Wednesday , 15 August 2018


Tag Archives: CAPE

Where Are We In the Current Economic/Market Cycle? These Charts Will Help You Decide

There is a debate on Wall Street between those who believe we have entered into the next “secular bull market” and those who believe that the current market advance is predicated on artificial stimulus and, as such, the “secular bear market” remains intact. Take a look below at a series of charts designed to allow you to draw your own conclusions and convey your view in the comments section at the very bottom of the page. Words: 719; Charts: 12

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Shiller & Siegel Forecasts of Future Real Stock Market Returns Differ Considerably

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

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A Violent Correction Is Coming For the S&P 500! Here's Why

Valuation-based forecasting models leave little doubt that stocks are priced to deliver very poor long-term returns and the cyclical bull market from 2009 is an extreme move that will almost certainly be followed by a violent correction. [Let me explain.] Words: 701

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Note: Current Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio Says S&P 500 is Over-valued

The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite. After dropping to 13.3 in March 2009, the P/E10 has rebounded to 23.0. The historical average is 16.39 raising concerns about the current price level of the S&P Composite. Let me explain. Words: 1298

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Is the Stock Market Over-priced? These Charts Provide Some Insight

Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338

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