Friday , 22 September 2017


History Suggests Dow Has Only 4% More To Go Before Correcting

From a long-term, 30,000 foot view, the Dow is just a “pinch away” from a series ofstockmarket resistance lines, ranging from 13 years to 31 years, that have marked important emotional highs & lows in the past suggesting that once the Dow reaches 16,000 or so it will correct.

So writes Chris Kimble (http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com) in edited excerpts from his original post* entitled Dow is 4% away from these 13 to 30-year resistance lines!.
[The following article is presented by  Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Kimble goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

A series of long-term resistance lines, ranging from 13 years to 31 years, drawn off of the Monthly closing prices of the 1982 low, 1987 high, 2002 & 2003 low and 2011 high, meet at one price point at (1) in the chart below. You will notice in the inset chart that last month the Dow touched one of these lines and stopped on a dime.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

These resistance lines intersect around the 16,000 level, about 4% above current prices.

[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2013/06/dow-is-4-away-from-these-13-to-30-year-resistance-lines/

You might also like some of the following 30 “market forecast” articles:

  • 18 Pessimistic Articles & 12 Optimistic Articles to Choose From! 

Pessimistic Articles:

1. Here’s How to Crash-Proof Your Portfolio

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With the stock market seemingly reaching new highs every day, should we worry about a crash that puts an end to the party? If so, how should investors prepare? Let us explain. Read More »

2. What Does Stock Market Valuation Multiple Suggests for Future of S&P 500?

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“The end is near” has been the bears’ dire prediction since the start of the bull market on March 9, 2009. This year’s rally to new record highs suggests that the bears have lost their credibility and that investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the end is actually still far off. Read More »

3. Wall Street Claims Secular Bear Market in US Stocks Is Over – Is It Justified?

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Two charts today, both from Goldman Sachs, focusi on US equity valuations and suggest that the secular bear market in US stocks is over. Are we really experiencing an historical anomaly that falls into a “this time is different” narrative or is the current secular bear market not over just yet? Read More »

4. It’s Time to Apply the “Greater Fool Theory” and Sell Your Winners to All Those Fools

The Dow has surpassed its all-time record high – set in October 2007 – and the S&P 500 is not far behind? Is this the early stage of another great bull market? Let’s look back at the two previous times when the S&P 500 set new all-time highs and see if we can learn something. Wait…first put your “this time it’s different” glasses on. OK, let’s go. Words: 430; Charts: 1

5. Don’t Ignore This Fact: “Greedometer Gauge” Signals S&P 500 Drop to the 500s by July-August, 2013!

The S&P500 is likely to achieve a secular (long term) peak this month, then drop to the 500s by July-August 2013. This article explains why. Words: 180

6. This Metric Strongly Suggests a Major Correction in the S&P 500 Could Be Coming

History shows that when investors experience a rapid decline in the amount of available cash in their brokerage account to spend/invest quickly such “negative net worth” leads to major corrections in the stock market. Currently such is the case so can we expect another such decline or will it be different this time?

7. Watch Out For Falling Stocks! Here’s Why

The stock markets make no sense. They have literally lost touch with reality. Divergences between fundamentals, confidence and the valuation of markets are large [and, as such,] cannot last for long….The only  question is how…and how quickly….this correction occurs. Words: 261

8. S&P 500′s PEG Ratio Suggests Overvaluation & Coming Correction

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The S&P 500 index is trading at record high levels and optimism remains high with Barron’s professional money manager survey indicating a record 74% money managers being bullish on markets even at current levels. [When one] measures valuations with respect to expected growth, [however, the ensuing ratio, the PEG ratio,] suggests overvaluation at these levels. [Let me explain further.] Words: 254; Charts: 1 Read More »

9. Can S&P 500 Justify Current Level With Earnings Growth So Weak?

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The S&P 500 is trading at near record high levels on the back of liquidity glut in the financial system. I mention the liquidity factor because all other fundamental factors do not support current levels and valuations. Read More »

10. You Need to Stay in the Stock Market Despite an Impending Economic Collapse – Here’s Why

You need to stay in markets despite an impending economic collapse. [Really?! Yes, really.] Normally such an expectation would be addressed by getting out of the way of the oncoming disaster and taking ones chips off the table [but,] in this situation, there is no place to hide. Low-risk assets, like bonds and near-cash, produce little to no return…and the threat of rising interest rates and inflation make them dangerous.  Higher risk assets are unavoidable, given current conditions. [Let me explain further.] Words: 830

11. You Can Insure Your Portfolio From Potential Capital Loss – Here’s How

Most everything you’ve heard about investing from the mainstream media, your mutual fund advisor and your tax accountant is a lie. You’ve been told…that the entire point of portfolio diversification is to mitigate downside risk yet when the market experiences the inevitable decline, every sector pushes significantly lower – and your “diversified” portfolio suffers as a result, [right? Well, there IS a better way.] Hear me out. Words: 895

12. The U.S. Stock Market Is Overvalued By More Than 50%! Here’s Why

Key stock indices are becoming significantly overpriced. The value of the U.S. stock market stands at about 133% of GDP. The average for the past 60 years has been around 82%. By this measure, the U.S. stock market is overvalued by more than 50%! Words: 398

13. Stop! Don’t Forget Market Risk – Remember What Happened in 2000 & 2007/8.

Investors are more bullish now than at any time since 2002 but the current rally has not been fueled by improved prospects of actual growth and wealth creation. Instead, it’s mostly due to:

  1. investors desperate for income denied them elsewhere by central bank policies;
  2. printed stimulus cash seeking a home and
  3. sheer technical momentum

but nowhere do they seem to be considering market risk – the risk that your investment will lose value because it gets dragged down in a falling market. Words: 615

14. Ignore Wall Street Cheerleaders: Market Technicals, Fundamentals & Other Info Says Otherwise!

[In spite of what] the typical Wall Street cheerleaders, I mean strategists, are predicting, we see the equity market ever more closer to its cyclical top, miners about to retest a major bottom and hard assets with a new catalyst. [This article analyzes 9 pieces of information, complete with charts, that show what is actually going on in the marketplace at this point in time and what the short-term future holds.] Words: 930; Charts: 8

15. 5 Sound Reasons Investors Would Be Better Off On the Sidelines Than In the Market

New year festivities have continued on the stock market even as the Christmas trees have been put away. The “death of the fiscal cliff,” not horrible job numbers and supportive comments from Mario Draghi on the other side of the pond have led to bold and bullish behaviors over the last three weeks. While no one can predict the exact peak, here are five reasons you’re better off on the sidelines than in the market.

16. These Charts Suggest a Possible +/-60% Decline in the S&P 500 by 2014

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has developed a chart showing the past two cycles in the S&P 500 highlighting peak and trough valuations. At face value it is very alarming as it suggests a potential decline of somewhere in the vicinity of 60% over the next year or two and concurs with previous innovative trend analyses included in this article. Charts: 4

17. Current Market Overvaluation (from 33% – 51%!) Suggests Cautious Long-term Outlook

Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, [my analyses indicate that] the  market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 33% to 51%,  depending on which of 4  indicators I used. This is an increase over the previous month’s 31% to 48% range. [Let me explain the details.] Words: 475

18. Goldman Sachs’ Leading Indicators Signal Steep Market Crash Ahead

Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and…is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250

More Optimistic Articles:

1. Easy Money Is To Be Had: Buy the DOW – Now!

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When the momentum is “UP”, and strongly “UP”, it is like a freight train, roaring down the tracks. It is hard to stop and hard to derail. Buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You can buy an ETF, or a future, or a Mini, but whatever your instrument of choice, the obvious should not be ignored. Easy money is waiting for you. Read More »

2. Stock Market Could Enjoy Many More Years of Big Gains! Here’s Why

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It’s hard to believe there is more upside left in the stock market considering this year’s rally…[yet, while] the indices may be wildly overbought in the near term, …stocks could have a few more years of big gains ahead. Read More »

3. The Stock Market: There’s NOTHING to Be Bearish About – Take a Look

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There’s nothing to be bearish about regarding the stock market these days. I’ve reviewed my 9 point “Bear  Market Checklist” of indicators and it is a perfect 0-for-9. Not even one indicator on the list is even close to flashing a warning sign so pop a pill  and relax. There’s no immediate danger threatening stocks. Read More »

4. Relax ! Stocks Are In NO Immediate Danger – Here’s Why

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Right now there’s nothing to be bearish about. I say  that with conviction, because my “Bear  Market Checklist” is a perfect 0-for-9. Heck, not a single  indicator on the list is even close to flashing a  warning sign. We’ve got nothing but big whiffers! Take a look. Pop a pill  and relax. There’s no immediate danger threatening stocks. Read More »

5. Latest Action Suggests Stock Market Beginning a New Long-term Bull Market – Here’s Why

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There are several fundamental reasons to believe that this week’s stock market activity, where the S&P 500 has moved more than 4% above the 13-year trading range defined by the 2000 and 2007 highs, could mark the beginning of a long-term bull market and the end of the range-bound trading that has lasted for 13 years. Read More »

6. Stocks Are NOT In Another Bubble – Here’s Why

U.S. stocks are off to one of their best starts in years. Most indices are up 10% year to date, prompting many investors to ask: “Are we in another bubble?” The answer is no, at least when it comes to equities. Here are three reasons why:

7. Research Says Stock Market Bull Should Continue Its Run Until…

The mainstream financial press would like us to believe that because the S&P 500 and Dow 30 are at or near their record highs that it must mean we’re nearing the end of the current bull market and, as such, now must be a terrible time to buy stocks. Let’s not  jump to any conclusions, though. Instead, let’s do our own due diligence to find out. Hint:  If you’ve been stuffing cash under the mattress since the last market crash,  you might want to finally go deposit it in your brokerage account. Here’s why… Words: 420

8. Can Photos of 35 Swimsuit Models Be Wrong? Lastest “Swimsuit Issue Indicator” Suggests An UP Year for S&P 500!

The Swimsuit Issue Indicator says that U.S. equity markets perform better in years when an American appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated’s annual issue as opposed to years when a non-American appears on the cover. [What is the nationality of this year’s cover model? Can we expect returns above the norm or will we see a year of underperformance for the S&P 500 this year? Read on.] Words: 323 ; Table: 1

9. Bull Market in Stocks Isn’t About to End Anytime Soon! Here’s Why

As we all know, money printing always leads to inflation. It’s just a matter of figuring out which assets get inflated. This time around gold is not the only beneficiary, stocks are, too, and I’m convinced that the chart below holds the key to the end of the bull market. Words: 475; Charts: 1

10. QE Could Drive S&P 500 UP 25% in 2013 & UP Another 28% in 2014 – Here’s Why

Ever since the Dow broke the 14,000 mark and the S&P broke the 1,500 mark, even in the face of a shrinking GDP print, a lot of investors and commentators have been anxious. Some are proclaiming a rocket ride to the moon as bond money now rotates into stocks….[while] others are ringing the warning bell that this may be the beginning of the end, and a correction is likely coming. I find it a bit surprising, however, that no one is talking of the single largest driver for stocks in the past 4 years – massive monetary base expansion by the Fed. (This article does just that and concludes that the S&P 500 could well see a year end number of 1872 (+25%) and, realistically, another 28% increase in 2014 to 2387 which would represent a 60% increase from today’s level.) Words: 600; Charts: 3

11. 5 Reasons To Be Positive On Equities

For the month of January, U.S. stocks experienced the best month in more than two decades [and the Dow hit 14,009 on Feb. 1st for the first time since 2007]. Per the Stock Traders’ Almanac market indicator, the “January Barometer,” the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the first month of the year dictates where stock prices will head for the year. Let’s hope so…. [This article identifies f more solid reasons why equities should do well in 2013.] Words: 453

12. Investors, Get Fully Invested! S&P 500 On Verge of Entering Euphoria Stage of Cyclical Bull Market

[In spite of all that is seemingly wrong with the U.S. economy] I think we are on the verge of entering the euphoria stage of this cyclical bull market where traders become convinced that QE3 is a magic elexir with no unintended consequesnces. [As such,] I see a strong acceleration and a significant and sustained breakout above the S&P 500 September high of 1475. (Words: 264 + 3 charts)