Home » deflation
deflation
The global economy is going to endure a significant deleveraging cycle as we move through 2012 – one that will affect most if not all parts of the developed world. It will be accomplished by some combination of default and write-downs, debt repayment and rising savings rates. [Below I outline 8 areas of behaviorial change to watch for in 2012 and 7 ways to invest in such a fluid economic environment.] Words: 1186
December 1st, 2011 | Posted in Asset Allocation,Investing | Read More »
When the supply of something is increased sharply relative to demand, the value of that commodity will decline. If the supply continues to increase rapidly and indefinitely, then that item will become worth less and less, with the potential to finally become nearly worthless. This is the Developing Disaster facing the US Dollar and the world. This is the factor that could become the single most important criterion in investment allocation decisions and possibly even for individual financial survival…[Let me explain this further by reviewing the 7 major problems facing the U.S. (and thus the world) and how they all will lead to problem #7 - devolution.] Words: 1520
November 29th, 2011 | Posted in Debts/Deficits,Economy,Inflation/Deflation,U.S. Dollar | Read More »
A look at the chart for SLV from September 2007 to August 2008 (11 months) and from November 2010 to October 2011 (11 months) is remarkably similar – almost identical in fact. Therefore, if silver continues to trace out a similar path to what transpired in 2008, what are the possible implications for stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals? Take a look at the following 19 charts for some possible outcomes. Words: 731
October 18th, 2011 | Posted in Asset Allocation,Investing | Read More »
The parabolic rise in Gold and in Silver still have a very long way to go as measured directly off of the late 1970’s Charts. In fact, we expect the arithmetic ratio targets for Gold and for Silver, based on the late 1970’s rise for each, to get blown away since we are seeing a logarithmic rise in dollar inflation compared to the late 1970’s. We have just hit the point where the more parabolic rise in Gold set off the leverage for the Gold Stocks in the late 1970’s. Therefore, we expect the real parabolic PM Stock Index Bull is just now commencing. Let me explain. Words: 1769
September 23rd, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
Paul Volcker has written an Op-Ed for The New York Times entitled “A Little Inflation Can Be a Dangerous Thing,” in which he argues – and we really won’t dispute it – that allowing inflation above institutionally accepted levels of say, 2 percent, can indeed be a slippery slope, and a very bad thing, but times have changed since Mr. Volcker decided that he would do whatever it took to slay inflation. [These days a little inflation might be a very good thing. Let me explain.] Words: 1636
September 18th, 2011 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
If the debt ceiling deal agreement is fully implemented [it is only going to exacerbate America's financial and economic woes and accelerate the demise of the U.S.] Dollar Standard which is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its demise is imminent. The only question is will it be death by fire—hyperinflation—or death by ice—deflation? Fortunes will be made and lost depending on the answer to that question. [Let me explain how the collapse of the dollar could well unfold.] Words: 944
August 31st, 2011 | Posted in Economy,U.S. Dollar | Read More »
Over the past two months stock markets have crashed around the world and gold prices have soared as global investors decided that the U.S. has lost its race against time. A new recession is upon us before we even half-closed the output gap left open from the last recession. It means even larger deficits and an even weaker dollar. The price of gold and Treasury bonds is telling us that a full-blown international bond and currency crisis is approaching. There is no international policy mechanism available to stop the panic short of re-opening the gold window that the U.S. closed unilaterally and “temporarily” in 1971. [Let me explain.] Words: 3025
August 31st, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
While it is true that the average consumer isn’t (and won’t soon be) spending as much as he used to, it’s not because he’s waiting for bargains. No, it’s because he’s out of credit, he’s unemployed, his house, car, motorcycle, boat, and plasma television have all either been repossessed or foreclosed upon, and his wife just left him. He’s not exactly in the mood for shopping. He’s not waiting for bargains. He’s waiting for a miracle – and I don’t think they sell those at the mall. Words: 1582
August 15th, 2011 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
SocGen has published a fantastic, must read, big picture report which compares the world in the 1980/1985-2000/2005 time period and juxtaposes it to what the author, Veronique Riches-Flores, predicts will happen over… the period from 2005/2010 to 2025/2030. She sees dramatic changes but, unfortunately, they will not be pretty. Let’s take a look at what the report has to say about the future. Words: 3025
July 12th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
When velocity is low the nation essentially winds up in a “liquidity trap” which is a situation where monetary policy is unable to stimulate the economy either through lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply. This was the condition that Japan found itself enveloped in from 1989 to present. We expect the same problem in this country and hope (really hope) to be wrong. Words: 672
July 3rd, 2011 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
