Wednesday , 29 March 2017


Silver’s Neon “Sale!” Sign Is Flashing Like A Disco Ball! Here Are 7 Reasons Why

Eventually, all markets correct excesses. The global economy is near a tipping point,sunshine-silver-slide-e1268276971175 and we must prepare our portfolios now, ahead of that chaos, for a big payday which means owning a meaningful amount of physical silver in addition to gold. Let me offer 7 reasons why that is the case. Words: 1588

The above introductory comments are edited excerpts from an article* by Jeff Clark (caseyresearch.com) entitled Top 7 Reasons I’m Buying Silver Now.

The following article is presented courtesy of Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!)and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and has been edited, abridged and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Clark goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

The drugs of choice for governments — money printing, deficit spending, and nonstop debt increases — have proved too addictive for world leaders to break their habits.

At this point, the U.S. and other governments around the world have toked, snorted, and mainlined their way into an addictive corner; they are completely hooked. The Fed and their international central-bank peers are the drug pushers, providing the easy money to keep the high going and, despite the Fed’s latest taper of bond purchases, past actions will not be consequence-free.

At first, drug-induced highs feel euphoric, but eventually the body breaks down from the abuse. Similarly, artificial stimuli and sub-rosa manipulations by central banks have delivered their special effects—but addiction always leads to a systemic breakdown.

When government financial heroin addicts are finally forced into cold-turkey withdrawal, the ensuing crisis will spark a rush into precious metals. The situation will be exacerbated when assets perceived as “safe” today—like bonds and the almighty greenback—enter bear markets or crash entirely. As a result, the rise in silver prices from current levels won’t be 10% or 20%—but a double, triple, or more.

If inflation picks up steam, $100 silver is not a fantasy but a distinct possibility. Gold will benefit, too, of course, but due to silver’s higher volatility, we expect it will hand us a higher percentage return, just as it has many times in the past.

Why I’m Excited About Silver

When considering the catalysts for silver, let’s first ignore short-term factors such as net short/long positions, fluctuations in weekly ETF holdings, or the latest open interest. Data like these fluctuate regularly and rarely have long-term bearing on the price of silver.

I’m more interested in the big-picture forces that could impact silver over the next several years. The most significant force, of course, is what I stated above: governments’ abuse of “financial heroin” that will inevitably lead to a currency crisis in many countries around the world, pushing silver and gold to record levels.

At no time in history have governments printed so much money and not one currency in the world is anchored to gold or any other tangible standard. This unprecedented setup means that whatever fallout results, it will be of historic proportions and affect each of us personally.

Specific to silver itself, here are the data that tell me “something big this way comes”.

1. Inflation-Adjusted Price Has a Long Way to Go

One hint of silver’s potential is its inflation-adjusted price. I asked John Williams of Shadow Stats to calculate the silver price in June 2014 dollars (July data is not yet available).

Shown below is the silver price adjusted for both the CPI-U, as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the price adjusted using ShadowStats data based on the CPI-U formula from 1980 (the formula has since been adjusted multiple times to keep the inflation number as low as possible).

The $48 peak in April 2011 was less than half the inflation-adjusted price of January 1980, based on the current CPI-U calculation. If we use the 1980 formula to measure inflation, silver would need to top $470 to beat that peak.

I’m not counting on silver going that high (at least I hope not, because I think there will be literal blood in the streets if it does), but clearly, the odds are skewed to the upside—and there’s a lot of room to run.

2. Silver Price vs. Production Costs

Producers have been forced to reduce costs in light of last year’s crash in the silver price. Some have done a better job at this than others, but check out how margins have narrowed.

Relative to the cost of production, the silver price is at its lowest level since 2005. Keep in mind that cash costs are only a portion of all-in expenses, and the silver price has historically traded well above this figure (all-in costs are just now being widely reported). That margins have tightened so dramatically is not sustainable on a long-term basis without affecting the industry. It also makes it likely that prices have bottomed, since producers can only cut expenses so much.

Although roughly 75% of silver is produced as a by-product, prices are determined at the margin; if a mine can’t operate profitably or a new project won’t earn a profit at low prices, the resulting drop in output would serve as a catalyst for higher prices. Further, much of the current cost-cutting has come from reduced exploration budgets, which will curtail future supply.

3. Low Inventories

Various entities hold inventories of silver bullion, and these levels were high when US coinage contained silver. Now days, however, all US coins intended for circulation are minted from base metals so the need for high inventories of silver is low but this chart shows just how little is available.

You can see how low current inventories are on a historical basis, most of which are held in exchange-traded products. This is important because these investors have been net buyers since 2005 and thus have kept that metal off the market. The remaining amount of inventory is 241 million ounces, only 25% of one year’s supply—whereas in 1990 it represented roughly eight times supply. If demand were to suddenly surge, those needs could not be met by existing inventories. In fact, ETP investors would likely take more metal off the market. (The “implied unreported stocks” refers to private and other unreported depositories around the world, another strikingly smaller number.)

If investment demand were to repeat the surge it saw from 2005 to 2009, this would leave little room for error on the supply side.

4. Conclusion of the Bear Market

The updated snapshot below of six decades of bear markets signals that ours is near exhaustion. The black line represents silver’s decline from April 2011 through August 8, 2014.

The historical record suggests that buying silver now is a low-risk investment.

5. Cheap Compared to Other Commodities

Here’s how the silver price compares to other precious metals, along with the most common base metals.

Percent Change From…
  1 Year Ago 5 Years Ago 10 Years
Ago
All-Time
High
Gold -2% 38% 234% -31%
Silver -6% 35% 239% -60%
Platinum 3% 20% 83% -35%
Palladium 14% 252% 238% -21%
Copper -4% 37% 146% -32%
Nickel 32% 26% 17% -64%
Zinc 26% 49% 128% -47%

 

Only nickel is further away from its all-time high than silver.

6. Low Mainstream Participation

Another indicator of silver’s potential is how much it represents of global financial wealth, compared to its percentage when silver hit $50 in 1980.

In spite of ongoing strong demand for physical metal, silver currently represents only 0.01% of the world’s financial wealth. This is one-twenty-fifth its 1980 level. Even that big price spike we saw in 2011 pales in comparison.

There’s an enormous amount of room for silver to become a greater part of mainstream investment portfolios.

7. Watch Out for China!

It’s not just gold that is moving from West to East. Silver market trading volumes rose sharply last year, mostly a result of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) initiating overnight trading.

Don’t look now, but the SHFE has overtaken the Comex and become the world’s largest futures silver exchange. In fact, the SHFE accounted for 48.6% of all volume last year. The Comex, meanwhile, is in sharp decline, falling from 93.4% market share as recently as 2001 to less than half that amount today, and all that trading has led to a sharp decrease in silver inventories at the exchange. While most silver (and gold) contracts are settled in cash at the COMEX, the majority of contracts on the Shanghai exchanges are settled in physical metal. Which has led to a huge drain of silver stocks.

Since January 2013, silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen a remarkable 84% to a record low 148 tonnes. If this trend continues, the Chinese exchanges will experience a serious supply crunch in the not-too-distant future.

There’s more:

  • Domestic silver supply in China is expected to hit an all-time high and exceed 250 million ounces this year (between mine production, imports, and scrap). By comparison, it was less than 70 million ounces in 2000. However, virtually none of this is exported and is thus unavailable to the world market.
  • Chinese investors are estimated to have purchased 22 million ounces of silver in 2013, the second-largest amount behind India. It was zero in 1999.
  • The biggest percentage growth in silver applications comes from China. Photography, jewelry, silverware, electronics, batteries, solar panels, brazing alloys, and biocides uses are all growing at a faster clip in China than any other country in the world.

Based on the above review of big-picture data, what conclusion would you draw? If you’re like me, you’re forced to acknowledge that the next few years could be a very exciting time for silver investors.

Conclusion

Just like gold, a stash of silver:

  • will help maintain one’s standard of living,
  • will prove practical to use for small purchases and
  • will likely exceed consumer price inflation in a high-inflation/decaying-dollar scenario, giving us further purchasing power protection.

The bottom line is that the current silver price should be seen as a long-term buying opportunity. This may or may not be our last chance to buy at these levels for this cycle, but if you like bargains, silver’s neon “Sale!” sign is flashing like a disco ball.

Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

*http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/top-7-reasons-im-buying-silver-now (© 2014 Casey Research, LLC; All rights reserved)

Follow the munKNEE!

Related Articles:

1. The Case For $5,000 Silver – Yes, $5,000 Silver

If the price of silver were based directly on the real physical silver market, silver’s price should be at $5,000 an ounce. I’m not saying the price of silver will reach $5,000 an ounce; I’m just saying that the actual PHYSICAL silver spot price is not only extremely undervalued, but that it is an illusion compared to the real value of an ounce of physical silver, since it is totally disconnected from reality. [Let me explain further.] Read More »

2. 4 Unique Characteristics Should Propel Silver Skyward

With the likes of Ray Dalio and billionaire George Soros placing big bets on a recovery in precious metals now is likely the time for investors to take the plunge. The key question remains, however, which precious metal? My preference is silver. Here’s why. Read More »

3. Authors Of “The Money Bubble” Foresee $10-12,000 Gold & $500 Silver – Here’s Why

James Turk and John Rubino are well known figures in the gold industry and they’ve just published a new book, ‘The Money Bubble’ in which they argue that the price of gold is about to soar to $10-12,000/ozt. – and silver to $500/ozt. Here’s why. Read More »

4. Silver Presents A “Golden” Investment Opportunity – Here’s Why

Silver has a reputation for being gold’s less desirable sister, but make no mistake, silver may still be a golden opportunity to invest in. Silver’s use is already very prevalent in the photography, consumer electronics, medical, and high tech industries and a major consumer of silver in the future will be the green technology sector in products such as solar cells and batteries. Read More »

5. Buy Silver Instead of Gold! Here’s Why

People who have trusted the paper market first go to gold when they have their awakening because it is the largest precious metals market in the world but the more I learned about silver, however, the more I realized that silver was the smart decision. Here a a few reasons why that is the case. Read More »

6. Move Up In Silver To Be Sharper, Greater & Faster Than Gold – Here’s Why

Analysts and investors seem to be very bearish towards silver, but we think that the fundamentals of silver are now becoming extremely attractive in terms of contrarian opportunities. Volatility and risk are not always commensurate, and we believe that silver offers investors fundamentals that can be much stronger than expected and returns that would be magnified by the small size of the silver market (and the bearish positioning by participants). Contrarian investors would be wise to take note. Read More »

7. Silver Likely to Rally Even Farther & Faster Than Gold In Coming Months – Here’s Why

It is a reasonable bet that gold, about 40% below its 2011 high and facing large demand and dwindling supply, will rally in price over the next few years. Silver prices will follow gold prices but rally farther and faster from their currently low and oversold condition. Read More »

8. Gold:Silver Ratio Suggests Much Higher Future Price for Silver – MUCH Higher!

The majority of analysts maintain that gold will reach a parabolic peak price somewhere in excess of $5,000 per troy ounce in the next few years. Given the fact that the historical movement of silver is 90 – 95% correlated with that of gold suggests that a much higher price for silver can also be anticipated. Couple that with the fact that silver is currently greatly undervalued relative to its average long-term historical relationship with gold and it is realistic to expect that silver will eventually escalate dramatically in price. How much? This article applies the historical gold:silver ratios to come up with a range of prices based on specific price levels for gold being reached. Words: 691 Read More »

9. Silver Is Signaling Potential For Large Upside Move This Year – Here’s Why

While not widely reported or analyzed, over the past several months there has been an enormous amount of buying in the various markets for physical silver – both one-ounce sovereign-minted coins and refined bars. Along with some standard trading signals I’ll discuss below, I believe the activity in the market for physical silver is signaling the potential for a large upside move sometime this year. Let me explain. Read More »

10. A Rise In Silver Prices and a Fall In S&P 500 Index Seems Both Inevitable and Imminent – Here’s Why

Silver has had three bad years while the S&P has had 5 good years. It is time for both markets to reverse. Here’s why. Read More »

11. Spectacular Rally in Silver Depends on Whether This Dow 30 Rally is Real or Fake – Here’s Why

Which will it be – a long wait for a spike in silver or will it be soon? It all depends on whether this current Dow rally is real or fake. I think it’s fake. Read More »

12. Silver Has the Potential to Increase 4-Fold From Today’s Price – Here’s Why

The price ratio of gold to silver has fallen precipitously in raging bull markets for the metals, so the silver price could have an upwards move at four times the rate of any gold price increase. I think that the fundamentals look better than ever, and…[that] there is an explosive move coming in 2014. [Indeed,] I think that within a reasonable timeframe silver will probably trade over $100. Read More »

13. Massive Debt Levels Will Push Silver To $150 And Beyond

The process of the devaluation of gold and silver, started by the demonetization of gold and silver, is about to reverse at a greater speed than ever before. Read More »

14. What You Need to Know Before Investing in Silver

I believe there is more opportunity in the silver market over the next two years relative to gold and, as such I’m now advocating accumulating a large overweight position in silver relative to gold because, over the long-term, there is such a great demand vs. supply situation developing….Before investing in silver, however, there are a number very important things that you must understand about the silver market. Let me explain. Words: 899 Read More »

15. Silver On Its Way to $50/ozt. & Then to “Blue Sky Country”

Silver has moved above its 200-day moving average which is a signal for silver prices to challenge the $50 area, overcome it and then traverse ‘blue sky country’ to target the upper trendline shown in the chart shown below. Read More »

2 comments

  1. Considering JUST these:
    2. Silver Price vs. Production Costs
    7. Watch Out for China!
    One can see that Silver has huge upward potential!

    I’d add my own #8, which is that is is far easier to buy than Gold since it is less expensive, especially for those just getting in the PM market, which include millions of new investors globally As ever more buy physical Silver the market will react by moving upward.

    Got Silver?