Is gold still cheap? No, gold left bargain territory long ago [but] we remain bullish on gold, not because we think gold is still cheap, but because we expect it to get a lot more expensive. [Why?] Because the world’s most important central banks and governments remain committed to a course that ends in catastrophe for their economies and currencies. [Let me explain further.] Words: 565
So says Steve Saville (www.speculative-investor.com) in edited excerpts from an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Saville goes on to say, in part:[To express it another way,] gold may well be expensive relative to the current economic backdrop but it is cheap relative to what the economic backdrop will be 5 years from now if the current policy course is maintained – and at this stage, there are no signs that the current policy course will not be maintained.
Evidence that gold is no longer in the bargain basement is provided by the following long-term monthly chart of the gold/commodity ratio. Relative to commodities in general, gold hit a 50-year high (perhaps an all-time high] late last year…This tells us that the gold market has fully discounted the bad policies of the past several years…
Evidence that the gold market hasn’t yet discounted the effects of continuing along the current policy path is the general lack of understanding of the damage that these policies cause. Almost everyone in power, or in a position to influence those in power, believes that the economy can be helped by:
- the artificial lowering of interest rates,
- the creation of money out of nothing, and
- increased government spending.
In addition, almost everyone believes that the government is responsible for:
- creating jobs and
- managing the international trade balance.
This means that almost everyone is oblivious to the fact that:
- whenever the government intervenes in the economy it causes distortions that impede real economic progress [and that]
- as long [as] such beliefs are dominant, economic weakness will lead to counterproductive policy responses, which will lead to additional economic weakness, and so on.
The gold bull market is being driven by the vicious cycle whereby bad policy begets economic weakness, which provides the excuse for more bad policy. It won’t end until:
- there is an economic and monetary catastrophe or
- there is widespread understanding of the root of the problem,
because one or the other will have to happen before a major constructive political change will be possible. Hopefully the latter will happen first, because living through the former wouldn’t be fun even for those who had taken all the right protective measures.
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There would be many indicators [along the way telling us] that widespread understanding of the root of the problem was developing, and, therefore, that the gold bull market was in its final phase, namely:
- the Fed would be demonstrating the resolve to severely restrict growth in the money supply regardless of the short-term consequences for equity prices and GDP growth,
- politicians that were genuine advocates of small government (along Ron Paul lines) would be taken seriously by the mainstream media and would be frontrunners in elections, whereas advocates of Keynesian economic policies (along Paul Krugman lines) would not be taken seriously.
* http://www.safehaven.com/article/25170/is-gold-still-cheap (To access the article please copy the URL and paste it into your browser.)
Editor’s Note: The above article has been has edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Lately analyst after analyst (161 at last count) has been climbing on board the golden wagon with prognostications as to what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 51 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 644
That governments will want – and will NEED – much, much higher gold and silver prices in the future is counter intuitive, given that they have done everything within their power to throttle back and to keep a lid on bullion prices. Let me explain why. Words: 1300
153 analysts maintain that gold could eventually reach a parabolic peak price of at least $3,000/ozt. before the bubble bursts of which 103 see gold reaching at least $5,000/ozt., 17 predict a parabolic peak price of as much as $10,000 per troy ounce and a further 13 are on record as saying gold could go even higher than that. Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 844
Nick Laird has put together an Elliott Wave theory prediction using ‘The Golden Mean’ & ‘Fibonacci Sequences’ to arrive at future prices for gold…which he is hopeful will serve as ‘a roadmap which gold may take as it climbs to new highs’. See the chart below. Words: 625
We are all focused on the short-term and that’s natural, but let’s step back and look at the longer-term picture…We know the debt levels are too high today…but, because less than 1% of world financial assets are in gold, we have yet to really see the gold market react to the massive global money printing binge of the last 10 years. Once the gold market starts reacting to all of this, that’s when gold is going to go exponential. It doesn’t matter whether investors are buying gold at $1,600 or $1,800, it’s irrelevant in the long-run. What’s important is they are invested in physical gold in order to preserve their wealth. [Let me explain why.]
In my opinion, there are three scenarios that could occur in the coming years when analyzing the global economy – and all three have the potential to offer bullish environments for the price of gold. [Let me explain the first and most likely reason.] Words: 660
There is a strong probability that the correction in the price of gold [down to $1,523] has been completed. The up move just starting should be…the longest and strongest portion of the bull market…at least a 200% gain… [to] a price over $4,500. The largest corrections on the way to this target, of which there should be two, should be in the 12% to 14% range. [Let me explain how I came to the above conclusions.] Words: 760
When considering that the conditions which propelled gold and silver to their 1980 highs are much worse today, I predict both metals will easily eclipse those previous highs. That means $2,500 gold and $150 silver at the very minimum, but more likely a parabolic ascent to $8,890 gold and $517 silver before all is said and done. Words: 1063
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The current volatility in the precious metals market doesn’t necessarily indicate a change in secular direction. [In fact,] if today’s gold price was to rise by the same degree over the next 14 months [as it did from the beginning of 1979 into 1980, it would hit $4294/ozt. by Jan 2013! Let me explain.] Words: 420
Gold is operating on a smaller Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Cycle that is in synch with the larger Contracting Fibonacci Spiral the markets are in. Adding together the sum of parts… the price of gold will move up in price in 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020, with each subsequent leg moving less in percentage terms than the prior move. Gold advanced 4 foldish from 1999 until 2008 ($252/ounce to $1046/ounce) suggesting that gold should top out below $4000/troy ounce by the end of January, 2013…[on its way] to $7,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce by 2020. [Let me explain.] Words: 834
This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767
From questions whether gold is in a bubble to predictions that soaring prices are just around the corner, one thing is clear: a new phase of awareness for gold is upon us. How far might it move before these troubling times are over? [Let’s take a close look at a variety of factors and scenarios before coming to a conclusion.] Words: 5717
I believe that the price of gold will… reach… $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 [per troy] ounce…during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it…[although] prices will remain extremely volatile – with big swings both up and down along a rising trend…The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, demographic, and political developments [and in this article] I review some of these developments and trends – so that you can come to your own “golden” conclusions. Words: 3800
Short-term volatile moves in Gold, as we have seen over the past few months, do not affect our projections for the future price of Gold based on our fractal (pattern) “model” off the late 70′s Gold Bull. Just as we correctly projected the $1,920 high in our April article entitled Goldrunner: Gold on track to Reach $1860 to $,920 by Mid-year (gold reached $1,917.20 in late August and $1,923.70 in early September, 2011), our current analysis indicates that Gold will enter a range between $3,000 and $3,500 by mid-year 2012. Words: 975