Time is running out for all the 2014 enthusiasts that are calling for higher prices in gold and silver by year-end. The lessons learned from 2013 have been forgotten as not only are prices not beginning to move higher, they are making new recent lows. Incredibly enough, many of these prognosticators are paid pretty well by their subscribers. Lesson to be learned? Absolutely no one can divine the future. Stop listening to what others are saying, and pay attention to what the charts are saying – and below is a summary of just that.
The above introductory comments are edited excerpts from an article* by Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) entitled Gold And Silver – PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No..
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Here we are, in the cheap seats, showing our unadorned, simple charts each week, repeating the most basic advice possible: The single most piece of information one can have is knowledge of the trend. If the trend is down, do not be long, (at least not in the paper futures market although buying and holding physical gold and silver is a totally different issue).
…We have no pre-determined agenda for each week’s article….we are not locked into maintaining a false hope, pitching something that is contrary to what the market is advertising.
Last year, there was “hope” when news would come out about record coins sales, huge Chinese lines queued to buy gold, record tonnage purchases by China, Russia, sometimes India. We are amused to see similar articles appearing again, recently. Does that information really matter? Is it impacting the market? Not in the least.
We could be wrong, at least about our “story” that attends the charts, but we are not wrong about reading the chart direction. There is a reason why we keep saying to stop listening to what others are saying, and pay attention to what the charts are saying about those others who actually participate in the markets. Once more, there is no better source for what is happening in the markets than the market itself.
Our story is that the precious metals markets will not turn until the U.S. and the U.K. lose their control over the money markets. It could not be any simpler. When will that control be lost? Not any time soon, and 2014 could very well bleed into 2015 and 2016 just as 2013 did in 2014. It could all change next month or sometime thereafter, but until it does, no change is happening, yet…
For a point of clarity, to not be misunderstood, when we talk about the U,S., the U.K., or any other country, we talk about the government in charge and not about the people being governed. Americans, as individuals, are a fun-loving people, so are Brits, Russians, Palestinians, Chinese, almost every culture. People just want to get along and be content living their lives. The problem is the governments that control the people.
The federal government is in charge of the U.S., but only as a corporation, doing everything possible to enrich those who control and are a part of it. The U.S., all Western countries, are under total control of the moneychangers, the elites, a handful of people who control the entire central banking system, which in turn, controls the governments. None of these governments, none, care about the people being governed, except for lip service…[They] will go after any country, any people who get in their way…If you think hell hath no fury like a woman scorned is something to be avoided, try getting in the way of the elites. (Lincoln and Kennedy did. Bang Bang)…
Always remember, gold and silver (PMs) are the antithesis to the elites fiat paper, now computer blips. Central bankers are suppressing the PMs to eliminate any competition to their paper debt Ponzi scheme that is beginning to unravel, thanks to China and Russia, now BRICS and a larger number of countries willing to tie their future to the growing prosperity plans of China and Russia…
…Bush, Clinton, Bush II, and now Obama, have done the bidding of the elites and traded away or sold all the gold for money and power. Germany stopped asking for the return of its gold, most likely under the threat from the elites to back off, or else. She backed off. There is no gold. If Germany, considered the sole powerhouse of the EU, will not stand up, what country will?…As long as countries are willing to sacrifice their economies, crippling companies, hurting the economy, and
harming the economic viability of their people, gold and silver are not going anywhere.
What about Switzerland? There is a gold referendum on 30 November that would require the Swiss central bank to keep at least 20% of assets in gold. The Swiss people want this, but the Parliament (government) opposes it. Why? [Because] it would “impinge on the Swiss National Bank’s ability to conduct monetary policy.” In other words, it would stop the Swiss economy from being more “fiatized” (our word), to being less “fiatized,” or less burdened by debt. The Swiss Bank would not be able to “print” (digitize) more fiat. The gold-asset holding right now is at 8%. It used to be higher, but the Swiss caved-in to the elites and joined the fiat crowd, as demanded.
What people want does not matter. What the elite-controlled Western government sycophants want is what the people will get.[The above information] is part of the puzzle that, when put together, shows a picture of how the elites run the world. They are in control. No one can oppose their power. China and Russia are opposing them, right now, [given] their strength, backed by huge natural resources, (Russia), and massive amounts of gold, (China and Russia)…[and] neither…[is] in any hurry to see gold and silver rise, as long as they can continue to buy both at absurdly low, artificial prices. In fact, low PM prices are a huge leveraging source for China to continue to buy up the United States assets as it self-destructs into Third World oblivion. The elites are encouraging this process for they have bled this country dry of all its wealth. Now they just want control of the carcass and its military capabilities.
Now to the charts. (Something happened to our chart sizing, and our computer guy is unavailable to make the changes. My apologies.)
U.S. Dollar Index Chart
The strong rally on the monthly chart says to pay attention and do not ignore this higher time frame. Volume was the highest up volume, and it erased the higher volume when price sold off in 2013, first arrow. The ease of upward movement shows no sign of any stopping activity, so all one can do is watch and let it play out. Despite detractors on the future viability of the “dollar,” and we are one, the elites are not about to let it roll over and die without a strong fight. PMs are likely to remain weak with a strong dollar…
The chart comments are self-explanatory. The smallness of the weekly range is like a shot across the bow for the bears, at least seemingly. It acts as an alert, as opposed to a signal upon which to act. What we want to do now is see how the market responds/respects what could be the start of the end of the bottoming process.
Keep in mind, it takes markets longer to bottom or top than most expect. This market is already two years in process, so as price moves farther along the right hand side of the trade range, it is closer to a final resolve.
Silver – Weekly Chart
The high volume from Monday, 5th bar from right in the chart below, explains why the weekly bar was so small. It could be that Monday is a form of stopping volume, and Thursday’s lower bar on increased volume without continuing lower adds credence to how Monday’s bar is viewed… but it needs more time to unfold.
Silver – Daily Chart
Gold – Weekly Chart
Any time you see a market making lower highs consistently, as gold has done, it is a sign of weakness. Where silver had a small range bar, gold’s close is barely lower from the previous week, and that indicates a loss of downside momentum. Is it enough to say the market is turning? No. It needs more time.
We often mention clustering of closes as being either a resting spell before resuming the trend, or a possible turning point for a counter move of some kind. The lower volume when price tried to rally, during the clustering, was an indication that the downside was more than likely to resume.
Gold – Daily Chart
The holding of price, at 2, after a new recent low, and the strong close are positives, as is the holding of Friday’s decline on lower volume, but these are observations that need to be watched for confirmation that a potential rally may develop, (a bias here), or more sideways activity, possibly eventually still lower. As always, let the market declare itself more conclusively, as it always does.
The market will turn when it is ready, and not a day before. Understand that.
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
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