understanding how personal traits can influence your finances is an essential ingredient for building wealth. Do you have the 10 key traits to become rich let alone very, very rich? Words: 815

3. 2 Ways to Reduce Your Debts Using the “Snowball” Method

What is the best way to reduce debt? The most-efficient means is probably the snowball method. There are two main variations of the snowball method, but you must consider your personality to determine which of the two is right for you. [Let me explain.] Words: 1251

4. 10 Money Ideas That WILL Change Your Life

Personal finance isn’t nuclear physics – just spend less than you earn, save and invest the rest – but knowing what should be done and actually doing it, however, are two different things. Here are 10 money lessons I wish I had known when I was 20 which have the power to change your life if you are willing to embrace them. Words: 1340

5. In Debt? Here are 10 Ways Out

When people talk about getting their personal finances in order, they usually try to find relatively pain-free and low-cost ways to reduce debt and increase savings but this is a long-term approach which some people just cannot “afford”. [For them] …it may be worthwhile to consider taking the hard way out of debt. [Let me explain.] Words: 1370

6. Don’t be Cheap, be Frugal! Here are 10 Ways to Get More for Your Money

Frugality often gets a bad rap. Many people misunderstand frugality and assume that it’s nothing more than being “cheap” when, in reality, frugality is making sure that you get the most from the money and resources you have, even if they are limited. [Here are 10 ways to do just that.] Words: 1132

The interim peaks in gold have been spaced 21 months apart over the past 6 years and have seen gains from 80.2% to 97.3%. As such, given the fact that the low of this last correction came in at $1,524 four months ago, we can expect gold to reach a new peak price of $2,750 to $3,000 in 17 months time (i.e. June/July 2013). [Let me explain in more detail.]

So says David Nichols (www.fractalgoldreport.com/) in paraphrased remarks from his original article*.

 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Nichols goes on to say, in part:

The last recession in 2008, with its accompanying financial crisis, caused a massive bout of deflation, which slaughtered gold and other financial assets, while triggering a major run up in the dollar so it’s critical to know if a similar bout of deflation is coming now. And gold is a highly sensitive barometer on this. If we pay careful attention, gold will give us the accurate forecast.

I want to take a minute to briefly discuss deflation and de-leveraging, because these are terms that are bandied about a lot, but perhaps not with optimal clarity, as there is a certain glaze-over factor with this type of economic jargon.

The main idea is that when a debt is written down — or “marked to market” — it tightens the money supply, which in turn causes deflation. For example, if your neighbor has an $800,000 mortgage, and because of declining real estate values he negotiates to have it lowered to $600,000, that is $200,000 wiped from the money supply. [As such,] if a recession triggers another round of debt write-downs - because people and companies don’t have the cash-flow to cover debt payments - it can cause a massive contraction in the money supply. This type of deflation makes the value of the dollar skyrocket, because suddenly there are fewer dollars floating around, and the scarcer something becomes, the more valuable it gets. This is what happened during the financial debacle in 2008.

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It’s absolutely critical for gold bulls to realize that this type of de-leveraging, with the accompanying deflation, is just terrible for gold. Gold gets creamed in this macro-environment, along with just about everything else.

It’s also important to understand how this relates to the Fed, and its efforts to re-flate the economy. The reality is the beleaguered Fed can’t create new dollars quickly enough to keep up with the dollars being wiped out by bad debts. This is why the Fed can pump trillions of dollars into the economy and not cause hyper-inflation – [and why] it’s a big deal when the Fed tells us it’s going to keep fighting deflation into “late 2014.” That’s nearly 3 years from now. There are a lot of trillions between now and then.

Essentially, the Fed just [said] that they - along with every other politician and central banker out there, in…[North America], Europe and Asia - will continue to make the easiest, most expedient policy decisions that carry the least amount of potential “blowback” on their own careers and future earnings. The fix-it-as-best-you-can macro-environment will continue, as it always does.

[True,] there are “Black Swans” and “Derivative Risks” and a bunch of scenarios that could cause another bad crisis, but here’s the thing: the gold market is not sensing any black swans – and it always gives plenty of warning if it does.

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This is a long-winded way of establishing that gold is free to soar right now. In fact, if this latest correction is over, then there is a juicy 17-month window of opportunity for gold to really, really soar…because the interim peaks in gold are spaced 21 months apart [as can be seen in the graph below].

21 is a very important number for market timing cycles, in every time-frame. I won’t go into the details on why right here, but I do discuss the cycles in depth in my daily reports. It’s a simple thing to do the arithmetic on the size of each move up during these 21-month cycles, measuring from the corrective low to the Month 21 peak.

These 21-month cycles took gold up:

• 97.3%
• 89.4%
• 80.2%
• 84.2%

The low of this last correction came in at $1,524, so that is the starting point for the forward projection on the next 21-month peak.

If we go ahead and make the not-so-difficult assumption that gold is launching into another 21-month cycle to the upside — thank you Fed, thank you ECB — the target for this move is $2,750 to $3,000, with the next peak scheduled to arrive in June 2013, [early July at the latest]… (These projections…are subject to revision as real-time data comes in to confirm or refute. The key is to remain aware of the big road-map, but flexible if events don’t unfold as expected.)

*http://seekingalpha.com/article/333272-the-next-17-months-for-gold?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

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1. Leeb: Gold Going to $3,000 Before the End of 2012!

The Fed is [going to] keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014 [and that] is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years. In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around…We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.

2. Goldrunner Called $1,920 Gold High Exactly; Now Expects $3,000 – $3,500 by Mid-Year

Short-term volatile moves in Gold, as we have seen over the past few months, do not affect our projections for the future price of Gold based on our fractal (pattern) “model” off the late 70′s Gold Bull. Just as we correctly projected the $1,920 high in our April article entitled Goldrunner: Gold on track to Reach $1860 to $,920 by Mid-year (gold reached $1,917.20 in late August and $1,923.70 in early September, 2011), our current analysis indicates that Gold will enter a range between $3,000 and $3,500 by mid-year 2012. Words: 975

3. Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Puts Gold Near $4,000 by 2013 and $7-10,000 by 2020

Gold is operating on a smaller Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Cycle that is in synch with the larger Contracting Fibonacci Spiral the markets are in. Adding together the sum of parts… the price of gold will move up in price in 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020, with each subsequent leg moving less in percentage terms than the prior move. Gold advanced 4 foldish from 1999 until 2008 ($252/ounce to $1046/ounce) suggesting that gold should top out below $4000/troy ounce by the end of January, 2013…[on its way] to $7,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce by 2020. [Let me explain.] Words: 834

4. These 8 Analysts See Gold Going to $3,000 – $10,000 in 2012! Here’s Why

Back in 2009 I began keeping track of those financial analysts, economists, academics and commentators who were of the opinion that it was just a matter of time before gold reached a parabolic peak price well in excess of the prevailing price. As time passed the list grew dramatically and at last count numbered 140 such individuals who have gone on record as saying that gold will go to at least $3,000 – and as high as $20,000 – before the gold bubble finally pops. Of more immediate interest, however, is that 8 of those individuals believe gold will reach its parabolic peak price in the next 12 months – even as early as February, 2012. This article identifies those 8 and outlines their rationale for reaching their individual price expectations. Words:1450

5. New Analysis Suggests a Parabolic Rise in Price of Gold to $4,380/ozt.

According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740

In light of the unfolding global sovereign debt fiasco that has turned out to be less of a waterfall and more of an avalanche [than anticipated I present below a description of the 5 stages of collapse and discuss our preparedness. If you haven't read it yet, perhaps you should.] It has been read by 70,000+ people so far – and is still being read by an average of 1,500 people each month – on my site alone.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth.

Applying the Kübler-Ross Model to Economic Collapse

Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of:

• resource depletion,
• catastrophic climate change and
• political impotence.

So far, [however,] little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found a continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s “Long Emergency,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

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For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases.

Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point. Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, for example, [did not deprive the population of] food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. Many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout [the decline. Even though] there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse [and this] allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States…

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase [of collapse] to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual…

The 5 Stages of Collapse

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed [to] resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

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Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition…Let us sketch out this process.

Stage 1 (Financial) Collapse Scenarios

Stage 1 collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts:

1. a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development.
2. men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “fucked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘fucked up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the U.S. the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems…fit to do is:

• extend further credit to those in trouble,
• set interest rates at far below inflation,
• accept worthless bits of paper as collateral and
• pump money into insolvent financial institutions.

This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

Stage 2 (Commercial) Collapse Scenarios

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example:

• repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population.
• promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defence forces to maintain law and order.
• order the Army Corps of Engineers to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced.
• reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent.

With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. 

A much more likely scenario, however, is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests and:

• impose austerity conditions,
• maintain law and order through draconian means, and
• aide in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations.

As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

Stage 3 (Political) Collapse Scenarios

After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more”…

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 (Social) Collapse Scenarios

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

Stage 5 (Cultural) Collapse Scenarios

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book The Mountain People. If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

Conclusion

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

(In light of the unfolding global sovereign debt fiasco, I have issued an update [which I urge you to read. In it I come to the conclusion that, after] almost four lost years of both government and finance betting on a future that cannot exist, doubling down every time they lose again, the Five Stages of Collapse was nothing but a nice theory.

The [actual] effect, I think, will be to compress financial and political collapse into a single chaotic episode. Commercial collapse will not be far behind, because global commerce is dependent on global finance, and once international credit locks up the tankers and the container ships won’t sail. Shortly thereafter it will be lights out.)

*http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

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1. IMF Begs Policymakers to Prevent World Economy From Falling into a 1930s-style Death Spiral!

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) painted a stark picture of the global economy this week slashing the outlook for world growth while forecasting a damaging recession in Europe that will leave no country, including Canada and the U.S., unscathed. The report stated that financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated and, as such, policymakers must immediately move forward together to save the world economy from falling into a 1930s-style death spiral because the longer corrective action is put off the worse it will actually get. Words: 640

2. George Soros Predicts Economic Chaos/Conflict in Europe and Riots in the U.S.!

George Soros…is more concerned with surviving than staying rich…He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of “evil.” Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether. [Perhaps] we should be, too, [but as] we have often explained, [such comments ar nothing more than] the fear-based promotions of the power elite to frighten the middle classes into giving up power and wealth to globalist institutions. Let us explain.

3. Bank of Canada Report Suggests Economic Situation is Dire and Could Deteriorate Rapidly!

One typically doesn’t look to government bureaucracies to receive hard-nosed, objective discussions on the economy so you can magine my surprise when the latest Financial System Review, published semi-annually by the Bank of Canada, landed in my inbox and I discovered that it contained a very sobering look at Canada’s economy and the many systemic risks the country is facing! It’s not surprising that this report was not picked up by the main stream news, because if they did the popular opinion of Canada’s invincible, recession-proof economy might begin to crumble. [Let me explain.] Words: 2400

4. 2012: Is This How U.S. Financial Crisis Will Unfold Later This Year?

As economic and political matters become more desperate in the U.S., so will what the government considers acceptable. If a debt default cannot be engineered via continuous inflation as the Fed’s current money-printing is attempting to do, it will occur via a direct repudiation of obligations or a quasi-surreptitious one such the hypothetical one I present in this article. Here is… a look (not a prediction) at a series of not improbable events that could develop [and which] would change our economic world overnight[ - and your financial well-being too]. Words: 1365

5. Get Ready for Financial Crisis 2.0 in 2012 – It’s Inevitable! Here’s Why

This analyst sees the perfect storm of converging criteria almost perfectly timed and aligned with the 2012 election cycle. When the moment arrives, the financial earthquake will rapidly demolish the existing highly precarious financial system. Government will stand by helpless, unable to shield itself, much less its vulnerable citizens or private financial institutions from the tsunami of debt and currency destruction. 2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion. Let me explain. Words: 1443

6. Where Is This Unprecedented Global Financial Crisis Headed? A Retrospective from Alf Field

This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct [see my article entitled "Alf Field: Correction in Gold is OVER and On Way to $4,500+!" and I have settled on] a target price of $158.34 for silver. [Let me explain how I came to that specific price.]

So says Alf Field in edited excerpts from his original article*.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Field goes on to say, in part:

The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).

This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?

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Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.

Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.

The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.

It is evident from the above chart that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.

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How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%! This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver!

Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.

A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out…

*http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-what-about-silver-.aspx?article=3795923432G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Alf+Field&mk=1

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1. Silver Will Go to $50 and Then Explode Dramatically Higher! Here’s Why

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2. Goldrunner: Gold, Silver and HUI Index to Bounce Back to Major Highs by May 2012

With the present major correction in gold, silver and the mining sector it is important to look at the big picture and see what the charts are saying from a technical fractal relationship with what happened back in 1979 when the last truely major bull run occurred. To date the situation is, frankly, no different than it was back then unfolding just as it should. As a result we can expect MAJOR upward price action in physical gold and silver and in their mining (producers, developers, explorers and royalty streamers alike) in the next few months on their way to their respective parabolic peaks in the years ahead. Read on. Words: 1604

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4. Goldrunner: Gold, Silver and HUI Index to Bounce Back to Major Highs by May 2012

With the present major correction in gold, silver and the mining sector it is important to look at the big picture and see what the charts are saying from a technical fractal relationship with what happened back in 1979 when the last truely major bull run occurred. To date the situation is, frankly, no different than it was back then unfolding just as it should. As a result we can expect MAJOR upward price action in physical gold and silver and in their mining (producers, developers, explorers and royalty streamers alike) in the next few months on their way to their respective parabolic peaks in the years ahead. Read on. Words: 1604

5. What Do Gold Measurements “Troy” Ounce and “Karat” Really Mean?

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6. Silver: The Party Isn’t Over Yet

Investing is often a study of inconsistencies and contradictions. If it weren’t, the markets would be a simple game and there would no back and forth between buyers and sellers, greed and fear and technical analysts, fundamentalists and momentum players. Our experience with silver since the end of last year illustrates this [but] we [still] think it makes sense to get exposure to the metal. [Let us explain.] Words: 820

7.  History Says Silver Could Become the Next 10-Bagger Investment! Here’s Why

If you concur with the 159 analysts (see below) that maintain that physical gold is going to go parabolic in price in the next few years to $3,000, $5,000 or even $10,000 or more then you should seriously consider buying physical silver. Why? Because the historical gold:silver ratio is so way out of wack that silver should appreciate much more than gold as it goes parabolic in the years to come. Indeed, silver could easily reach $100 – $200 per troy ounce, maybe even $300 and conceivably in excess of $400 depending on how high gold goes. The aforementioned may be hard to believe but an analysis below of the historical price relationship between silver and gold suggests that such will most likely occur if gold does, indeed, go parabolic. Take a look. Words: 1423

The recent super-dovish FOMC statement of an extended period of low interest rates and possibly a full blown QE 3 replacing the current “light” version…raises inflation risks and so pressures the USD….[That being said, I p

So says Cliff Wachtel (www.globalmarkets.anyoption.com) edited excerpts from his original article*.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Wachtel goes on to say, in part:

GOOD Factors Affecting the USD

1. The Dovish Fed Policy

[The above mentioned] dovish Fed policy may actually aid the USD’s prospects especially if the economy performs relatively well and so reduces the liklihood of new stimilus coming. Indeed, the White House will be doing all it can to help the U.S. economy over the coming year. Moreover, as we note below, most other major central banks are also in easing mode so the USD may not look any worse than its fellow majors from this perspective.

Also, dovish Fed policy may not be as damaging to USD prices as it has been in prior years, because in 2012 the Fed is no longer alone among the major banks in attempting to expand the monetary supply. The ECB, PBOC, BoE, RBA and BoC among others have all followed the Fed towards more dovish policies.

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In other words, the continued dovishness of the Fed may not harm the USD’s relative position vs. the other major currencies at all.

2. Global Stagnation in Growth

If, as predicted by many, US growth is relatively good (though lower than previously hoped) compared to that of the rest of the developed world, then the coming year could be bullish for the USD.

Economic downturns favor safe haven currencies like the USD. This downturn may be particularly favorable for the greenback because the central banks behind the other two traditional safety currencies, the JPY and CHF, have become more aggressive in devaluing their currencies. This is especially true for the CHF, which over the past year went from being the most stable safe haven to being the most heavily managed one. The SNB remains committed to keeping the CHF down relative to the EUR.

Carry trading is when you sell of low yielding currencies to fund purchases of higher yielding currencies, and profit on the difference. For example, you buy the AUD/JPY, you buy the AUD which yields 4.5%/year, and sell or borrow the JPY pay out its 0.10% rate, profit on the rate differential as long as you hold the position. This works well as long as the JPY or other funding currency doesn’t gain value vs. the AUD or other currency that you bought. If it does, your interest rates gains can be wiped out fast.

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Carry trades work best in times of rising growth and interest rates that favor the higher yielding risk currencies, not during times of recession when safe haven currencies like the JPY or USD tend to appreciate and thus make carry trades unprofitable. In other words, times of stagnation mean reduced carry trade, and that’s another reason for increased demand for safety currencies like the USD.

3. The U.S. Election Year

President Obama’s approval ratings at the end of 2011 are well below what’s needed to win re-election and, as such, the quality of both the US economy’s performance and his opponent’s campaign will determine whether he can overcome his current standing.

We expect President Obama will, like any politician up for re-election, attempt as much stimulus as possible in order to have the voters feeling as optimistic as possible as they go to vote in November 2012. For this reason, stocks and other risk assets usually perform well in election years: 2008 was different because of the financial crisis, but over the past five decades, stocks have declined in only four out of the past 17 election years. Using the deutschmark as a rough proxy for the EUR, we have data on the EUR/USD from the 1970s to now, which covers nine election years. The currency pair weakened eight out of the nine years by an average of 6%. In other words, the dollar tends to perform well in election years. That alone is important for traders to keep in 2012.

 4. The Bleak Outlook for the EU

The ongoing crisis in the EU continues to keep markets nervous and thus ready to flee into the relative safety of the USD. It has better long term economic fundamentals than those of the JPY, and the CHF is now linked to the EUR. Together these factors make the USD the most attractive safe haven currency. Moreover, the EU crisis threatens to drive the EUR down further. As I’ve often noted in prior articles, because the USD and EUR are the most widely held currencies, they tend to push each other in opposite directions so further declines in the EUR are bullish for the USD.

BAD Factors Affecting the USD

Here are the factors that could pull the USD lower.

1. EU Crisis Stabilizes or Improves

Nothing in the past years suggests that it will be solved, but the EU leadership may yet again manage do muddle through. As noted above, a rising EUR virtually insures a falling USD. We don’t think this scenario is likely but it’s certainly possible.

2. US Politics Remains Unchanged

Even without the pressure to hand out goodies to voters that comes in an election year, Congress was been unable to make serious progress in reducing its deficit during 2011. Thus we risk further credit downgrades on the Federal, as well as state and local levels.

3. Fed Goes All In for QE 3

If the Fed really opens up the money taps relative to its fellow central banks, then that would be a double negative for the USD:

• It would drive down USD demand from the added future inflation risk.
• In addition, QE programs are considered good for risk assets like stocks and risk currencies, and bearish for safe haven currencies like the USD.

UGLY Factors Affecting the USD

The most likely ugly scenario is a wave of defaults in the EU. While many claim that a Greek default is priced in, we don’t buy that, as we apply the “no such thing as one cockroach” theory. By itself a Greek default isn’t a disaster. The problem is that it will drive borrowing costs for the other GIIPS out of range risks starting an avalanche of sovereign and/or bank defaults from the banks holding those bonds.

In that kind of panic scenario, the USD should do very well, at least in the short term. Beyond that there are too many factors to make a useful prediction. On one hand the USD is a safe haven asset that should benefit in crisis conditions. On the other hand that same crisis is likely to reach the US directly or indirectly and ultimately undermine the US economy and with It the USD.

A less likely but still quite possible black swan event is an escalation in tensions with Iran that could send energy prices soaring. In all but the scariest scenarios that’s likely to be bearish for the USD as energy prices spike. However that’s a separate topic for another article.

There has been a deluge of articles recently about the upticks in the housing data…[yet, while] I do not dispute the improvement in the data regarding home starts, permits, pending sales, etc.,… [see graph below] these data points are still mired at very depressed levels so the assumption is that if home building is stabilizing then it is only a function of time until home prices began to rise as well. Right? Not so fast.. [Let me explain.]

click to enlarge

The point I want to specifically address today is home prices. After the past few bloody years of price declines, and repeated calls of a housing bottom each year, 2012 proves to be no different with yet more calls for a bottom [- and] why shouldn’t there be? Home prices have declined, according to our NAR/Core Logic Composite Index…, by a whopping 36%. Interest rates are at their lowest levels ever and you can still get low down payment mortgage if you can qualify…[but]…

People Buy Payments – Not Houses

When the average American family sits down to discuss buying a house they do not discuss buying a $125,000 house…[but, rather,] what type of house they need (a three bedroom house with two baths, a two car garage, a yard, etc.) [and] that is the dream part. The reality of it smacks them in the face, however, when they start reconciling their monthly budget.

Here is a statement I have not heard discussed by the media. People do not buy houses – they buy a payment. The payment is ultimately what drives how much house they buy. Why is this important? Because it is all about interest rates.

Over the last 30 years a big driver of home prices has been the unabated decline of interest rates. When declining interest rates were combined with lax lending standards – home prices soared off the chart. No money down, ultra low interest rates and easy qualification gave individuals the ability to buy much more home for their money. The demand for home ownership, promulgated by the Fed, the finance and real estate industry, drove prices far beyond rational levels. Easy credit terms combined with a plethora of pshychological encouragement from home flipping and house decorating television to direct advertisment of the “dream of homeownership” enticed families to bite off way more than they could ever hope to chew.

In 1968 the average American family maintained a mortgage payment, as a percent of real disposable personal income (DPI), of about 7%. Back then, in order to buy a home, you were required to have skin in the game with a 20% downpayment. Today, assuming that an individual puts down 20% for a house, their mortgage payment would consume more than 15% of real DPI. In reality, since many of the mortgages done over the last decade required little or no money down, that number is actually substantially higher. You get the point. With real disposable incomes stagnant as inflationary pressures rise that 15% of the budget is becoming much harder to sustain.

The decline in home prices so far has largely been due to the intial process of the real estate bust and the deleveraging of the American household balance sheet. According to recent data as much as 2/3rds of the sales completed so far have been distressed in some form or fashion. However, the real potential for declines in price come when interest rates began to rise.

At some point in the future interest rates will begin to rise back towards the long term median of 8.9%. From the current 4% rate that is a substantial rise. However, before you guffaw the idea entirely, let me just remind you that 30-year interest rates were almost 7% in mid-2006. Therefore a rise to the long term median is not entirely out of the question – the only debate will be the timing and the trigger of the event.

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With this in mind let’s review how home buyers are affected. If we assume a stagnant purchase price of $125,000, as interest rates rise from 4% to 8%…, the cost of the monthly payment for that same priced house rises from $600 a month to more than $900 a month – a 50% increase. However, this is not just a solitary effect. Since home prices on the whole are affected by those actively willing to sell – the rise of interest rates lead to declines in home prices accross the board as sellers reduce prices to find buyers. Therefore, if the average American family living on $55,000 a year sees their monthly mortgage payment rise by 50% this is a VERY big issue…

See what I mean about interest rates? Since there are only a limited number of buyers in the pool at any given time the supply/demand curve is critcally affected by the variations in interest rates. This is why the Fed has been so adamant to suppress interest rates at very low levels and have injected trillions of dollars to acheive that goal. They understand the ramifications of rising interest rates, not only on home prices, but also on the $3 Trillion in debt they are currently carrying on their balance sheet.

There are basically two possible outcomes from here:

1. Ben Bernanke and gang artifically suppress interest rates for a very long period of time creating the “Japan Syndrome” in the U.S. which leads to rolling recessions and a general economic malaise or
2. interest rates rise back towards more normalized levels as the economy begins a real and lasting recovery.

I am really hoping for the latter. In either case there is a negative and sustained impact to housing going forward. The excesses that were created over the last 20 years will have to be absorbed into the system allowing prices to return to a more normalized and sustainable level.

Conclusion

[There is no doubt]…that home construction, sales, etc. can stabilize at these lower levels…[but] stabilization and a recovery, such as the media is currently hoping for, are two vastly different things. We are very early in the entire deleveraging process and until the excesses are removed from the system the real housing bottom may be more elusive than anyone expects.

*http://streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/646-why-home-prices-have-much-further-to-fall.html

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Related Articles:

1. American/Canadian Home Price Performance Comparisons by Major Cities

The following charts indicate relative performance of US home prices in Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Miami to Canadian home prices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal. US home prices are reflected in Canadian dollars for comparison purposes. Words: 240

2. Believe it or Not: Australia’s Housing Bubble is Worse Than That in the U.S.

The explosion of Australia’s mortgage debt is viewed by many economists and commentators as the key factor behind Australia’s unaffordable housing [and the primary] reason why Australia’s housing bubble is larger than that experienced in the United States in the mid-2000s. [Another factor is] the strangulation of fringe urban land supply via increasingly restrictive planning processes. [Let me substantiate that contention by comparing the two countries housing situation via a number of descriptive graphs. Words: 817

3. Unlike the U.S and U.K, Canada’s Home Prices Are STILL Rising!

Canada, France and Switzerland stood alone among nine markets measured in recording annual price gains, based on second-quarter data, with inflation-adjusted price increases of 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, compared to declines of 6% in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia, 10% in Spain and 14% in Ireland. In fact, Canada’s home prices have escalated 44% since 2005 – with a high of 68% in Vancouver – and they are up 7.7% in the past 12 months! Words: 1244

4. Forecast for House Prices is Horrific! Here’s Why

As bad as the housing crisis has been over the past three years, it has only been a warm up to what we have headed our way… [In fact,] the forecast is horrific, to say the least!28% of US homeowners already owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth [and]… 27% of American homeowners are considering walking away from their mortgage…This is going to significantly drive home prices further down. [Let's look at the details.] Words: 657

5. Housing Crash Continues: Why Now Is NOT The Time To Buy!

The housing crash is still in process and here are 10 reasons why it is still a terrible time to buy. Words: 1670

6. House Prices to Decline Further With Forthcoming Dramatic Increase in Foreclosures

If you think home prices have hit bottom and are now headed back up for good, think again! Round two is about to begin. Words: 552

7. Ever Increasing Foreclosures Mean Low House Prices for Many More Years

Anyone who sees a rising pool of millions of delinquent mortgages as the foundation of a recovery in housing valuations isn’t considering the feedback loop which is now firmly in place. The foreclosure pipeline will be full for years to come precluding any “recovery” in housing valuations as supply will swamp demand. Words: 385

8. U.S. Real Estate? Fuhgeddaboudit for Another 5 Years!

Real estate has definitely not bottomed in the U.S., and probably not anywhere else either. You have to take a long-term view of this. At this point in time I am completely uninterested in speculating in U.S. real estate – and I don’t foresee being interested for at least five years. I reserve the right to change my mind, but I think it’ll be at least five years. Words: 1340

 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Snyder goes on to say, in part:

If the government suddenly started spending only the money that it actually brought in every year, our economy would be doomed and all of this “false prosperity” would rapidly disappear… [but conversely,] if the U.S. government continues to rack up debt at this pace we are doomed. In fact, every dollar that gets borrowed makes our eventual collapse ever worse. We are heading down the exact same road that Greece has gone. Eventually the rest of the world is not going to lend us gigantic mountains of super cheap money anymore. When the flow of cheap money stops, it [will] be extremely painful…If we had addressed these problems as a nation a decade or two ago, perhaps we could have found a solution but now there is no way out under our current financial system and a devastating economic collapse is on the horizon no matter what we do.

Look at Greece. They were forced by the EU and the IMF to dramatically reduce government spending…[and] John Mauldin described the nightmarish effect that this had on the country…

As Greece began to shake and bake its way to “austerity,” the very act of cutting deficits pushed the country into recession, which lowered tax revenues and increased expenses, putting the elusive goal of a balanced budget even further off…Spain’s “draconian” cuts have [had much the same effects]…

For country after country, this is the Endgame. It is the end of the Debt Supercycle. Debt has grown to the size that it cannot be sustained. The market will not lend any more money on terms that can be afforded, and any efforts to cut spending and raise taxes will result in an even worse economy, in various degrees of recession, with falling revenues and rising costs.

The above is what happens when a country that has been spending far beyond its means is forced to dramatically cut back.

Those that are convinced that balancing the federal budget in the United States will be relatively painless should take a close look at what is happening in Greece. The Greek economy has been plunged into a 21st century “Great Depression”:

• 20% of all retail stores have already shut down,
• the unemployment rate for those under the age of 24 is 39% and
• 33% of the entire nation is living in poverty.

This is only just the beginning for Greece. Things are going to get even worse.

Unfortunately, many believe that the United States is destined to experience far worse pain than Greece is currently experiencing. Peter Schiff, for example, insists that the United States is in even worse financial shape than Europe at this point. Just check out this video….

Anyone that attempts to downplay the U.S. debt problem is making a serious mistake. Yes, we are still able to borrow trillions of dollars for next to nothing, but that is going to come to an end.

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Remember all of those “suckers” that signed up for mortgages at “teaser rates” that later got jacked up dramatically? Well, when the rates went up many of them ended up losing everything [and] we have gotten ourselves into the exact same kind of a position. All of this cheap money has enabled us to live very nicely for now, but when the cheap money ends the nightmare will begin.

Right now, our debt is growing much, much faster than our economy is. Between 2007 and 2010, U.S. GDP grew by only 4.26%, but the U.S. national debt soared by 61% during that period… but it is not just the federal government that has been living a fantasy.

The chart posted below shows the growth of total debt in America over the past several decades. Consumers, businesses and government officials have been on a debt binge that is absolutely unprecedented [but] the scary thing is that even with all of this borrowed money, our economy is still in the dumps so what in the world is it going to look like when the debt bubble totally bursts?

Even with all of this “borrowed prosperity”, anger at the government is rapidly growing. A recent Gallup poll found that “satisfaction with government” in the United States is now at an all-time record low of 29% so how angry will the American people be when all of this “borrowed prosperity” disappears?

When this whole thing comes tumbling down, a lot of people are going to blame our problems on “capitalism”. In fact, it is already happening. Just check out what the founder of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, is saying:

• We have a general morality gap.
• We are over-leveraged,
• we have neglected to invest in the future,
• we have undermined social coherence, and
• we are in danger of completely losing the confidence of future generations.
• We are in an era of profound change that urgently requires new ways of thinking instead of more business-as-usual.
• Capitalism in its current form, has no place in the world around us.

Capitalism is not the problem, however. Capitalism has produced the greatest eras of prosperity that the world has ever seen. No, the real problem is our debt-based financial system that is managed and run by the central banks of the world.

Debt-based central banking is not capitalism but, unfortunately, way too many people equate the two. [The truth of the matter is that,] theoretically, you could have capitalism without any debt whatsoever but what we have today is a financial system that has debt as the very foundation and such a system is inevitably going to fail someday.

As I have written about so many times before, the Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems here in the United States [because it] was designed to be a perpetual debt machine – and it has performed that task very well. The U.S. national debt is now more than 5000 times larger than it was when the Federal Reserve was first created.

Even though things [may] seem somewhat “stable” for the moment, there are all kinds of reasons to be concerned about the viability of our economy and our financial system in the years ahead… [In fact,] I believe a massive economic storm is coming [so] don’t let this false prosperity and this “calm before the storm” fool you.

We are living in the greatest debt bubble the world has ever seen, and no matter how it plays out there is going to be a massive amount of pain. You might want to get yourself and your family prepared for that.

*http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/if-the-u-s-government-keeps-spending-money-like-this-we-are-doomed-and-if-the-u-s-government-stops-spending-money-like-this-we-are-doomed

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Countries around the world, particularly in the West, are hopelessly in the red, with debt rising every day. Even worse, politicians seem paralyzed, unable — or unwilling — to do anything about it. It is a global disaster that threatens the immediate future… [Let me explain.] Words: 1132

2. 2012: More Money-printing Leading to Accelerating Inflation, Rising Interest Rates & Then U.S. Debt Crisis! Got Gold?

Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660

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The Fed is [going to] keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014 [and that] is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years. In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around…We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.

So says Stephen Leeb* (www.leeb.net) in edited excerpts from an interview he had recently with King World News entitled “Leeb – Fed Game Changer Sparks 2nd Leg of Gold & Silver Bulls” where it can be read in its entirety.

 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) the opening paragraph for the sake of clarity and brevity. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Related Postings:

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Short-term volatile moves in Gold, as we have seen over the past few months, do not affect our projections for the future price of Gold based on our fractal (pattern) “model” off the late 70′s Gold Bull. Just as we correctly projected the $1,920 high in our April article entitled Goldrunner: Gold on track to Reach $1860 to $,920 by Mid-year (gold reached $1,917.20 in late August and $1,923.70 in early September, 2011), our current analysis indicates that Gold will enter a range between $3,000 and $3,500 by mid-year 2012. Words: 975

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Why spend time surfing the internet looking for informative and well-written articles on the health of the economies of the U.S., Canada and Europe; the development and implications of the world’s financial crisis and the various investment opportunities that present themselves related to commodities (gold and silver in particular) and the stock market when we do it for you. We assess hundreds of articles every day, identify the best and then post edited excerpts of them to provide you with a fast and easy read.

Sign-up for Automatic Receipt of Articles in your Inbox or via FACEBOOK | and/or TWITTER so as not to miss any of the best financial articles on the internet edited for clarity and brevity to ensure you a fast an easy read.

*Dr. Stephen Leeb: Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management and the author of “Red Alert: How China’s Growing Prosperity Threatens the American Way of Life” which has just released and can be ordered from Amazon CLICK HERE.

Dr. Stephen Leeb: Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management and the author of “Red Alert: How China’s Growing Prosperity Threatens the American Way of Life” Just released, to order from Amazon CLICK HERE.