Gold Will Keep Cruising as Currencies Come Under Pressure

America Rushing Towards the Greatest Economic Crisis in our History!

I have great confidence in mankind’s ability to ultimately overcome even the most extreme of crisis but at this juncture, however, America has yet to begin that arduous process. We live an unrealistic lifestyle on borrowed money and borrowed time. [As such, we are on the brink of] a looming crisis with the power to crush the U.S. economy. Unless Washington makes a 180-degree turn, we face a catastrophe that could end our way of life as we know it. Words: 870

So says the Martin Weiss (www.moneyandmarkets.com) in an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com, has further edited ([  ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. (Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.) Weiss goes on to say:

Massive Debt Crisis Making Headlines

America’s massive debt crisis is [only now beginning to] explode onto the headlines in warnings — the same ones for which we were scoffed at earlier — echoed by many among the political elite such as Senator Mark Warner, Congressman Allen West, and Senator Joe Manchin who have publicly warned that we are approaching — I quote — “Financial Armageddon,” … “Fiscal Armageddon” … and a “Fiscal Titanic.” 

Their warnings are very appropriate and timely especially given the fact that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released a new report showing that President Obama’s budget will drive the budget deficit UP an additional $2.3 TRILLION over the next ten years – and the CBO is infamous for having grossly UNDERestimating budget deficits in the past. Indeed, just a couple of years ago, in fact, CBO said this year’s deficit would be LESS THAN ONE FOURTH as large as it actually is! Such massive estimation errors ALONE are enough to explain why these Congressmen are issuing such extreme warnings!

In addition to the above, no fewer than TEN former members of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — including President Obama’s former top economic adviser Christina Romer — have added their voices to those warning of a looming economic catastrophe stating in an editorial published by Politico that unless the White House and Congress slash the federal deficit, bond investors are likely to turn on the United States, triggering an economic crisis that could — again, I quote — “DWARF 2008.”

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In 2008, Wall Street came within a whisker of a financial meltdown. Financial monoliths like Citigroup and Bank of America nearly went bust and Lehman — one of the giants of Wall Street — simply ceased to exist. Now, these top economists and Congressmen are saying, in effect, “That was NOTHING. Just wait until you see what happens NEXT!”

An “American Apocalypse” Awaits Us!

Unlike the credit crisis that triggered the last major stock market collapse … the “Fiscal Armageddon” that could “dwarf 2008″ will be intensely personal. Millions of Americans will face the specter of lost incomes … lost savings … lost buying power … lost homes … lost liberty. 

In my new video presentation — American Apocalypse — I

• show you why and give you a clear plan to insulate yourself and your wealth as this historic catastrophe unfolds
• detail the three massive crises — all converging in this time frame — that are capable of changing history
• reveal the infuriating reason why you could find yourself paying more than $11 for a gallon of gasoline and over $10 for a gallon of milk
• document why you could soon see interest rates exploding into double digits … your Social Security and Medicare benefits slashed … even riots in the streets
• tell you about the self-defense investments that could triple, quadruple and more
• tell you why more than 2,000 of America’s banks are vulnerable to this crisis
• describe the $51 investment with the power to nearly quintuple your money when the dominoes fall
• give you the details on why thousands of U.S. stocks are now as vulnerable as toy balloons in a room full of razor blades and
• tell you about the investments that could make you 134.4% richer if a decline happens in the next 12 months … and 155.4% richer if it comes sooner.

DO NOT miss a minute of this shocking video: Click this link to watch it now — while there’s still time to protect your family and your finances.

Who in the world is currently reading this article along with you? Click here to find out. 

Make no mistake: America is rushing headlong towards the greatest economic crisis in our history — an “American Apocalypse.”

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/white-house-economists-predict-crisis-to-%e2%80%9cdwarf%e2%80%9d-2008-43665?FIELD9=2 (Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. To view archives or subscribe, visit their site.)

** http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/congressmen-%e2%80%9cfiscal-titanic%e2%80%9d-ahead-43661?FIELD9=2

Editor’s Note:

• The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
• Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given as per paragraph 2 above.
• Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our FREE Weekly Newsletter.

Crisis

If you thought Wall Street’s debt crisis was traumatic, wait till you the see the consequences of Washington’s debt crisis! Words: 1085

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below further reformatted and edited [..] excerpts from Martin Weiss’ (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com) original article* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. (Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting to avoid copyright infringement.) Weiss goes on to say:

Never before in history has a world power like the U.S. been so utterly buried in debt and never before has that debt been financed so massively by foreign investors! The consequences will be dire if history is any guide:
a) 19th century Mexico, Spain, and Argentina accumulated so much debt, they were forced to default.
b) In the 20th century, a similar fate befell Germany (1932) … China (1939) … Turkey (1978) … Mexico again in 1982 … Brazil and the Philippines (1983) … South Africa in 1985 … plus Russia and Pakistan in 1998.
c) Argentina kicked off the 21st century with a default in 2001.
d) Barring a euro zone rescue, Greece, Spain, and Portugal are prime candidates for debt defaults this year.

In none of the examples above did the debts represent[ed] little more than a small fraction of the total debts outstanding worldwide but that is not so in our case today! The United States government and its agencies have the largest pile-up of interest-bearing debts ($15.6 trillion), the largest accumulation of unsecured obligations (over $60 trillion), the largest yearly deficit ($1.6 trillion), and the greatest indebtedness to the rest of the world ($4.8 trillion).

In proportion to the size of its economy, one important country, Japan, does have more debt than the U.S. but unlike Washington’s debts, nearly all of Japan’s debts are financed by its own citizens — loyal, long-term savers who are far less likely to pull out in a storm.

Washington’s debt crisis represents a unique, unparalleled, and unimaginable convergence of circumstances because no one can answer this simple question being asked by former GAO chief David Walker: Who will bail out America? Not you, not me, and not 300 million Americans! Not China, not Japan, nor all the powers on Earth put together! They’re simply not big enough. They don’t have the money.

Despite the utter gravity of our plight, however, nothing is being done to change our course. Congress can not even agree to study the issue. Congress could not vote on a deficit commission so the President appointed a separate commission but it will have no authority to bring its recommendations to a vote in Congress — let alone get them passed. The consequences of this complacency will be catastrophic. To whit:

Consequence #1: Interest Rates will Rise
Due to the avalanche of government borrowing to finance the deficit, there is no power on Earth that can avert sharply higher interest rates. Just a few weeks ago, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds busted through a declining trend that had not been penetrated in more than 20 years and just last week, it came within a hair of its highest level in over two years. With just one more, ever-so-slight nudge to the upside, all heck could break loose in the Treasury-bond market. You could see a surge in long-term interest rates that will make your hair curl.

What’s so damning about this action in the bond market right now is the fact that it’s coming at the worst possible time and that is why Washington and Wall Street fear it so much. That’s why they’re so anxious NOT to tell you about it.

Consequence #2: Bond Yields will Soar
All long-term bonds — whether issued by other government agencies, corporations, states, or municipalities — will also collapse, driving their yields through the roof because, when Uncle Sam has to pay more to borrow, they inevitably have to pay more as well.

Consequence #3: Rates on Mortgages and Car Loans will Surge
Why? For the simple reason that they’re also tied at the hip of long-term Treasury rates.

If you want to take out a 30-year fixed mortgage (now close to 5 percent) on a median-priced home ($178,300), and you can afford a 10 percent down payment just a 1 percent rise in rates will drive your monthly payment from $861 to $962 and a 2 percent increase will drive it to $1,068 per month. That’s $1200 to $2500 more per year! Worse, if you go for variable-rate mortgages, balloon mortgages, or other now hard-to-get alternatives, the impact of surging interest rates will be even more traumatic.

Consequence #4: Fledgling Recovery will Stall
The fledging recovery in housing and auto sales — the pride and joy of Washington’s bailout brigades — will be toast.

Consequence #5: Long-term Bonds will Plummet
Institutions and individual investors holding piles of lower yielding long-term bonds will get killed. Not all of these holdings are of the long-term variety but most are and investors and institutions who own them on behalf of millions of retirees will suffer shocking declines in the market value of their portfolios gutting their income stream as a result.

Worst of all, we now have some reason to fear the de facto default of the biggest debtor of all — the government of the United States of America – although I doubt very much we will see THAT happen.

Nevertheless, it is quite possible, even likely, that America will lose its triple-A rating and if the Wall Street rating agencies don’t have the moral fiber to announce downgrades, the marketplace will do it for them.

Ultimately, there is NO choice. We must bite the bullet. We must make the sacrifices. Like California and Greece … like every household and any company … our government MUST cut back and accept the rest of the consequences:

Consequence #6: Declining Home Values

Consequence #7: Falling Stocks

Consequence #8: The End of the Recovery

… and many, many more.

Our leaders will eventually face an Armageddon unlike any since the Civil War unless they must either muster the courage — and the support of the people — to accept the pain and make the sacrifices of a lifetime … or face the downfall of America. They will, no doubt, seek every other alternative and try every other trick but, alas, no printing press can run faster than our foreign creditors can sell their U.S. bonds. No one will bail out America.

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/armageddon-3-37911 (Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
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The key point to understand about gold is that it is neither a risk nor a safe haven asset because it doesn’t move with or against risk appetite. Instead, it rises with fear about the value of paper currency, regardless of overall risk appetite – and that fear can occur in both bull and bear markets. Here’s the proof. Words: 481

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below further reformatted and edited excerpts from Cliff Wachtel’s (www.avafx.com) original article* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Wachtel goes on to say:

Throughout the entire risk asset rally of March – December 2009, gold rose right along with the S&P 500. Why? Because of fear of inflation. The US dollar was selling off on fears of impending hyperinflation from the Fed’s massive stimulus program. The global economy was widely believed to be recovering, and it was feared that this growth would soon unleash inflation from the supposed large increase in the money supply – albeit an oversimplification because this reasoning fails to consider whether the money was actually circulating in the economy.

During the period from mid-April to mid-May 2010 the S&P 500, our risk appetite barometer, fell hard as the EU debt crisis metastasized into the global market-crasher it remains yet gold rose sharply during the same period, just like a safe-haven asset such as the USD. Why? Because of fear that the euro would lose value, either via disintegration of the EU or devaluation via money printing needed to bail out Greece and other troubled nations (or more correctly, the big European banks holding their bonds).

In sum:
Gold rises when:
markets think paper currency is more likely to lose value, be it due to:
a) inflation from growth during good times when too much money chases too few goods, or
b) financial system or currency collapse

Gold prices drop when:
a) there is no concern about the loss of value of paper currency
b) its value is rising in deflationary periods regardless of whether overall risk asset markets are rising or falling.

Why is this especially important to know [right] now? Because for the coming months, deflation is the bigger concern than inflation as China and the EU both experience slowing growth, and the inflation figures remain tame in both the US and Japan – [and that means we are likely to see a DROP in gold prices.]

*http://seekingalpha.com/article/206487-the-must-know-truth-about-gold?source=article_sb_popular (www.avafx is a leading online trading site for global currency,commodity, and stock index trading.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.

Does the federal government’s huge debt burden threaten an American debt crisis? Frankly, I don’t think so. Call me Pollyanna, but I’m struck by how we reversed a large deficit in the 1980s and actually ran a surplus in the Clinton years. Let me explain why I think that a similar situation could develop once again. Words: 1438

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Dr. Bill Conerly (http://businomics.typepad.com) goes on to say:

1. The Classic Debt Crisis Pattern, and Possible Outcomes
A typical debt crisis pattern can apply to a country, a corporation, or an individual, but we’ll talk about it in terms of countries. A country runs a large deficit year after year. In addition to new borrowing each year, the country must refinance old debt coming due. The country’s creditors start to get nervous about the country’s ability (or willingness) to repay the debt. They demand higher interest rates, and may offer to buy debt only if it is denominated in some other currency.

A country can use inflation to reduce the real (inflation adjusted) value of its debt. Creditors know that. They know that inflation typically pulls down the value of a country’s currency on foreign exchange markets. So if, for example, global investors were nervous about Mexico’s debt, they might refuse to buy peso-denominated bonds. However, they might take dollar-denominated Mexican debt. In that way investors are protected against Mexican inflation, though not against Mexican default.

There are three possible resolutions of a debt crisis:
1. the country may pay higher interest rates on its debt, then show fiscal responsibility by cutting its deficit, and thus win credibility with global investors.
2. a bailout package may be assembled by other countries (perhaps with participation from the International Monetary Fund or another multi-national organization). The other countries will typically require an austerity package of fiscal policy changes, designed to bring the country’s budget back into balance.
3. a country may not be able to resolve the worries of global creditors. It either repudiates its debt, or simply announces a deferred payment plan. The creditors cannot foreclose on an entire country, but they will decline to lend any new money to the country. Thus, the country has to run either a balanced budget, or a deficit small enough that it can be financed by its own citizens.

The common element is that external creditors impose fiscal discipline on a country, either directly or indirectly.

2. Early Warning Signs of an Impending Debt Crisis
There are two signs that you are entering a crisis:
1. The interest rate the country has to pay rises
2. Lenders are not interested in bonds denominated in your own currency.

Those who are worried about a debt crisis will have a challenge interpreting interest rates. Think of three components to the Treasury’s long-term bond rates:
1. The global risk-free interest rate
This used to be measured by the U.S. Treasury bond, but that proves problematic if we are worried about America’s credit quality. The key concept here is that the global business cycle will push the global risk-free rate up or down, as demand for credit from all users increases or decreases.
2. Expected U.S. inflation
Lenders want to be compensated for any loss of purchasing power due to inflation.
3. The U.S. risk premium
This is the spread that lenders demand over the risk-free rate to compensate for the risk of default.

A good early warning system (which I have not set up numerically) would monitor several factors. Start with the interest rates and inflation expectations in major low-risk countries. You can use the IMF’s database to identify advanced economies with positive “fiscal balance” and low current inflation rates. Taking a quick scan, Denmark, Finland, South Korea, New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland seem to fit the bill. The Treasury Bonds of these countries will roughly measure the global risk-free rate. Then add in U.S. inflation by looking at the difference in interest rates between regular Treasury Bonds and inflation-adjusted bonds. Right now that spread is about 2.3 percent.

Conclusion: Any increase in U.S. bond yields above changes in global risk free rate and U.S. expected inflation may be due to risk of a debt crisis.

3. Likelihood of a United States Debt Crisis
I don’t think an American debt crisis is very likely. Call me Pollyanna, but I’m struck by how we reversed a large deficit in the 1980s and actually ran a surplus in the Clinton years. How did that happen? Back in that old time, some Republicans still believed in fiscal responsibility. More importantly, control of the government was divided between Democrats and Republicans, unlike the W. Bush years or the Obama years (so far). The differences of opinion led to gridlock, which many people thought was bad back then. Oh, how we long for some gridlock today. The final issue that helped restrain spending was President Clinton’s scandals. The nation was focused on what happened to that blue dress. On top of the fiscal responsibility was a thriving economy, which boosted tax revenues.

Looking forward, our formula for working out of the current deficit pattern would be to have the Republicans regain control of one house of Congress (but not both houses of Congress plus the White House). The economy fully recovers. I’m not ready to forecast surpluses to come, but I can envision the deficits coming down to reasonable magnitudes.

How big is our deficit relative to the supply of funds available to support it? The deficit is (in round numbers) $1.5 trillion. Total world savings is about $25 trillion, so our deficit is a good chunk, but a manageable chunk, of the funds that investors put to work every year.

That’s the annual deficit. What about the accumulated debt? Right now it’s about $8 trillion, to which we need to add about $5 trillion of off-balance sheet liabilities of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and other Government Sponsored Enterprises, for a total of $13 trillion. (We won’t add in the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, which are pretty scary 20 years out, when the baby boomers have retired and are big health care consumers.)

The $13 trillion in official debt is getting close to our $14 trillion gross domestic product, but be careful. The debt is often put in terms of GDP, but it’s dangerous to compare a stock variable to a flow variable. Instead, here are some interesting stock variables: net worth of the U.S. household sector is about $54 trillion. Net worth of our business sector is about $18 billion. (The federal government itself does not have a balance sheet! The government does not tally up all of its land, buildings, ships, etc.)

In summary, I am not worried about a United States debt crisis. Don’t take my lack of fear as an endorsement of our fiscal policy of recent years, however. I would have voted against the President’s stimulus proposal. In fact, had I been in Congress, my voting record would have made Ron Paul look like a socialist but one does not have to believe that calamity is just around the corner.

Investment Tips for Those Worried About a Debt Crisis
I know that some of you are still not convinced, so here are some investment tips for those still worried:
1. Avoid U.S. dollar-denominated assets. Buy foreign stocks, bonds and real estate. Those countries with fewest ties to America will be least affected.
2. Use the futures market to short United States Treasury Bonds. Here’s a rough rule of thumb: the 10-year Treasury bond has a “modified duration” of about eight years, which indicates that for every percentage point change in interest rates, the value of the bond will decline by eight percentage points. Right now Greece’s bonds are yielding about five percentage point more than German bonds. If you think that the U.S. will have a credit risk at least that large, then there’s a 40 percent gain waiting for you on the short side of the transaction.

I’m not too worried about inflation or about a debt crisis. I am, however, worried about the impact of the higher taxes that are likely to come.

*http://seekingalpha.com/article/200640-federal-debt-crisis-in-the-u-s-nothing-to-worry-about?source=email

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
- Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.
- Buy the book below from Amazon. It’s pertinent to this article and inexpensive too.

Governments the world over have spent the past year bailing out, backstopping, insuring, and stimulating their financial sectors and economies throwing around trillions of dollars, euros, yen, and pounds like Halloween candy. Officials have assured us there’s little risk to that strategy but I believe that the opposite is true – that if you borrow and spend too much, all you’re going to do is transform a Wall Street debt crisis into a Washington debt crisis. Words: 882

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Mike Larson (www.moneyandmarkets.com) goes on to say:

Lo and behold, the bill for all this global fiscal and monetary largesse is beginning to come due. Debt and deficit problems are going from bad to worse in many nations. That’s raising the very real risk of the unthinkable: widespread SOVEREIGN debt defaults!

Dubai
The first shot across the bow came when the tiny emirate of Dubai dropped a bombshell on the markets. A government-backed holding company, Dubai World, warned that it needed to restructure $26 billion in debts – all $26B – tied to its property development arm Nakheel PJSC and other subsidiaries.

Am I surprised? Not in the least. The Dubai debt crisis was a long time coming but the troubling thing is that Dubai is NOT alone.

Greece
Greece is part of the European Union, and it’s rapidly sliding down the slope toward default. Its budget deficit has exploded to 12.7 percent of GDP, the worst in the 27 EU countries, while its outstanding public debt load is on track to hit 125 percent of GDP in 2010.

In order to avoid stiff EU sanctions and penalties, Greece is slashing its operations budget by 10 percent. The government is also planning a 2010 hiring lockdown and a partial public salary freeze. Greece’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou says there is “absolutely” no default risk but those measures don’t appear to be comforting investors.

The Athens Stock Exchange General Index has plunged. Meanwhile, Greece’s two-year government debt has dropped in price by the most in 11 years. Fitch has already cut Greece’s sovereign debt rating to “BBB+.” That’s the third-lowest investment grade rating. Standard & Poor’s rates Greece “A-,” but that rating may be lowered soon.

Bottom line: We’re facing the very real possibility of a significant sovereign debt default or bailout in Europe.

Spain
At times like these, investors naturally ask themselves where the next domino might fall. My answer: How about Spain? S&P has lowered its credit outlook for that country to negative from stable. The ratings agency cited “pronounced deterioration” in the country’s public finances.

Spain is in trouble because it experienced its own gigantic housing bubble, one that has long-since popped. Unemployment is on track to top 20 percent in 2010, while the nation’s deficit is swelling toward 11 percent of GDP. The economy has shrunk for six straight quarters, prompting the government to spend billions of dollars to stimulate growth.

The U.K.
Then there’s the U.K. Its budget deficit is running at 12 percent of GDP, the highest in the Group of 20 community of nations. That’s forcing the government to impose a 50 percent tax on banker bonuses, and to boost income taxes. Despite those moves, the U.K. Treasury is still going to have to borrow billions more pounds than it originally planned to fund its deficit.

The U.S.
What about us? The fiscal 2009 budget deficit here soared to $1.4 trillion, the worst ever. That was equal to 9.9 percent of the overall economy — almost triple the level of a few years ago and the highest in the nation’s history, excluding years where deficits were bloated by massive war spending (à la World War II). Over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projects an additional $7.2 trillion-plus in red ink.

We are now borrowing record amounts of money, week in and week out, to underwrite our profligacy. Our debt load is rising so fast, Congress has had to raise the so-called debt “ceiling” yet again. Everyone knows the cap is a joke. Every time we come close to tagging it, lawmakers just raise it again but the frequency and size of those increases is getting totally out of control.

Nobody expects the U.K. or U.S. to lose their AAA debt ratings anytime soon but Moody’s has warned in a report that both countries’ ratings are at more risk than those in other triple-A rated countries like Germany and France and I don’t see any credible plan coming out of Washington to get our disastrous budget situation under control.

Given this environment, my advice for investors is simple: avoid investing in regions where sovereign credit risk is rising. Focus instead on countries where government debt and deficits are NOT a major threat such as China, Brazil, and Australia who are generally sitting on massive reserves, seeing healthy growth, and otherwise prospering.

You may also want to think about lightening up your risk a little bit.

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/sovereign-debt-defaults-the-next-shoe-to-drop-2-36832 (Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
- Sign up to receive every article posted via Twitter, Facebook, RSS feed or our Weekly Newsletter.
- Submit a comment. Share your views on the subject with all our readers.
- Buy the book below from Amazon. It’s pertinent to this article and inexpensive too.