There is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs…The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after the price of silver has surpassed the $50/ozt. level. [Let me explain.] Words: 685
So says Hurbert Moolman (www.hubertmoolman.wordpress.com) in edited excerpts from his original article*.
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There are some similarities in the current silver market compared with the 1970s….[as can be seen below when] the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 [is compared] to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com). I [have chosen] those timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around those periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.
Note [above] how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.[Also] note [above] that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line…Currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level. The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).
The flag pattern forming currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.
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The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.
Below is a graphic that compares the gold chart [top] from 2007 to today, to the silver chart [bottom] from 2008 to 2010 in which I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.
The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months) [while] the consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles). Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.
Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.
The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.
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