On the surface, policy settings around the world look very inflationary with large fiscal deficits and aggressively easy monetary policies yet it is hard to see inflation gaining any traction [with] global activity so weak and the monetary transmission process so impaired in many countries. There is more of a deflationary than inflationary tone to the economic environment and it does not look as if this will change any time soon.
So says a report* from BCA Research (http://bcaresearch.com) entitled No Inflation Threat In 2013.
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The article goes on to say in further edited excerpts:[As can be seen in the charts below] global traded goods prices are falling, wages are growing very slowly in the major economies and monetary growth is moderate. faster economic growth is a pre-condition for a sustained major inflation problem, but an improved economy will trigger a tightening in policy. It would be a mistake to think that the current generation of central bankers believes that sustained high inflation would be a desirable solution to current debt levels.
Inflation will remain broadly benign in 2013.
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
*http://blog.bcaresearch.com/no-inflation-threat-in-2013 (Copyright © 2013 · BCA Research · All Rights Reserved; We support blogging as a community and therefore contents of this blog may be reproduced or republished online on the condition that full attribution is provided and at least one (1) hyperlink back to the original blog post or http://bcaresearch.com is included in the body of any republished content.)
Don’t get too worked up over interest on the national debt or what will happen when interest rates rise because, by then, we’ll likely be talking about ways to cool down the economy. [Why?] Because interest rates on US government debt are really a function of economic growth. If the economy is weak the Fed will pin short rates to stimulate the economy and if rates rise it’s going to be a function of better days ahead. Words: 525
I have been reading a lot lately about the coming hyperinflation in America… [and while] I respect many of the writers [who express that opinion] I think they are jumping the gun. At this point none of the economic or political factors required to set off hyperinflation are present – and a careful analysis of theory, fact, and history leads me to conclude that inflation/stagflation is our future. It is quite a leap of fancy to say we are certain to have hyperinflation. Words: 2780
A look at the trend in prices of the Big Mac clearly shows that investors are being penalized with higher inflation, lower income from bonds and certificates of deposit and being led to believe that the economy is growing better than it really is. [Let me explain.] Words: 1012; Charts: 2
The public’s estimates and predictions of inflation are significantly, and systematically, related to the demographic characteristics of the respondents…[and] even after we hold constant income, age, education, race, and marital status…women in our survey tended to think inflation was 1.9 percentage points higher than men. [There are more interesting findings, so read on.] Words: 987
All in all, deflation should be one of the most serious words in a commodity investor’s vocabulary and is something to always keep an eye on. While its presence may seem removed from our economy, the possibility always remains and preparation will be key to survive a deflationary environment.
Many investors are treating inflation as a certainty because the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to unheard of levels through its quantitative easing strategy. Some have even gone so far as to say that this program will utterly destroy the U.S. currency. To demystify this conclusion, I’m going to explain quantitative easing and why the Fed is using this monetary strategy. Afterward, I’ll explain why gold is still positioned to rise even if inflation continues to be low. Words: 786