So says James Rickards in edited excerpts from an interview* with Valentin Schmid (theepochtimes.com) entitled Interview with Jim Rickards: Gold Set for Massive Rally.
[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Rickards goes on to say in further edited excerpts from the interview:
To restore confidence you have two means:
- You either flood the world with liquidity from the International Monetary Fund in the form of Special Drawing Rights [SDRs, a form of money issued by the IMF], or
- we return to a gold standard.
The flooding of the market with SDRs would be highly inflationary so that, by itself, would drive gold to a higher level. If they go back to a gold standard they will have to take a non-deflationary price.
People say there is not enough gold in the world. The answer is there is always enough gold in the world. It’s just a question of the price. Now, at $1,300 an ounce, there is not enough gold to support world trade and finance, but at $10,000 per ounce, there is enough gold. It’s not about gold, it’s about the price.
If you go back to a gold standard you have to avoid the blunder that England made in 1925 by going back to the gold standard at the wrong price..[That] proved to be highly deflationary, and contributed to the Great Depression.
I’ve done the math on that and the non-deflationary price for a gold standard today is about $9,000 per ounce…based on supporting the paper money supply with gold…using M1 (paper notes, coins, and checking accounts) as the monetary base, with a 40 percent backing. If you were to use M2 (M1 plus savings accounts and money market funds) with a 100 percent backing, that would be $40,000 per ounce… [That] wouldn’t mean gold would be worth any more (in real terms); it would just mean the dollar has collapsed…[that] you get more dollars for the ounce. Let’s call that the three- to five-year forecast.
For the year ahead, those fundamentals are unlikely to play out…but the technicals can…based on the decline in floating supply.[2 factors were at play last year, namely:]
1. [The removal of] 500 tons from the GLD (Spider Gold Trust ETF) warehouse by the bullion banks. That was a massive physical overhang removed from the market…
The gold sits in a warehouse and is only available to authorized participants. If you look at the list of authorized participants and look at the list of bullion banks, they are pretty much the same: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, etcetera, [and] those banks have the ability to buy up shares, take the shares, cash them in, and get physical gold. [That’s what they were doing last year] and they were sending that gold to Shanghai to support trading and leasing on the Shanghai gold exchange. So when you take 500 tons and dump it on the market, that’s about 20 percent of the annual mining supply. It’s a massive physical injection.
2. The other factor is just outright manipulation, which is very visible in Comex future prices. I’ve seen some statistical analysis that demonstrates market manipulation beyond the shadow of a doubt.
So the point is that between central bank manipulation through Comex futures and bullion banks dumping the physical, and by cleaning out the GLD warehouse, and also the Comex warehouse for that matter, there is a massive amount of gold that came on the market over and above normal supply trends, putting massive selling pressure on the Comex.
That was a bad combination, but the problem is that it’s not sustainable. You can’t loot the warehouse twice. Once you take all the gold out, you can’t take it out again. JPMorgan’s vault is low, Comex’s vault is low, the GLD’s vault is low…
Where is gold going?
…One of the big movements right now is gold moving from places like UBS, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank to private storage such as G4S, ViaMAT, and Brink’s. That doesn’t increase the supply of gold at all. What it does do is it decreases the floating supply available for trading.
If I have my gold at UBS, UBS typically has the right of rehypothecation but if I take my gold and move it over to ViaMAT, it’s just sitting there and it’s not being traded or rehypothecated so, if I move gold from UBS to ViaMAT, there’s no more or less gold in the world. I’m still the owner, and it’s the same amount of gold.
From a market perspective, however, the floating supply has decreased [and] the biggest player in that is China. China is buying thousands of tons of gold secretly through deception and using military intelligence assets, covert operations, etcetera…
Why will gold rally?
You don’t need to buy all the gold, you just need to buy the floating supply…but the gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading…[As such,] with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly.[Given the above, that] means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to support it and that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
*http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/494029-interview-with-jim-rickards-gold-set-for-massive-rally/ – Copyright © 2000-2014 (James Rickards is the author of the national bestseller “Currency Wars” and the forthcoming book “The Death of Money.”)
Today China came out with their Central Bank Gold Holdings reporting 1054 tonnes but this is impossible. Here is why. Read More »
Last year…saw gold’s greatest decline in 32 years…but I’m still confident that gold’s bullish fundamentals are still intact and that what I said in my recently published book, $10,000 Gold, still holds true. Here’s why. Read More »
In this exclusive interview, Eric Sprott answers questions about the gold and silver market in which he suggests that gold could double in a year and, in the case of silver, could go up even more than that. As for gold and silver equities, he believes gains could be gargantuan, because the equities always double or triple the performance of physical gold. Here’s his reasoning. Read More »
In the last several months, the world economic crisis has entered a new elevated level of perma-crisis and constant tension, widely recognized as something more serious, more dangerous, and more risk-filled. This new normal is neither without resolution nor the attempt to resolve anything and, as such, is why the price of gold will rise to $5,000 per troy ounce, then higher, and at the same time, the silver price will rise multiples higher. Let me explain. Read More »
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies [and that] gold is just creating the conditions – a T-1 pattern – necessary for its next leg up to what I expect to be…around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. [Let me explain.] Words: 560; Charts: 3