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July Update: Gold & Silver Warrants Index (GSWI)

Editor — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 07:55:42 +0000

Virtually nothing is being written these days on the long-term warrants associated with a few gold and silver mining companies. I suppose that is to be expected given that there are only 22 such warrants and they are associated with only 19 companies in total.That is unfortunate because those who are in the know can take advantage of the significant leverage warrants generate in a bull market over investing in physical gold and silver, precious metals company stocks and mutual/exchange traded funds. What am I talking about – and which warrants am I referring to? Let me explain. Words: 1703

So says Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and (www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com). Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting with a link to the article* source below to avoid copyright infringement. Wilson goes on to say:

Only 167 warrants were trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange ($TSX) and the Toronto Venture Stock Exchange ($CDNX) in total as of the end of July, 2011. Of those 167 only 38 (23%) were associated with 33 commodity-related stocks with the necessary 24+ months duration to be included in my proprietary Commodity Company Warrants Index (CCWI). See here (1) for details. Only 22 of the 167 warrants (13%) are of the long term variety and associated with 19 gold and silver companies which are the constituents of my proprietary Gold and Silver Warrants Index (GSWI).

What Are Warrants?

Warrants are securities which gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to acquire the underlying securities at predetermined (i.e. exercise) prices and within a specified period of time (i.e. term or duration).

The Gold and Silver Warrants Index (GSWI)

The 19 companies in the equal dollar-weighted GSWI are primarily involved in gold and silver mining, exploration and royalty stream endeavours and consist of the following particulars:

1. Number of Warrants by Months of Duration

Since all warrants have life durations, and begin to lose value as they approach their respective expiry dates, only the 22 warrants of the 19 companies (3 companies have 2 warrants each) which have at least 24 months term before expiry are included in this analysis. The breakdown by duration of the 22 warrants is as follows:

3 (12%) 60+ months (Franco-Nevada wt.A, New Gold wt. A, Crocodile Gold wt.) ;
5 (21%) 48 – 59 months (Dundee Precious Metals wt. A, Gran Columbia wt., Primero Mining wt., Rio Novo Gold wt., Sandstorm Gold wt.A);
10 (42%) 36 – 47 months;
4 (25%) 24 – 35 months

2. Number of Companies With Warrants by Market Capitalization

Most financial writers and advisors are of the mistaken impression that warrants are associated with just penny stocks – the ‘juniors’ – but, as the breakout of the 19 gold and silver companies with LT warrants by market cap shows below, that is not entirely the case:

5 (25%) large-cap (Kinross Gold; Agnico-Eagle; Franco-Nevada; Silver Wheaton; New Gold)
4 (20%) mid/small-cap
10 (55%)micro/nano-cap in size

3. Type of Activity by Company with Warrants

Type of activity each company is involved in is as follows:

11 (58%) are producers
5 (26%) are explorers
3 (16%) are royalty stream companies of which
a) 1 deals exclusively in gold (Sandstorm Gold);
b) 1 deals exclusively in silver (Silver Wheaton) and
c) 1 deals in gold and silver plus other commodities (Franco-Nevada).

Comparing the Performance of the GSWI with Other Gold & Silver Alternatives

The GSWI was up +92% in 2010 (and +140% in 2009!) in U.S. dollar terms which was greater than the:

55% increase in a basket of mid- and small-cap miners as represented by the GDXJ;
33% increase in the HUI and GDX (large/mid-cap gold and silver mining company stocks);
30% increase in gold bullion and even the
83% in physical silver.

The GSWI has not fared as well – to date – in 2011 but given the optimism expressed in many articles (see the “Related Articles” section below) high hopes are anticipated before the year is out for the stocks of gold and silver mining companies. The associated warrants of such companies have historically outperformed the stock of the company in an up-leg, by approx. 70% on average (+74.8% in 2010) but, conversely, have underperformed the associated stock by roughly 60% in a down-leg as exemplified by the YTD performance of -36% vs. only -14.5% for their associated stock. Incidentally, with the exclusion of the LT warrant and stock of Agnico-Eagle, which are each down 53% YTD, the GSWI is down -26% and their associiated stock down -6.3% which is right in line with the HUI/GDX.

As one can see warrants are quite volatile compared to their associated stock but if one truly believes in the future performance of precious metals equities then warrants are the place to be and now is the time to get positioned. For interest sake, the large/mid-cap gold and silver company stocks (HUI/GDX) are -5.2/7.5% YTD, the mid/small-cap miners (GDXJ) are -9.6% YTD and Rob McEwen’s index of non-producers (the McEwen Junior Gold Index) is -11.9% YTD. Incidentally, the aforementioned performances of the various indices shows that, YTD, the larger capitalized the mining companies are the better their performance. For details on the differences between the various indices please review this (2) article.

The GSWI Constituent Company Specifics

The constituents of the GSWI are listed below with the following information presented as follows: Company Name; market capitalization; TSX/TSXV warrant symbol; (U.S. Pink Sheets** symbol); warrant expiry date; warrant CUSIP* Number; web site URL:

(* CUSIP stands for the Committee on Uniform Security Information Procedures of the American Bankers Association which established a format of unique codes for all North American stocks, bonds, puts, calls, warrants, etc. as assigned by Standard and Poor’s. The CUSIP number consists of a combination of 9 characters, both letters and numbers, which act as a sort of DNA for the security uniquely identifying the company or issuer and the type of security. The first 6 characters identify the issuer and are assigned in alphabetical order; the 7th and 8th characters, which can be alphabetical or numerical, identify the type of issue; the last digit is used as a check digit. (The use of such numbers is imperative for non-Canadians when placing orders with a broker to avoid any confusion related to specifically which warrant is being requested to be bought or sold.)

(** Pink Sheets is the registered name for a privately owned company that operates a centralized quotation service that collects and distributes market maker quotations for securities traded in the over-the-counter market. The service is named for the color of the sheets on which the National Quotation Bureau originally distributed bid and ask quotations for OTC securities. In 1999 Pink Sheets introduced its Electronic Quotation Service, which provides real-time quotes for OTC equities and bonds. The .pk behind a stock simply means the stock in question is traded on the pink sheets. It is a 5-alpha symbol ending in ‘F’ for Foreign).

Agnico-Eagle; $11B; T.AEM.wt.U; December 2013; 008474140; www.agnico-eagle.com
Augen Gold; $54M; V.GLD.wt; October 2014; 05104R120;www.augengold.ca
Astral Mining; $3.5M; V.AA.wt; October 2014; 046349130; www.astralmining.com
Bridgeport Ventures; $32M; T.BPV.wt; October 2014; 108404112; www.bridgeportventures.net
Brigus Gold; $189M; a) T.BRD.wt; November 2014; 109490110; b) T.BRD.wt.A; November 2014; 109490136; www.brigusgold.com
Crocodile Gold; 24M; T.CRK.wt; March 2016; N/A; www.crocgold.com
Dundee Precious Metals; $623M; T.DPM.wt.A; (DNPMF.pk); November 2015; 265269134; www.dundeeprecious.com
ECU Silver; $203M; T.ECU.wt; February 2014; 26830P121; www.ecu.ca
Endeavour Mining; $309M; T.EDV.wt.A; February 2014; G3040R133; www.endeavourminingcapital.com
Franco-Nevada; $3.6B; a) T.FNV.wt.A; June 2017; 351858139; www.franco-nevada.com
Gran Colombia; $283M; T.GCM.wt; August 2015; 38501D113; www.grancolombiagold.com
Kinross Gold; $12.3B; a) T.K.wt.C; (KNRSF.pk); September 2013; 496902172; b) T.K.wt.D; September 2014; 496902180; www.kinross.com
New Gold; $2.5B; T.NGD.wt.A; (NGDAF.pk); June 2017; 644535122; www.newgoldinc.com
Northquest; $8M; V.NQ.wt; December 2014; 666676119; www.northquest.biz
Primero Mining; $456M; T.P.wt; July 2015; 74164W114; www.primeromining.com
Rio Novo Gold; $156M; T.RN.wt; March 2015; G75700123; www.rnovogold.com
Sandstorm Gold; $187M; a) V.SSL.wt; (SNXXF.pk); April 2014; 80013R115; b) V.SSL.wt.A; (SDXXK.pk); October 2015; 80013R123; www.sandstormgold.com
Silver Wheaton; $8.5B; T.SLW.wt.U; (SLVWF.pk); September 2013; 828336149; www.silverwheaton.com
U.S. Silver; $68M; V.USA.wt; July 2014; 90343P119; www.us-silver.com

(Both Franco-Nevada’s wt.B and Papuan Precious Metals’ warrant expired during the month of July and, as such, have been removed from the GSWI. No new LT gold and/or silver mining company warrants have come to market since the last update.)

Which Warrants Should You Invest In?

Now that you know which companies constitute the LT warrant asset class, which commodities they are involved in, when their warrants expire and what their respective symbols and CUSIP numbers are, all you need to start investing in them is to decide on your approach. Warrants perform in relationship to that of their associated stock so their purchase should not be done without considerable research.

a) Given the fact that no warrant ETFs are available to buy you could buy a basket of warrants consisting of an equal number of warrants from every company mentioned above. As an example. if you were to restrict your warrants portfolio to just those of gold and silver companies, and just 100 warrants of each LT offering, it would amount to approximately $8,000 at today’s prices plus commission expenses.

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b) You could do your own due diligence of each of the 19 companies and decide which company or companies are to your liking and purchase their associated warrants accordingly.

c) You could restrict your selection of companies early on by:

management experience/reputation;
specific products (gold or silver);
business emphasis (producers, developers, explorers or royalty streamers);
market capitalization (large, mid/small, micro/nano);
countries of operation (world-wide, excl. Africa, excl. Venezula, etc.);
stock /company fundamentals;
technical analysis of stock;
expiry date of warrant;
price volatility of stock/warrant;
degree of liquidity of stock/warrant;
trading depth of stock/warrant;
currency in which stock/warrant trades

d) You could do b) or c) above and then, and only then if your primary intent is to hopefully be in a position to exercise your warrants and acquire their associated stock at some future date, finally restrict your purchases to those warrants that provide the best value related to their future leverage potential based on specific appreciation of their associated stock and the number of months duration remaining for the warrants under consideration.

To learn why you should buy the long-term warrants of commodity-related (and particularly gold and silver) companies and exactly how to go about doing so please read this (3) article.

Conclusion

Now that the ‘secret’ is out you can’t help but agree that warrants warrant your serious consideration – and now you know which ones to give consideration to and what factors should be taken into consideration before placing an order.

*http://www.munknee.com/2011/07/july-update-gold-silver-warrants-index-gswi/

Article Titles and Links Referenced Above:

The “Secret” World of Gold & Silver Company Warrants http://www.munknee.com/2011/05/the-secret-world-of-gold-silver-company-warrants/
Which Index is the Best to Use: the HUI, XAU or the GDX? http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/which-index-is-the-best-to-use-the-hui-xau-or-the-gdx/
Buying Gold & Silver Company Warrants is Easy & Profitable – Here’s How (and Why!) http://www.munknee.com/2011/05/buying-gold-silver-company-warrants-is-easy-profitable-%e2%80%93-here%e2%80%99s-how-and-why/

Related Articles:

Negative Sentiment Suggests Buying Gold & Silver Stocks NOW http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/negative-sentiment-suggests-buying-gold-silver-stocks-now/
NOW is the Best Time to Buy Gold Stocks! Here’s Why http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/now-is-the-best-time-to-buy-gold-stocks-heres-why/
Gold Mining Stocks Are CHEAP Compared to Price of Gold http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/gold-mining-stocks-are-cheap-compared-to-price-of-gold/

Editor’s Note:

Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given as per paragraph 2 above.

5 Types of ETFs You Should Absolutely NOT Buy These Days

Editor — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 18:31:27 +0000

I usually tell you about opportunities I see in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and how you can grab them but today I want to give you a list of some ETFs I think you should absolutely NOT buy! Words: 1158

In further edited excerpts from the original article* Ron Rowland (www.moneyandmarkets.com) goes on to say:

In fact, if you own any of the ETFs mentioned below, you should probably consider selling them as soon as possible. As you’ll see, your money could be much better off elsewhere.

Sell Target #1: Long-Term Bond ETFs

While I’m a big fan of bond ETFs and glad investors can now get access to different parts of the fixed-income markets in ETF format not every bond ETF is a good bet all the time and I think now is a bad time to own long-term, Treasury bond ETFs.

One ETF in this category is especially dangerous during the current environment: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV). EDV specializes in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, 20-30 years and as you probably know, bonds with long duration/maturity are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. This means that for every 1 percent rise in long-term interest rates, EDV could lose 20 percent of principal. So you should consider getting ahead of the crowd and selling EDV now.

Sell Target #2: High-Expense ETFs

Running an ETF isn’t cheap. Hence, every ETF has some level of built-in operating expenses. No surprises there — the sponsors are in it to make money. ETF sponsors also compete against each other. Therefore when someone else offers a more-or-less equivalent ETF with lower ongoing costs, you might want to take a serious look at the cheaper alternative.

Smart sellers lure customers with bargains. For instance, suppose you want a U.S. “total market” ETF — one that covers the whole domestic equity market. iShares S&P 1500 (ISI) might be a logical choice. It seeks to capture the spectrum of large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks. ISI isn’t a bad fund but Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) is just as good and has an annual expense ratio of just 0.09 percent — less than half the ISI expense ratio of 0.20 percent. VTI also holds more than twice as many stocks: around 3,400 vs. only 1,500 in ISI. If you want to own a fund of this type, VTI could make a lot more sense than ISI.

Sell Target #3: ETNs with ETF Alternatives

Some exchange-traded notes (ETNs) are worthwhile because they offer access to markets you can’t buy otherwise — or at least not easily – but when you have a choice between an ETN and an ETF you can eliminate “counterparty risk” by going with the ETF.

Here’s a good example: If you think platinum prices are going up, you might be considering iPath DJ-UBS Platinum ETN (PGM) or E-TRACS CMCI Platinum TR ETN (PTM). Both are exchange-traded notes that leave you exposed in the event the issuer runs into trouble. PPLT is a better way to trade platinum.

You can accomplish almost the same thing through ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) without worrying about counterparty risk. PPLT is legally a stand-alone entity that doesn’t depend on the issuer’s credit rating. PPLT delivers the same platinum exposure as PGM or PTM, without the unique risks of being an ETN. In fact, it seems to track the spot platinum price even better than either of the platinum-based ETNs. So if you like platinum, consider avoiding PGM and PTM and going with PPLT instead.

Sell Target #4: Illiquid, Low-Volume ETFs

With hundreds of ETFs and ETNs now covering many different market segments, it’s no wonder there is some overlap. New players have rushed to launch dozens of me-too funds but there’s no way they can all survive. I think a big shake-out is coming.

Which ETFs will drop out of the race first? The truth is they’re already going fast. Just in calendar year 2009, some 56 ETFs and ETNs were closed and delisted. I expect as many, and maybe more, to bite the dust this year. There’s no need to panic if you own an ETF that closes down. The sponsor will simply liquidate your shares and send you a check — but you’re much better off not having to deal with such a headache in the first place.

I have an early-warning system that I call “ETF Deathwatch.” I simply rank funds based on their average daily dollar volume. Those that can’t manage to trade even the small amount of $100,000 daily after an initial shakedown period are probably doomed. Some go days or weeks with no volume at all. Don’t buy them, and consider selling if you own any such funds.

As of last month I had 99 ETFs and ETNs on my Deathwatch. The top five (or the five least-active ETFs) were:
1. Elements Ben Graham Large Cap Value ETN (BVL)
2. E-TRACS CMCI Livestock Total Return ETN (UBC)
3. Elements Spectrum Large Cap US Sector Momentum ETN (EEH)
4. E-TRACS CMCI Short Platinum Excess Return ETN (PTD)
5. Barclays Asian & Gulf Currency Revaluation ETN (PGD)
You’ll notice all five are ETNs — another reason these hybrid securities deserve extra scrutiny. View the full Deathwatch list by visiting my site.

Sell Target #5: Unexpectedly Risky ETFs

All ETFs have risk. There are no guarantees. I think most investors understand this. At the same time, we should expect ETFs to at least meet their objectives, broadly speaking. If a fund is supposed to have a below-normal risk profile, we should ask some questions when it doesn’t. Investors should always know what to expect.

Dividend ETFs, for example, were all the rage a couple of years ago when the stock market was topping out. Conservative investors were enticed into funds like First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders (FDL) in the hope steady dividends would balance out market volatility. Unfortunately, FDL plunged more than 65 percent in the recent bear market, even including dividends — not at all what most investors had anticipated. Since other ETFs with similar objectives performed much better, the FDL methodology is obviously flawed in some way. It’s lightly traded and illiquid to boot. If you own FDL at a loss, now is probably a good time to take the hit and switch into a better alternative. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) is worth a look.

Seasoned investors know that the “sell” decision is just as important as the decision to buy. Today I hope I’ve given you some food for thought about your ETF choices. Consider using it to review your portfolio and see if you can improve your results.

*http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/five-etf-targets-to-consider-selling-now-37842 (Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil.)

Editor’s Note:
- The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
- Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.
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