The GDX has declined 17% during the past 3 months (3.5% in the past month) and continues to decline day after day. It has smashed through the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average. Nevertheless, given all the enthusiasm for the future price of gold (and silver) might this well be the time to hold one’s nose and buy in before it makes its expected move that would turn the present stench into that of perfume?
Forecasts are only a guide or a potential road-map as no one can predict the future but we can assess risk, reward and probabilities. [Given that,] we think that the current probabilities favor a secondary bottom in gold stocks and that, very soon, the risk/reward dynamic will be heavily in favor of longs. [I explain and illustrate my conclusions below.] Words: 484; Charts: 2; Tables: 1
What is developing in the markets is not the beginning of another leg down in gold, but a second chance to get positioned for what should be a very profitable intermediate degree rally over the next 2-3 months. [Let me explain further with a number of charts to support my position.] Words: 460
The prospects look great for Gold and Silver to move sharply higher into 2013 to mimic the moves made in the 2005/ 2006 period and especially in 1979. In both cases back then the PM Stock Indices made big runs along with Gold and Silver. As such, the current HUI looks good for a major bottom to now be in place and to mimic the PM Stock Surrogate chart from the late 70’s. This would see the HUI go as high as the 1000 area in 2013. Let me explain further. Words: 640
For the past eighteen months, gold stocks have been pummeled…What’s going to move these darn stocks? Will their day ever come? Could our research – gulp – be wrong? Jokes have even started circulating…[such as] a) What’s the difference between a seagull and a gold stock investor? The seagull can still make a deposit on a Mercedes. b) Gold equities may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried. Laugh or cry, however, underneath this heap of stock-certificate debris is the contrarian opportunity of a lifetime. That’s a strong statement, I know, but below I present numerous well-researched reasons why I’m convinced gold stocks are one spark away from igniting the portfolios of those with the cash to buy, courage to act, and patience to hold. Words: 2800
We’ve been surprised at the recent action in the precious metals complex. During the recent correction the shares were showing quite a bit more strength than the metals. Then the shares took a dive below support yet the metals maintained their recent lows! How do we interpret this wild volatility in the relationship between the shares and the metals? Quite often we look at daily and weekly charts. Now is the time to take a look at the monthly charts which can help us get a better read on the larger trends at hand. Words: 636
The best way to look at miners, in relation to gold, is to look at the relative strength of each which is most clearly illustrated through ratio analysis. Whether you are a fundamental or technical analyst, both schools of thought support the notion of investing in sectors that exhibit positive relative strength. For those unfamiliar, the idea is that relative strength tends to persist over time and that it is often best to invest in securities that exhibit positive relative strength. [So what does relative strength analysis suggest is the appropriate course of action these days? Let’s take a look.] Words: 805
You have probably read in multiple articles that mining stocks offer leverage to the movement of the underlying metal. This hasn’t been the case over the past several years, however, which has created some confusion in the precious metals investment community. While the gold price has more than doubled (+110%) in the past five years, the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is up only 15% so why do people keep saying that mining stocks offer leverage? Well, because they do during certain periods of the bull market. [Let me explain the situation more fully and exactly where we are in the current bull market.] Words: 677
Gold & silver have pulled back over the past two weeks after both faced strong resistance from the upper horizontal line of their respective trading ranges [and continue to flucuate within their] 12-month Trading Ranges of $1,540 – $1,800 and $26.50 – $36 respectively. HUI and XAU levels have pulled back and are testing the lower boundary of their rising wedges [but look likely to move upwards within their respective wedges (530 – 570 for the HUI and 200 – 215 for the XAU) before moving higher]. Check out my technical analysis below for details.