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double-dip recession
Michael Spence, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, believes there’s “probably a 50%” chance of the global economy slipping into recession. Noriel Roubini disagrees and says flatly that a recession is coming and that it is a mission impossible now to stop it. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank places the odds at 85% of a recession. David Rosenberg, another very savvy economist, says that by 2012, the chance of a second recession is 99%. Peter Schiff, who with Roubini, correctly and accurately predicted the collapse on Wall Street and ensuing recession, thinks one is 100% certain. [Let's take a look at why they hold such views.] Words: 829
August 30th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
Mark Spitznagel…warned the other day that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years. So what black swan event could cause the S&P 500 to drop down to 760? [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 856
June 11th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Economy watchers looking for a spark of life in the exhausted, debt-ridden American consumer are quick to latch on to any signs of a pulse and the latest came in the form of higher personal borrowing in March. The $6.02-billion (U.S.) increase marked the sixth consecutive monthly advance and was nearly three times higher than the most bearish forecasts. The best news of all, however, is that credit-card debt climbed, marking only the second such rise since the housing and credit market collapse. [Unfortunately, however,] “We’re only 20 per cent of the way there” says Stephen Roach. “The American consumer is toast – stuck with a legacy of excessive debt, inadequate saving, and facing high unemployment, higher under-employment, weak incomes and holding on to assets that are under water… [As such,] you can not rule out the chances of the world sliding back into recession.” Words: 1004
May 14th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
I wrote a piece recently called “Could America be Pushed over the Economic Edge?” about how Libya, Japan or even covert economic warfare from America’s enemies could push the U.S. into another financial meltdown. I received a one sentence email from my friend Jim Sinclair that said, “We are way over the edge right now.” His message gave me a sinking feeling. [Let me explain.] Words: 923
March 27th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
The bought-and-paid-for economic recovery is coming to a close. It’s time instead to deal with the very sobering new reality that a double-dip is here. Words: 756
July 26th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
The uber-Keynesians that are in control of our economic policy clearly do not think that large tax increases matter, or if they do think so they are not speaking out about them. They are conducting an experiment on our economic body without benefit of anesthesia. Here’s a prediction about which I can feel confident: if we do slip back into recession, they will blame some factor other than the tax increase and call for massive stimulus. In fact, they will probably say that the lack of stimulus was the problem in the first place. Paul Krugman will be the head cheerleader. Words: 841
July 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
At times like these, it is hardly going out on a limb to say that we are headed for hard economic times. In fact, it seems like almost everyone in the financial world is either declaring that a recession is coming or is busy preparing for one. The truth is that bad economic signs are everywhere. Words: 1171
July 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
I think we can all agree that the national economy and the global economy are both on slippery slopes. It’s time to think outside of the box. We just need an effective leader who is willing to … try some real solutions. If you don’t like my solutions, come up with others but don’t tell me America can’t be fixed. It can be fixed … you just have to be willing to do it. Words: 2371
July 3rd, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
I am worried about the possibility of a second dip – of a new recession beginning sometime in the next year or so – before the current recovery has had a chance to produce much improvement. Verbally-intuitively, the case for a second dip still seems pretty overwhelming to me. I take comfort in the knowledge that I tend to have a pessimistic bias, and in the fact that sophisticated quantitative models are generally putting the odds of a second dip quite low. On the other hand, successfully forecasting recessions has not been a strong point of quantitative models. Words: 1433
June 21st, 2010 | Posted in 2011-12 Forecasts,Economy | Read More »
Neither the White House nor the CBO have adequately considered the real impact of the very deficits they themselves are projecting. While they admit the deficits will be off the charts they fail to connect the dots from that admission to its obvious natural consequences — no fewer than FIVE ominous, vicious cycles … Words: 1017
April 12th, 2010 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
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