Tuesday , 23 October 2018


Tag Archives: credit spreads

Will We or Won't We Have Another Recession Soon – The Case For and Against a Second Dip

I am worried about the possibility of a second dip - of a new recession beginning sometime in the next year or so - before the current recovery has had a chance to produce much improvement. Verbally-intuitively, the case for a second dip still seems pretty overwhelming to me. I take comfort in the knowledge that I tend to have a pessimistic bias, and in the fact that sophisticated quantitative models are generally putting the odds of a second dip quite low. On the other hand, successfully forecasting recessions has not been a strong point of quantitative models. Words: 1433

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