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Carmen M. Reinhart

Attention America! Your Surging Debt Will Eventually Suffocate You

Our empirical research ( Growth in a Time of Debt) on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities shows that burdens above 90% are associated with 1% lower median growth – and the United States’ debt level is currently hovering around 90% on a gross basis and 60% netting out assets. Politicians like to argue that their country will expand its way out of debt but our historical research suggests that growth alone is rarely enough to achieve that…[given] the debt levels we are experiencing today…[As such,] we need to be cautious about surrendering to the “this-time-is-different” syndrome and decreeing that surging government debt isn’t as significant a problem in the present as it was in the past. [Let us explain why.] Words: 1175

July 11th, 2011 | Posted in Debts/Deficits,Economy | Read More »

“This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” – A Book by Reinhart and Rogoff

Highly leveraged economies, particularly those in which continual rollover of short-term debt is sustained only by confidence in relatively illiquid underlying assets, seldom survive forever, particularly if leverage continues to grow unchecked. Words: 1264

February 10th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »

 

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