
It all comes down to this: We have to match growth to debt. If we can’t create miracles from growth, we have to consider inflation to reduce the value of our debt. [Those are the] only two ways out of our current global economic mess – innovation and inflation. As the saying goes, we should hope for the best (more innovation) and prepare for the worst (higher inflation). [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 1195
October 27th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
The economic news is not very encouraging these days. Everywhere I’ve looked, and I’ve looked at 10 different indicators (surveys, polls and indexes), things appear to be either down or stagnant. Let me be more explicit. Words: 1058
June 12th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
In the face of lackluster economic growth and no hopes for new stimulus anytime in the near future, the global tightening cycle may force the market back into a deflation scare. Either way, caution remains warranted in such an environment. [Let me explain further.] Words: 568
June 8th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Knowing where we are within the business cycle can help investors better position themselves for superior returns [because, as we all know,] during economic expansions equities typically outperform fixed income investments while the converse is typically the case during economic downturns. Current analysis of the business cycle suggests a period of slower growth ahead, not just in the U.S., but also globally, [but no signs of an impending recession. Let me explain.] Words: 834
June 5th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
[A look below at the trend in the U.S.'s share] of world GDP (data here) from 1969 to 2010… [shows an] amazingly stable share of world output which has remained [constant at 26.3%] for more than forty years…[and] is a testament to how America’s dynamism, resiliency, and culture of innovation and entrepreneurship have enabled us to be productive in a tough world. [Let me expand on this further.] Words: 730
June 3rd, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
[As a reult of] slowing economic growth around the world, stock markets are at the “tipping point” of a correction. Here are 15 global signs that supports that thesis. Words: 678
June 2nd, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »