Wednesday , 13 November 2019


These 148 “Analysts” Prove That Gold Price Forecasts Are Just Wishful Thinking

A few years back I published an article that itemized what 148 supposed experts of the day were predicting for the future price of gold and as it turns out none of them – not one – knew what they were talking about. By trying to do so they were all playing a fool’s game, a game reserved for the brave but foolhardy.

By Lorimer Wilson

In fact, as published in that seminal article (see here):

  • All 148 projected that gold would eventually exceed $2,500/ozt.,
  • 100 forecast gold reaching at least $5,000/ozt.,
  • 17 predicted a parabolic peak price of as much as $10,000 per troy ounce and
  • 12 are on record as saying gold could go even higher than that.

Visit the article and you will recognize dozens of “analysts” who are STILL ardent cheerleaders for gold. It’s easy to conclude from that article (and the more recent “guesses” as itemized at the bottom of the article) that:

  1. What appears to be a reasoned forecast from a reputable source is often little more than a guess, or perhaps wishful thinking.
  2. Forecasting the price of anything amounts to predicting the future and no one can actually predict the future, much as they might wish to or believe they can.
  3. If you really could predict the future, including the gold price, why would you work for an employer? Indeed, you could simply work for yourself and make endless amounts of money.
  4. Chart analysis is supposed to provide insight into the future but while charting is excellent for telling you where prices have been, it will not tell you where prices are going. Indeed, if a particular charting technique really did work we would all know about it by now and know what future gold prices would be.

Conclusion

Forecasting is for the brave but foolhardy and we have no shortages of fools to go around!

Most Recent Guesses

1. $4,000-$8,000 Gold & Some 10-Bagger Gold Stock Returns Expected By 2025

It is safe to say that the upside potential is significant in both gold and gold mining stocks over the next few years. Here’s why.

2. More of the Same: Gold Will Go To $3,000 – $5,000/ozt Over Next Few Years

Based on the facts we have today, I believe that the long wave in gold will take it up to between $3,000 and $5,000 per troy ounce over the next few years.

3. The Road To $10,000 Gold: What Could Unfold Over the Next Few Years

My long-standing target for gold of $10,000 in today’s money and much, much higher in inflationary terms, is now more probable than ever but I hope it will never be achieved. When gold goes to $10,000, It will not just reflect inflation and falling currencies like in the 1970s but a much more serious or even catastrophic situation both in the U.S. and globally so let’s look at a potential scenario for the next few years. This is obviously not a forecast but more of a rough sketch of what could happen:

4. Gold: $3,000 – $5,000 Possible By 2020 – 2022, If Not Sooner. Here’s Why (+3K Views)

The future price of gold is very much dependent upon the reactions of governments and central banks regarding the current deflationary forces. $3,000 – $5,000 per ounce is quite possible at some time in 2020 – 2022, if not sooner.

5. New All Time Record Highs For Gold & Silver Coming In 2019 (+2K Reads)

Gold is gaining momentum after a 5-year consolidation and is set to challenge the 2011 highs some time next year. Once gold clears $2,000, a powerful bull market should drive the gold price meaningfully higher.

6. Gold Going Parabolic In Next Few Years – Here’s Why (+5K Views)

We are now starting the hyper-inflationary phase in the USA and many other countries as a result of the accelerated fall of the U.S. dollar and this will be reflected in the parabolic rise in the price of gold over the next few years.

7. Gold Will Reach $2,500/ozt In the Near Future – and $10,000 Thereafter (+7K Views)

After two years of declines, many investors sold their gold holdings and vowed never to invest in gold again. However, in the fall of 1976, gold began an ascent that saw it rise 750%, peaking at $850 a troy ounce three years and four months later. After a 3-year correction, the same opportunity to buy low exists today, just as it did in 1976.

8. Today’s Financial Entertainment: Gold Going to $10,000; Silver to $500! Here’s Why (+3K Views)

The consequences of the total economic mismanagement by world governments and central banks for the last hundred years will eventually result in my forecast of $10,000 gold and $500 silver being fulfilled.

9. Gold & Silver Cheerleading Knows No Bounds!

Optimism, hype, wishful thinking, hope – call it what you will (unabashed cheerleading?) – abounds regarding the future for the price of both gold and silver. Below are just a few such views.

10. Only Fools Base Investment Decisions On Pundit Predictions! Here’s Why

Nobody can predict what the stock market will do so basing your investment decision on market or economic predictions is a fool’s game.