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Benjamin Graham
What hope can there be for motivated stock pickers – no matter how much they sweat and toil – to outperform the low-cost index funds that simply mechanically track the market? Well – in spite of the absurd rise of the Nobel-acclaimed, and highly promoted, Efficient Market Hypothesis that claims that individual investors can’t beat the market – it turns out there is plenty! Just ask Warren Buffett, for one. [Let me explain.] Words: 1574
February 5th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Benjamin Graham, known as the father of value investment, is famous for his simple, yet powerful, valuation method as first explained in his 1973 book, Intelligent Investor, and later updated in his book entitled Renaissance of Value. His “Graham Number” approach has been adapted and applied to all 30 stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Index to determine which of the stocks have above average safety factors – of which only 10 do. Below is an explaination of the approach, the formula and the results for all 30 stocks. Words: 1220
August 29th, 2011 | Posted in Asset Allocation,Investing | Read More »
Benjamin Graham, the “godfather of value investing” created an equation to calculate the maximum fair value for a stock, referred to as the Graham Number and any stock trading at a significant discount to this number would appear undervalued. [Here are the names of 18 such stocks.] Words: 1707
August 17th, 2011 | Posted in Asset Allocation,Investing | Read More »
The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite. After dropping to 13.3 in March 2009, the P/E10 has rebounded to 23.0. The historical average is 16.39 raising concerns about the current price level of the S&P Composite. Let me explain. Words: 1298
March 28th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338
January 22nd, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
While the average amateur investor may be excellent in their own career field, it doesn’t mean they know what to invest in, or how to pick stocks. In fact being very good at your field can give you the false sense that whatever stocks you pick or your broker picks for you must be good, because after all, you picked them and you picked your broker — and you’re smart so, no doubt, those stock prices will go up. Unfortunately, the smart and talented stock-picking neophyte is not investing at all but speculating. Words: 924
August 26th, 2010 | Posted in Investing | Read More »
Being afflicted with an Austrian outlook can turn many a would-be investor into a permabear. Indeed, if I were truly a hardcore advocate of Austrian investing, my only assets would be a shotgun and a bag of gold because, up until now, I have never come across any writing that attempted to weld Austrian thought onto an investment framework. Words: 953
April 11th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
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