Economic inflection points are seldom obvious but if we take the time to analyze all the data, there are at least five indicators that suggest another U.S. recession is not imminent. [Take a look.] Words: 920
The new [debt ceiling deal] legislation will add $2.4 trillion to the $14.3 trillion national debt in a little over a year – and we don’t even start saving money until after the debt reaches $16.7 trillion! This bill doesn’t even cut the deficit. It just slows the growth of government spending to around 8% a year! So, even if Congress cuts $2.1 trillion out of the budget over the next 10 years, we will still be running annual deficits of more than $1 trillion…[That means that in addition to a deficit that will continue to grow we can look forward to a shrinking economy, an imploding U.S. dollar and exploding inflation. Some future! Let me explain.] Words: 827
Inflation is the big ‘sword of Damocles´ hanging over our heads and the higher interest rates that may arrive with it over time. We believe that one of three scenarios is probable in the months and years ahead and in this article we provide a summary of these scenarios and give a brief glimpse into the respective investments/asset classes that we consider most suitable in each scenario. Words: 1331
We may reach levels for gold previously thought of as crazy – $5,000 an ounce or even $10,000 – with plenty of volatility and pullbacks along the way… and in my opinion there are 10 reasons it could happen within the next 12 months and, if not by then, then soon after. Why? Because, in short, there is way too much fiat currency chasing way too little gold. Words: 951
The U.S. caused the 1930s deflationary depression and is again the cause of the current contraction. Although similarities exist between the two, the differences between them insure a far more consequential outcome today than in the 1930s. [Indeed, the world] now finds itself on the edge of a growing deflationary sinkhole created by the sequential collapse of two large U.S. bubbles, the dot.com and U.S. real estate bubbles. Words: 1549
A recent research paper* by the Bank for International Settlements, entitled “The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications” paints a terrifying prospect for the inhabitants of most of the developed world with deficits spiralling out of control for every western industrialized country under study and inflation a foregone conclusion as a result. Words: 1128
The market is currently slightly over-valued now which is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. Eventually, however, interest rates will get to levels of at least 4% (which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I am no prophet but if I had to guess, I would think future returns will be somewhere between Bogle’s and Shiller’s estimates, i.e. between 8% and 10%.
FACEBOOK
TWITTER