Thursday , 24 August 2017


Goldrunner: Gold Complex So Underpriced Reward Is VERY High & Risk Is VERY Low

A more aggressive devaluation of paper currencies is on the horizon thus the whole PM Complex is completely underpriced. Averaging in from this point on seems warranted. Below is a full explanation as to why that is the case.

So says Goldrunner (www.goldrunnerfractalanalysis.com) in edited excerpts from his most recent newsletter* to subscribers posted here with permission. Go here to subscribe and receive his unique analyses with one-of-a-kind charting.

[The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com  and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Goldrunner goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

 What has really changed? 

The Fed is still printing Dollars via QE with the world still shunning Dollars.  Thus, Dollar supply is rising while Dollar demand is falling.  This is very Gold friendly, in fact, it is what creates big Bull Gold Markets.  There is no real way that this relationship can change with the economy mired in a stagflation depression.  Massive debts must come off of the world-wide books before anything changes.  The options remain for us to see outright deflation to reduce the debts, or for the Fed and other Central Banks to continue [to] devalue the paper currencies to devalue the debts. [Read: Governments Will Want – Will NEED – Much Higher Gold Prices! Here’s Why and Central Bank Gold Purchases up 17% – Here’s Why You Should Jump in or Top Up Too]

The bottoming action last week looks good with the PM Stocks leading the way, yet we could see a lot of volatility before a large move up; or, we could still see a bit lower lows.  Shorts come in to cover in spurts unless they have a major reason to aggressively cover, putting in a “V-shaped bottom.”  Thus, the probabilities are that we will have some testing and filling before the PM Complex rips back up, or some kind of failure wave down, first.

What really happened?

It…looks like this whole “paper” charade was sparked by Europe’s failure to move to more aggressive Euro QE printing.  The Fed’s Banks have full control over Gold via the paper gold futures market so they shorted and traded Gold sideways as the GS boyz [Goldman Sachs boys]converged on Europe to try to sell the QE way.  After reaching the log channel bottom in Gold, they elected to take Gold down via paper gold rather than to risk Gold going into free-rise, prematurely.  All of this price movement in Gold allowed the Funds to short the PM Stocks with no risk so they hammered them lower.  We know through JS [Jim Sinclair] that the Fed Banks tipped off the Funds that they were going to hammer paper gold several months, ago, but the odds are that they have been “tipping” the large funds most of the way.

With the PM Stocks under pressure to fund new projects before Gold rips higher, many PM companies did big private placements of shares to large funds.  In some cases these Funds covered shorts, but I suspect many of these transactions were set-up [to] facilitate further shorting of PM Stocks.  A fund comes in to take a large position in a PM company, telling the company that they do NOT want it hedging its exposure to Gold or to Silver- that they want exposure to the upside in Gold.  Then the Fund sells leveraged call options against the shares at higher prices, or buys leveraged puts.  They benefit from leverage on the downside, and then cover their leveraged bets with huge profits, holding the original stock to benefit on the upside once they cover.  This was probably what we saw last week- leveraged downside looking to start to cover.  If the covering continues unabated, then we could see a V-shaped bottom in the making- but a few days doesn’t mean much, yet. 

We have recently been noting the huge divergence on the charts with the RSI not confirming the moves lower in PM Pricing.  This looks like a sign of a major bottom set-up, but the divergences can take some time to play out.

Where do we go from here?

The price movements in the PM Stock Indices look…[to be] forming a huge A, B, C correction that had gone to new highs.  This is really strange looking on the charts, but does mimic what we saw in 2001 and in 2004/ 2005, minus the new high.  A huge A, B, C on the charts, here, would look to give way to a true Wave III on the upside; rejiggered via this paper gold attack by the Fed and its banks.  If so, then we would look for the coming Wave III to trade similarly to the 3rd wave upside we saw in 2002 and 2005/ 2006.  Both were parabolic rises after the bottom was in.  This is probably a “characteristic of Fed pleasure” that is unique to the current environment of K-Winter price management this time around.

[I am]…familiar with the 3rd wave design from 2002 and 2005/ 2006 for the PM Stocks since I had used 2002 to lay out the price movements for the HUI in 2005/ 2006 before they happened.  This week I will go through the charts to see what looks interesting.  The bottom line is that the bottom may, or may not, be “in” at this time.  If we trade like the similar A, B, C correction bottoms in the PM Stocks that I have mentioned, above, then we would probably trade a bit lower.  That is, unless something spooks the shorts to cover faster.

In Review

  • What looked like a perfectly good 3rd wave move on the charts for the PM Stocks, now looks to have been re-engineered via paper gold and shorting into an A, B, C correction off the 2008 HUI top.
  • The “B Wave” moved to new highs which is pretty bizarre considering how long the HUI price stayed up there.  [There is] little doubt this was orchestrated via paper gold, and the paper gold false pricing system gives the Fed full control of the Gold market price in that way.
  • The PM market action gives me little concern since the Fed needs Gold vastly higher (As do all the Central Banks) if they are going to use Gold…to balance the budgets/ balance sheets. Thus, I still expect Gold to be headed for our $10,000 to $12,000 target range, or higher…and
  • PM Stocks Indices will then…run vastly higher as we have been expecting, and the major 3rd and 5th waves should still run similar to the late 70’s surrogate charts.

At this time, it appears that Reward is very high for the PM Complex, with Risk very low.

Happy 4th of July to those of you in the States [happy July 1st to those of you in Canada and best regards to all you reading this article elsewhere from around the world]!

For the moment, GOLDRUNNER ~ Email me at GOLDRUNNER44@AOL.COM with your questions and comments.

[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*Goldrunner offers a subscription service which provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and his proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Go here to subscribe.

Other Goldrunner Articles:

1. Goldrunner: These Fundamental Charts Say “Gold Is Getting Ready to Run!”

The U.S. Dollar is being very aggressively devalued in a parabolic…[manner] as we enter the final stage in the paper currency cycle. The government needs Gold to go vastly higher so the budget can be balanced after all of the paper promise debts are added to the balance sheet. Interestingly, Michael Belkin, arguably one of the best analysts in the world, expects earnings for companies to plunge this year causing the DJIA to crater about 30%.  This fits with the kind of correction in the now high flying DJIA that we have discussed per the late 70’s charts where Gold and the Dow would meet between 10,000 and 12.000. Words: 1022 Read More »

2. Goldrunner: We’re at the Cusp of a Parabolic Move In Gold & Silver! Here are the Fundamentals & Technical Set Up to That End

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When are Gold and Silver going to start a huge parabolic move up?  I, personally, think that we are sitting at the cusp [of such happening] as we speak on an intermediate-term basis….Below are… the fundamentals and technical set-up [to that end]. Read More »

3. Goldrunner: What We ‘Know’ & ‘Don’t Know’ About Where Gold, Silver and PM Stocks Are Going

One never knows exactly where Precious Metals are going so I always try to keep in mind a list of items that are probable based on the facts that are evident.  I call this “what we know” and “what we don’t know”  so let’s take a look what we “know” and “don’t know” at this point in time. Words: 872 Read More »

4. Goldrunner Update: Gold, Silver & PM Stock Sentiment Sucks BUT the Fundamentals Are Off the Wall!

Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive.  That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time.

5. Goldrunner: Gold’s Extremely Bullish Backdrop Setting Stage for Run to $2,050, Then $2,400, Then $4,500 and Ultimately $10,000-12,000!

Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustrative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000

Related Articles:

1. Governments Will Want – Will NEED – Much Higher Gold Prices! Here’s Why

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That governments will want – and will NEED – much, much higher gold and silver prices in the future is counter intuitive, given that they have done everything within their power to throttle back and to keep a lid on bullion prices. Let me explain why. Words: 1300

2. The Case for a “Fair” Gold Price of $10,783/ozt

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What would happen to the market/spot price of gold if central banks around the world diverted their foreign currency reserves – almost $11 trillion’s worth – into gold. Using James Turk’s Gold Money Index the “fair” gold price would be $10,783/ozt. Read More »

3. “$10,000 Gold” Exclusive Excerpts from Nick Barisheff’s New Book

$10,000 Gold

$10,000 Gold offers a candid insight into the current state of the economy, the underlying causes of gold’s rising value and why the price of gold will continue climbing to $10,000/ounce and beyond in the years to come. The book contends that  intelligent investors have no choice but to invest in this precious  metal to stay safe no matter what lies ahead. Read More »

4. Nick Barisheff: $10,000 Gold is Coming! Here’s Why

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This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767

5.  Past Bubble Movements Suggests a Parabolic Peak Price of $9,000 for Gold & $250 for Silver Is NOT Unreasonable – Take a Look

Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1

6. 2013 Will Go Down In History As THE Best Buying Opportunity for Gold & Silver Metals and Stocks – Ever!

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The precious metals complex is arguably at its most bearish sentiment since the start of the bull market 12 years ago. Either the bull market is over or this will prove to be a tremendous buying opportunity. It’s clear that anyone who doesn’t believe in Gold for the long-term has sold and judging from the sentiment indicators, Gold is now in much stronger hands than when it was trading at these prices at the 2012 and 2011 lows. Despite all of the bearish sentiment, the panic and bad-mouthing, Gold (and Silver) has maintained its consolidation. Thus, if Gold is able to hold this support and turn higher, it should approach $1750 to $1800 faster than one would think. This year will go down in history as one of the best buying opportunities for both the metals and the stocks. Words: 675; Charts: 3 Read More »

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9. Physical Gold Cannot Possibly Lose Out Over Fiat & Digital Currencies – Here’s Why

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Gold cannot possibly lose its central position as the pre-eminent money used by the world for thousands of years. The aggressive measures of the Anglo-American Axis with regard to gold are absurd and they will lead to total disaster both for the Axis, and for the world which has been forced to follow its lead for over forty years. Read More »

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Gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year yet, in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. This article discusses 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap. Words: 444

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Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don’t let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873

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I’m not going to predict a speedy recovery for gold prices. That said, I continue to believe that gold offers investors safety in an uncertain world and, while I remain optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy and stellar financial performance of some companies, there is reason for concern on a global level. That’s why I think every investor…must own gold. Read More »

18. These 10 Charts Confirm That Bull Market in Gold Continues

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Gold and Historical Average measured against John Williams’ shadow CPI statistics (shows that the 1980 peak of $850 equals $9,000+ today, and clearly demonstrates gold is far away from making new ‘real’ highs). Read More »

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Volatility in the gold market often results in extremely bullish and bearish views. Below are 4 facts to remember about gold that should help neutralize such views and allow you to take a more balanced and thoughtful approach to the yellow metal. Read More »

20. I’m As Bullish As Ever On Gold Bullion – Here’s Why

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The recent panic selling in gold bullion caused those who were speculating to get out as their losses added up…[but] retail investors and central banks seem to be rushing to buy more. [Why is that? Let me explain.] Words: 260; Charts: 1 Read More »

21.  Central Bank Gold Purchases up 17% – Here’s Why You Should Jump in or Top Up Too

If central banks are preparing for a major change in the value of the dollar, shouldn’t we? The US dollar cannot and will not survive the ongoing abuse heaped upon it by government planners and federal officials. That not only means the gold price will rise, but that many, if not most currencies, will lose a significant amount of purchasing power. This has direct implications for all of us. Read More »

 

About Lorimer Wilson